Gio Gonzalez goes to Washington for Four Prospects

The Athletics traded their second starting pitcher of the offseason on Thursday, and got a much better return than they got for Trevor Cahill. Gio Gonzalez will spend next season with the Washington Nationals, while A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone will join the Athletics organization. The Nationals also got Rob Gilliam in the deal, who I've never actually heard of. But doing some research, he seems to be a low end prospect, who's made it to High A this past year at the age of 23. 

The Nationals will be Gonzalez's fourth organization in his young career. He'll only be 26 next season, but has already spent time in the Phillies, Athletics and White Sox (twice) organizations. The Athletics are the only time team he's ever pitched for at the Major League level though. He's a lefty, who has put up big strikeout numbers, but also big walk numbers. He's walked over 90 batters each of the last two years, and actually led the league in 2011. He's got great stuff, and generates ground balls at a good rate, 47.5% for 2011 and his career. Although the Oakland Coliseum is known as a pitchers park because of it's dimensions and vast foul territory, it hasn't really helped Gio throughout his career. He's got a BABIP of .293 for his career, and a HR/FB rate of 10.3%, which are both in line with league average. 

Nationals Park also favors pitchers a bit, and shouldn't be that big of a change for him. Gonzalez figures to slot in as a solid lefty behind the two top right handers in the Washington staff, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. The three of them should form a formidable top of the rotation, while the organization still has enough depth to fill out the back end. Due to Gonzalez's service time though, I believe he's been overvalued this offseason, and I don't believe he's as good as most people perceive. 

Everything Y[o]u need to know about Darvish

Late Monday night, it came out that the Texas Rangers had submitted the winning bid for Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish. The Winter Meetings saw the top two pitchers come off of the free agent board, but the rest of the starting pitching market has been stagnant since then, as teams were waiting for the Darvish situation to be figured out before moving on lesser pitchers. There have been trades for both Mat Latos and Trevor Cahill, but free agents like Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt have been relatively quiet.  

The aggressive bid for Darvish represents the first offseason move of a championship caliber team. The Rangers' biggest division rival, the Angels, have already made two big moves this offseason, while the Rangers have been quiet. Coming off of two consecutive trips to the World Series, the Rangers should expect added revenue next season, which should help to offset some of the initial cost of Darvish's posting fee. 

Darvish is a big right handed pitcher, who should ascend to the top of the Texas rotation. He has a reputation for attacking the strike zone, and not nibbling at the corners as much as former import Daisuke Matsuzaka. Much of Matsuzaka's troubles in recent years have come form his stubbornness around the zone. It seems like too many of Daisuke's at bats start out with him getting ahead early, only to try to nibble at the corners, ended up in deep counts and walks. Both of which can lead to a quick hook, especially in the American League East. Darvish could learn a lesson from this, and continue to attack the strike zone throughout at bats. 

Catching Up with the Weekend

The big move over this weekend involved the Reds and the Padres, but a few former Twins found new homes, and the Phillies brought back a former MVP. Most of the world spend it's time waiting for the Yu Darvish bid to be announced, but that didn't come until Monday. All things considered, it was a pretty busy weekend. Let's start with the biggest and most interesting deal though... 

The Cincinnati Reds believe that the National League Central is up for grabs, and they are going for it. Cincinnati traded Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez, and Brad Boxberger to San Diego for front line starter Mat Latos. Latos broke onto the scene in 2010, pitching 184.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA. His ERA was in line with his FIP and xFIP, but Latos wore down late in the season, after only throwing 123 innings in 2009. The Padres were in contention in 2010, and rode their young ace with a Dusty Baker-like intensity. In 2011, he managed to approach 200 innings (194.1), but saw his ERA rise to 3.47. His performance wasn't that different though, as his FIP was only 0.16 higher in 2011 then in 2010(3.00 vs 3.16). 

Latos is a big strikeout pitcher, with a career K rate of 8.64 K/9. He also gets his fair share of ground balls, with a 42.8% ground ball rate, which is near league average. He has also done a good job at controlling the free passes with a 2.83 BB/9 rate for his career. He does the things that you look for in a starting pitcher, and I'm confident that he will maintain his performance when moving from Petco Park to The Great American Ball Park. 

Red Sox Come up Short with Melancon

The Astros and Red Sox both have new front offices, but both teams are still aiming for the same goals as their last regime. The Red Sox are still gunning for the title, while the Astros are trying to rebuild their roster into something that resembles a Major League team. Yesterday these two teams agreed to a deal that sent Mark Melancon to Boston in exchange for Kyle Weiland and Jed Lowrie.

In their rebuilding efforts, the Astros have never gotten a true impact type talent, instead opting for large packages of prospects who are of lesser talent. In the past few years, for example, the Astros sent Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence to Philadelphia without receiving Dominic Brown in either deal. They also sent Michael Bourn to Atlanta without getting any of the Braves upper-echalon pitching talent. The Astros did get a lot of talent back in their deals for these three players, but none of the pieces profile to be more than Big League regulars. 

In the Melancon deal though, the Astros got back a good haul. In my view, Melancon is a high risk reliever with little upside. He has a herky-jerky motion (which has been slightly smoothed out recently), and a history of injuries. He hasn't had any injuries of note since his Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season, but I'm still not convinced that he's totally past his injury history. He's not an option to be a starter, and I don't think the Red Sox will trust him to be a closer in the American League East. I think he'll end up in the eighth inning, as the Red Sox will continue to explore the market and will eventually land Andrew Bailey or Ryan Madson. 

The Future of the Brewers

The 2011-2012 offseason could probably be classified as a mild disaster for the Milwaukee Brewers, although they're trying to make the best of it. They've gotten a new left side of the infield, but look likely to start 2012 without their top two offensive players. They've fortified their bullpen, but not at a cost that they'd like. 

Along with defense in general, the left side of the Brewers' infield was clearly their weak point. Yuniesky Betancourt has been a replacement level player for the past four years, and the Brewers upgraded slightly with the Alex Gonzalez acquisition. Gonzalez and Betancourt are similar offensively, but Gonzalez handles the glove much better. After two suburb years, Casey McGehee was a disaster in 2011. Coming into last season, McGehee had a reputation for hitting lefties. In 2011 though, McGehee hit just .169/.228/.185 with no home runs off southpaws. The Brewers decided to upgrade this spot by signing the best third baseman available, Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez is aging, and his defense isn't any better than McGehee. He has been a strong offensive player throughout his career, but much of it might have been a result of Wrigley Field. He's a career .308/.373/.552 hitter at Wrigley, as opposed to .284/.342/.500 for his career. 

By acquiring Ramirez though, the Brewers were able to flip Casey McGehee for bullpen help in the form of Jose Veras. Veras is an average option for the bullpen, and he's under team control until 2014. The Breweres also retained the services of Francisco Rodriguez via Rodriguez accepting arbitration. The Brewers offered K-Rod arbitration hoping he'd turn it down, and look for a multiyear deal as a closer. The closer market was flush though, and Rodriguez deemed to better to pitch for Milwaukee for another year and test the market next offseason. If Rodriguez had turned down arbitration, and signed somewhere else, the Brewers would be in line to get draft choices in return for his departure. 

Trevor Cahill to the Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks for a sniff of success in 2011, and are looking for more. Late Friday night word came out that Oakland would trade starting pitcher Trevor Cahill and relief pitcher Craig Breslow to the Diamondbacks for three prospects. The package from Arizona is centered around Jarrod Parker, but also includes Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook. 

Cahill will join talented young starters Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson as the Diamondbacks will look for the second straight N.L. West title next season. Cahill, only 23, is an extreme ground ball pitcher, who still needs to tap into his strikeout potential a little to become a top of the rotation option. The switch in leagues should help his numbers, and the move from the Oakland Coliseum to Chase Field shouldn't affect his too adversely, as his ground ball profile should translate. He's has a very club friendly contract, which is almost Andrew Friedman-ian in it's terms. Cahill is locked up through 2015, with team options for 2016 and 2017. 

Craig Breslow will join a Diamondbacks bullpen which was much improved in 2011. Arizona's new front office has done a great job of fixing the pitching staff in it's short tenure, and this move only reinforces what they did last year. 

Jarrod Parker is a major league ready starter, who throws four pitchers. His fastball sits around 93 and he mixes it with a good changeup and slider. He also throws a curveball, but it's his fourth best pitch at this point. He has good strikeout potential, and also had solid control. He's already had Tommy John surgery, and has a small frame. Injuries could be a problem in the future, but when healthy, Parker profiles as a top of the rotation starter. 

Collin Cowgill is a fringe regular as an outfielder. He can play centerfield, and has showed good on base skills in the minor leagues. He struck out too often in his small sample this past season, but doesn't have a track record of striking out often in the minors. He could be patrol center field for the Athletics in the future, but will more likely be a fourth outfielder. 

Ryan Cook is a relief pitcher who could be in the Oakland bullpen sooner then later. I don't view him as anything special, but he's young, cost controlled, and could be an average relief option for the Athletics in the near future. 

With Parker's injury history, I think Arizona did good in this trade. Cahill is a proven Major League starter, and should be fine in Chase Field with his high ground ball rate. Already accruing three years of service time though, he didn't fit in with the time table that Oakland was looking for. Jarrod Parker does profile as an impact player in a time table that matches Oakland's other talent. If he stays healthy, it could prove to be a good move for the Athletics. Cowgill should start patrolling the outfield in 2012, but the club will probably upgrade the position before contending. Ryan Cook could bolster the Athletics bullpen in the future, but probably not in a high leverage role.

Some Small Things, and Matt Moore

The Winter Meetings have ended, but teams are still maneuvering, and trying to position themselves better for next season. In the past few days, while we've been recovering from the Pujols fiasco, there have been a few smaller, yet still significant moves.

The Brewers upgraded their shortstop position by not resigning Yuniesky Betancourt. Instead, they signed Alex Gonzalez. Gonzalez offers a similar offensive production (72 wRC+ for Betnacourt and 75 wRC+ for Gonzalez this past season), and also offers better defense. Gonzalez used to be one of the better fielding shortstops in the league, and is still above average, even at this point in his career. That's a huge upgrade over what Betancourt offers, who essentially has the same range as a tree. With Fielder coming off of the books, Milwaukee should have money to spend. They still have a few holes, and could address them with that money. Their roster is thin, and their minor league system doesn't offer much reinforcement. They will need to blow their team up soon, but with Pujols leaving the division, they could view themselves as the favorites in the National League Central. 

The Angels: The Eagles and Heat of the MLB

What the Marlins were to the first part of the Winter Meetings, the Angels were to the final day of the conference. From my recollection, the Angels actually made three moves during the week, they got the immortal LaTroy Hawkins, and then a few scrubs names Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. All in all, the Angels committed about $330 million to these three players over the length of their deals. It's a huge commitment, and it's the type of money that Angels' owner Arturo Moreno has wanted to spend for a few years now. In the past years, they've made runs at a lot of big names, including Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Roy Halladay (via trade), Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Miguel Cabrera (via trade), Alfonso Soriano, and Paul Konerko among others. 

Even while missing out on these big names though, they've remained near the top of the American League, and only failed to win 80 games once since they won the World Series in 2002. Through the Scioscia era, the Angels have relied on their pitching and defense to win games. Their offensive philosophy has been to make contact at a high rate, and get on base, and then run the bases efficiently to produce runs. They have always had a high team batting average, but not necessarily a high team on base percentage. They've struggled for power, and have been somewhat at the mercy of their BABIP. The strategy seems to fit their ballpark, as the Big A has suppressed offense, and an outfield which plays very big. The moves that they have made in the past have been an attempt to bring in power, with Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells, but with mixed results. The acquisitions of Alberto Callaspo and Torii Hunter did however fit their defense/batting average first premiss though. 

Winter Meetings Roundup

Throughout the entirety of the Winter Meetings, we had two big name free agent signings, a lot of smaller moves, and the Rule 5 draft. I'm going to try to cover as much as I can here, so I'm not even going to try to use transitions, just headings, and my thoughts on them. If you're looking for stuff about the Angels, I'm planning on doing a whole post about them later, so you won't find that here.

Mets: 

The Mets signed two free agent relievers, and pulled off a trade. The 2011 Toronto closers, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco, both signed with the Mets. I'm assuming that the Mets weren't willing to hand Bobby Parnell the closer role quite yet, and he should slide into a 7th inning role with the club. Frank Francisco is a better pitcher than Rauch, when healthy, and should be first in line for saves in New York. Francisco also got a two year deal, as opposed to Rauch's one year deal, which signifies that the Mets believe he's the better player. Citi Field, even with the fences in next year, should help Francisco's problem with the home run ball also. 

In a separate move, the Mets acquired another relief pitcher when they traded Angel Pagan to the Giants for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The Giants have a glut of relievers, and leveraged one of them to get younger in center field. Torres and Pagan have similar skillets, with the difference being Pagan's defensive downturn in 2011. Pagan went from a well above average center fielder, to a well below average center fielder by the metrics. San Francisco must either believe that this was an aberration, or plan to play him in a corner spot, or enjoy having terrible defense up the middle. 

Jose Reyes, First Hundred Million Dollar Man of the Offseason

For a day when I suspected that most general managers and front office types would be on airplanes, Sunday proved to be quite the busy little day. There was a huge signing, a very minor signing, and then there was the Manny Ramirez news, which I feel is irrelevant. 

Late Sunday night, word came out that the Marlins had agreed on a six year, $106 million deal. Reyes is coming off one of his best years since breaking into the majors in 2003. He spent some time on the disabled list with a leg injury, but finished up with 126 games played, and a .337/.384/.493 slash line. Reyes is a dynamic player, who offers value through defense at a premium position, on base skills, speed, and decent power. He's a superstar when healthy, but has had very a myriad of injuries to his legs. 

Since much of Reyes' value comes from speed and defense, his legs are crucial. At the beginning of his career, Reyes played shortstop at an elite or near elite level defensively. In the past three or four years though, he's been only average defensively. He's dealt with hamstring injuries and other problems with his legs which I don't think ever went away. His overall numbers might suggest that he's been an average defender since 2007, but they're most likely weighted down from times when Reyes was playing at less than 100% I don't think he'll ever perform at an elite level again, but I think that when fully healthy he should play solidly above average. 

Dodgers get Their Orango Mocha Capuano

"You know what could really help you sort through these important issue?"
"What?"
"Orange mocha frappuccino!" 

That's probably my favorite line from the movie Zoolander, and it's what I always think of when I hear the name "Chris Capuano." I once missed out on viewing the movie in college because I got stuck in an elevator between the first and second floor of a building. I'm not that lazy (well, maybe), we were trying to get to a party, and had didn't know where the stairs were. 

Either way, the Dodgers signed Chris Capuano to a two year, ten million dollar (with an option for a third year) deal this past week. Capuano has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, and at the age of 32, has only thrown 252 innings since his 28 year old season. This past year though, Capuano made 31 starts and threw 186 innings for the Mets. His 4.55 ERA is misleading though, as his BABIP was .311, and his HR/FB rate was 12% in Citi Field. Both of these are slightly higher than you'd expect, as his FIP and xFIP show (4.04 and 3.67 respectively). If Capuano is able to stay healthy, his peripherals say he should be able to put up four wins above replacement over the next two years, making it a good deal for the Dodgers. Of course, there's also the possibility he gets injured again, and could be either out for a significant amount of time, or be forced into retirement. 

The addition of Capuano essentially fills out the rotation for the Dodgers. The have Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, and Ted Lilly at the top, while they've pledged the fifth spot to Nate Eovaldi. Slotting Capuano into the fourth spot solidifies their rotation, and essentially eliminates the chances that the Dodgers will bring back veteran Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda has been a favorite of mine for a few seasons. I always loved his peripherals, and he always put up a great WHIP. Kuroda will be 37 next year, and hasn't shown any allegiance to the MLB. He's expressed desires to stay in Los Angeles, or move back to Japan. The Capuano signing makes a return to the Dodgers unlikely, but Kuroda could still end up with Anaheim. The Angels are looking for a starting pitcher, and I believe that Kuroda still has enough left to perform a a middle rotation option for two more years. 

As far as the Dodgers go though, I haven't been a fan of most of their moves so far this offseason. They have the reigning N.L. Cy Young and MVP, and a lot of mediocre surrounding that. So far this offseason, they've signed more talent that falls between replacement level and MLB regular. Without even including the Matt Kemp extension, I'm surprised at how much they've spent this offseason, considering they don't have an owner to sign the checks. The problem is, none of their signings really inspire any real hope. Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy, Chris Capuano? The Dodgers rotation looks to be solid, but thin, while there offense looks as if it will go only as far as Matt Kemp takes them.

The Angels, the Blue Jays, and the Mathis Deal

Since the end of 2009, Alex Anthopoulos has been the General Manager of the Toronto Blue Jays. I've been a fan of just about every move that he's made since taking over. My biggest qualm came when he traded away Mike Napoli for oft-injured relief pitcher Frank Francisco. That deal came on the heals of Anthopoulos trading Vernon Wells contract for Napoli though, so I gave him a pass.

I'm fairly convinced though, that a clause in the Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli deal was the root for Anthopoulos's most recent deal. With multiple backup catcher types available on the free agent market, the Blue Jays recently traded away Brad Mills for the services of Jeff Mathis. From the outside, I cannot find a line of reasoning that explains why the Blue Jays would acquire Mathis.

The Blue Jays can't view Mathis as their new starter, or long term solution. J.P. Arencibia showed he could handle the starting role, and Travis D'Arnaud is their long answer. Mathis is going to be brought in as a backup, and will make at least $1.7 million in 2012 before becoming a free agent prior to the 2013 season.

I'm fine with Mathis as a backup, but I think that they could get a better option, or a cheaper option, or an option that didn't cost a pitcher. Mathis should only play in about 45 games next season, and as long as he's suitable defensively, shouldn't made too much impact on the team. The pitcher they gave up, Brad Mills, hasn't shown much in his three stints in the majors. He's doesn't generate many ground balls (32.6%), and walks too many people (5.89 BB/9). He's a lefty, but doesn't profile as a lefty specialist with his fastball changeup arsenal. He'll be 27 at the start of next season, and probably won't turn into anything, but there's still to reason to give him up to acquire one of the worst players in the majors.

Bernie Williams and the Hall of Fame

The new names for the Hall of Fame came out this week, and the new name with the most initial backing this year seems to be Bernie Williams. My last memory of Bernie Williams was of him being thrown out at home plate by about 50 feet while playing for Puerto Rico in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. I can't find the video online, but I remember a very slow moving Williams lumbering towards home at the age of 40, and really having no chance. 

A player has to have a very special career to make it into the Hall of Fame his first time on the ballot. Although I'm not sure how players improve their standing in the subsequent years, they must be doing something, because guys tend to get more votes as the years past, even though they're still retired, and aren't adding anything to their legacies on the field. 

When I am trying to decide whether or not I think someone should be in the Hall of Fame, I tend to look at two different things; the length of his career, and the five or seven year span that represent the player's peak years. Williams was only in the league for 16 years, which is a good run, but not so much when compared to other Hall of Fame players. He had a good peak, posting a .321/.406/.531 composite line from 1995-2002. Those are good numbers, and really stand out when you consider that Williams played a premium defensive position in center field. But there are definitely negatives… 

By all defensive metrics, besides gold gloves, Williams was miscast as a center fielder. Most defensive metrics crush Williams' defense, and portray him as more of a corner outfielder playing center. At his worst, fangraphs shows him costing his team three wins in a single season based solely on defense. That's more than twice as bad as any center fielder rated in 2011. Combine his bad defense with the fact that he played his most productive years in the heart of the steroid era, and he played half of his games in offense-friendly Yankee Stadium, and his overall numbers don't appear to be special anymore. 

One thing that we can't look past about Williams however are his playoff numbers. I'm not a big proponent of using playoff numbers to validate a player because they usually occur in very small sample sizes. When looking at all time numbers, the counting stats are skewed too, because of the added rounds in recent generations. But Bernie Williams did have a 545 plate appearances on the playoffs, which equates to almost a full season. And when you presume that he wouldn't be facing any number five type starters, and would be facing fewer garbage time relievers, his slash line of .275/.371/.480 does shine. 

Overall, I can't look past the fact that Williams played in an offensive environment, and was probably more suited for a corner outfield spot. I see the Hall of Fame as the "Best of the Best," and not the "Hall of the Very Good." Bernie Williams doesn't make the cut for me, but it's close. Maybe if I figure out what all these other players are doing to increase their votes, and follow Bernie with the same process, he'll get it, but not at this time.

Marlins Begin Their Spree with Heath Bell

The newly renamed Miami Marlins have been linked to just about all of the big free agents this offseason. They've reportedly made offers to Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Nap Lajoie, Jorge Posada, and Mark Buehrle. None of the big name free agents have signed yet, but the Marlins have landed their first big catch of the offseason in the form of Heath Bell. 

Their deal with Bell is a three year deal, which pays an average annual value of $9 million and locks up Bell through his age 36 season. The Marlins don't have an "established" closer on their roster thanks to the antics of Juan Carlos Oviedo (the pitcher formally known as Leo Nunez). And although Steve Ciskek seemed to be ready to take over the role, the Marlins decided to go after a bigger name instead. 

Bell broke into the majors as a reliever at the age of 26, but has only been closing games for three years. He's topped 40 saves each of the past three years, and has averaged more than a strikeout per inning during that span, with a ground ball rate of over 40% each season. That all sounds well and good, but Bell's 2.36 ERA over that span has benefited from a 4.3 HR/FB rate, thanks in part to Petco Park. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.1 K/9 in 2010 to 7.3 this past season. The dip in strikeout rate is even more alarming when you factor in that he threw nearly 45% breaking balls this past season as opposed to only 30% in 2010. Breaking balls should induce more swings and misses, and the fact that Bell went away from his fastball could be an indication that he didn't have as much faith in it. Although his velocity remained consistent, Texasleaguers.com shows that it didn't move as much in 2011 as it did in 2010. 

Iannetta for Chatwood Makes Sense for Both Sides

The new Angel's regime made it's first move Wednesday night, by trading away Tyler Chatwood to the Rockies for Chris Iannetta. It seems like it's finally apparent to the Angels that Jeff Mathis isn't a Major League catcher, and represented the biggest hole on the roster. The deal is a huge win for the Angels, as they get a catcher who can get on base as a good clip, and has enough power to hit 20 home runs, even in The Big A. 

Iannetta has never really gotten an opportunity to get consistent playing time in Colorado. He's been bounced between the majors and minors throughout his career. He's also has an injury history, which is a red flag for a catcher. Iannetta has a career walk rate of 14%, but I'd expect that to drop in the American League because of the better pitching, and because he won't be hitting in front of the pitcher anymore. Iannetta didn't have a future with the Rockies, and the move was probably the best thing for both him and the club. 

As a result, I don't think it's out of the question that the Angels could carry three catchers on their roster to open up next season. Up-and-comer Hank Conger bears a similar profile to Iannetta, and doesn't need anymore time in the minors. Conger's defense is suspect, but he hits enough to be used at catcher and possibly at designated hitter. Jeff Mathis is the only one who I believe is in danger of losing his roster spot. He doesn't hit enough, and his defense seems to be overstated. That said, he is still probably the best defensive catcher on the roster, and that's still something that Mike Scoscia values. 

In return for Iannetta, the Rockies receive Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood made 25 starts last year, at the age of 21. He wasn't ready for the big leagues, and struggled to keep his ERA under five. His K/BB ratio was barely above 1, and he benefited from his park and the defense behind him. I don't think he has much upside, and I think he'll struggle in Coors Field. The Rockies will start him in the rotation, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in the bullpen. 

To replace Iannetta behind the plate, the Rockies signed free agent Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez will be 36 next year, but brings average defense, solid contact skills, decent on base skills, and could hit 15 home runs in Colorado. He had a disappointing second half in 2011, but put up a composite .280/.348/.413 line during his three seasons in Cincinnati. Hernandez will serve as a stop gap for the Rockies until Wilon Rosario is ready. Rosario is a top prospect in the Rockies system, but hasn't been to Class-AAA yet. His bat show promise, but has developed slowly. He should start 2012 in AAA, and could be up by the end of the year, but I would be surprised if he got more than a cup of coffee in 2012. 

Iannetta is still under team control through 2013, and Colorado decided to move him to open up the position for whenever Rosario is ready. The Angels fixed their hole at catcher by acquiring Mike Napoli light, and only gave up a back-end starter in the process. Anaheim is in line to have their highest payroll ever this season (thank you Vernon Wells), but it looks like as a result of this move, they'll have to acquire a starting pitcher. They have a solid top three with Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana, but were relying on Chatwood and Jerome Williams in the back-end, with little depth. They've been talking to C.J. Wilson, but I'd expect them to settle for a lesser guy due to financial constraints. Their ballpark and defense also allows them to hide the deficiencies of lesser pitchers.

Offseason Notes and Thoughts 11/30/11

Now that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has been reached, teams are figuring out the new playing field. We've seen players continue to be signed, and trades continue to be made. None of the bigger names have come off of the board, and we haven't seen any blockbuster trades, but with the Winter Meetings starting next week, we could see the action start up quickly. Never the less, here's my take on what's been going on around the league in the past week or so. 

Let's start in Cleveland, where the Indians moved Luis Valbuena to Toronto for cash. The move makes sense because Valbuena hasn't produced for the Indians at the major league level, and is at least third on their depth chart for utility infielder behind Jason Donald and Cord Phelps. Valbuena has fallen out of favor in Cleveland, and was in danger on being dropped off of their 40man roster. Toronto brings Valbuena in mostly as an insurance policy. They're likely to try and resign Kelly Johnson, or another proven free agent. But if they are unable to, Valbuena could have a shot as their opening day starter at second base. Valbuena has put of good numbers in Class-AAA for both Cleveland and Seattle, but is yet to get similar results at the major league level. 

The Rays made a tandem of moves in the past week which are joined at the hip. They sent John Jaso to the Mariners for Josh Lueke, and then replaced Jaso with Jose Molina. I like the addition of Jaso to the Mariners, as he forms a natural platoon with Miguel Olivo. Olivo is the better defender, offers more power, and bats right handed. Jaso is a left handed hitter, with fringy defense, but has better defensive skills thanks to a career 12.2% walk rate. Eric Wedge values defense at catcher, so Jaso might not get a lot of playing time to begin next season, but should eventually garner more starts than Olivo, although Olivo's defense could be substituted in at the end of games. Josh Lueke is a hard throwing right hander, and would probably be a valuable piece in any bullpen. He's a solid pitcher, who could settle into a 7th or 8th inning role with the Rays, and is under club control for a few years. Jose Molina is a typical Molina catcher. His value comes in his defense, which the Rays must believe that they need, because Jaso's offensive skills are much better. 

A Starting Plan for the Rebuilding White Sox

The Chicago White Sox can call it whatever they want, but they definitely are making the right choice by rebuilding not just the major league roster, but the organization as a whole. There are a few bad contracts on the roster that are really hampering the team. The minor league system is thin and weak thanks to their all-or-nothing strategy, which has largely blown up on them. First rounders like Jarrod Mitchell and Keenyn Walker, along with second round pick Trayce Thompson are great athletes, but have struck out in over 25% of their plate appearances in the minors. None of them have made it out of Class-A ball, and are perfect examples of the White Sox draft philosophy. Another recent first round pick, Chris Sale, will attempt to transition to the rotation, but might end up being a full-time reliever. Using first round picks on relief pitchers is never a good idea. 

The White Sox rebuilding process will look to shed payroll from the major league roster, while replenishing the minor league system. Although we tend to focus on the bad contracts on their team, they do have a few good assets who could be on the move. From the rotation, both Gavin Floyd and John Danks could find new homes this offseason. I've never been as infatuated with Danks as the rest of the league. He wears his hat crooked and had a good year in 2008. Other than that, he's a pretty average starting pitcher. There are teams still believe Danks is something more, like the Yankees. The Yankees have shown interest in Danks in the past and my first move would be to try to trade Danks to the Yankees, and see if I could pry some of their young starting pitchers of one of their young catchers away. If Danks can't be moved to the Yankees, anywhere would really do, as long as they get a decent return. Danks is still young enough where the team getting him could extend him through his prime, and still have a solid investment at worst. Gavin Floyd is a little older, but should still bring back something nice. Floyd has one year left on his current deal, and a team option for 2013. Floyd posted a 1.16 WHIP and 3.73 xFIP in 2011, and definitely has value as a right handed middle rotation starter. 

My Take on LeBlanc for Baker

In a blockbuster deal on Wednesday, the Padres acquired John Baker from the Marlins for Wade LeBlanc. I'm normally not a fan of trading away pitching depth, especially for a player with a history of injuries and has only played 39 games in the past two seasons. In this case though, I'm going to make an exception. 

The Padres are the club who I feel are in the best place to trade away pitching. I don't mean "best place" in reference to their depth, but rather their actual location. Playing half of their games in Petco Park allows the Padres to get by with lesser pitching, and also let their pitching develop at the major league level, and have some confidence that they're not going to be crushed. 

Wade LeBlanc had a good year as a 24 year old in San Diego, but the lefty has posted a 4.39 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 225.2 inning the past two seasons. He's spent time in the minors during that time, and has really been the epitome of replacement level. He's a fly ball pitcher, with average control, and only a 16.2% strikeout rate. Florida has been looking for starting pitcher, and my best guess is that they've obtained a backend starter in exchange for a player who they've not been able to rely on. 

San Diego looks at the deal as giving away a replacement level pitcher for a left handed catcher, who could help an offense that was as the bottom of the league this past season. Baker's offensive value is mostly tied up in his patient approach at the plate, as he boasts a career walk rate of 10.8%. Petco Park is known to kill left handed hitters, but Baker also has an opposite field stroke which could help to mitigate the effect of the park. 

San Diego's incumbent catcher is Nick Hundley. Hundley isn't anything special, but as a right handed hitter, he does hit lefties well. Both Hundley and Baker have a history of injuries. With one being left handed and one being right handed, they could for a suitable platoon, which could also help to keep the pair healthy. 

Florida feels like they have a good enough offense, and are expecting to get Jose Reyes to add to it. They've wanted to add pitching, but don't want to pay the big money for a free agent. LeBlanc isn't going to make a large impact, but if he can make 25 starts, and have any form of success, I think Florida will be happy. San Diego won't miss LeBlanc, and is taking a flyer to try to improve their offense. It seems like a deal that makes sense for both teams, but San Diego got the side with the higher ceiling.

A Crawford for Werth Swap

I heard in passing on the Baseball America podcast from 11/17 that the Nationals should offer to trade Jayson Werth to Boston for Carl Crawford. It sounds kind of crazy, but when you think about it, it also kind of makes sense. While neither team is thrilled with the performances that their players gave in the first year of their mega-deals, I think that both teams are too stubborn to give up on their guy after one year... but what if.

When you look at it from the players perspective, you would think that the move would have a chance to jumpstart them after down years. Crawford, who didn't seem to adapt well to the pressures of the big market, the media, and the expectation of winning, would move to Washington.  A place where the expectations are lower. He wouldn't be expected to take them to the playoffs, and could move back up to the top of the order. 

Jayson Werth, on the other hand, would move to Boston, an environment similar to that of Philadelphia, where he performed well. He could move back down in the order, where he appears more comfortable. He could drive in runs, instead of being expected to get on base and score them. He'd be a complimentary piece in Boston, and find himself in a very similar role to that of his Philadelphia days. 

Assuming that the players would respond well to the swap, the next question is; how the teams would respond? In Boston, they're now looking for a right fielder with J.D. Drew now a free agent, never to return. Werth would fit well in Boston's right field. He's a plus defender in a corner spot, and right field in Fenway is much more demanding than left. His right handed bat would also bring balance to the Red Sox lineup. 

Crawford also fits very well with what Washington seems to be doing. Bryce Harper will take over that right field job whenever he is ready, and that would force Werth out of position, possibly to a brutal center field. Crawford is a left fielder, who's defensive value would be realized in Nationals Park, instead of being muted by the Green Monster of Fenway Park. Crawford could also serve as the table setter at the top of the Nationals lineup that they've been searching for. And given the green light, could run wild in the National League. 

It's a trade that I don't think will ever be made, but we have seen teams swap bad contracts. The most recent one that comes to mind is the Mariners sending Carlos Silva to the Cubs in exchange for Milton Bradley.  After which, Carlos Silva played well for a half season.  It makes you wonder though, if each team had interest in the other player last offseason, since they seem like more natural fits in the opposite city.

Joe Nathan, MVPs, and the CBA

Joe Nathan signed with the Rangers on Monday night. The deal is two years, with a optional third year, and will pay Nathan $12.5 million. Nathan will probably be the new closer in town, with Mike Adams staying in his setup role. I like the addition for the team, but don't like the contract. Nathan will be 37 by the time next season begins, and although he came back from Tommy John surgery, and looked good in 2011, that's a lot of money for a guy in his late thirties.

One statistic that jumps out at me from 2011 is Nathan's ground ball rate. Last season his ground ball rate was 35%, his worst mark since 2004. This was mostly due to a jump in his jump in his line drive rate, which was 17.8% in 2011, and only 12.3% in 2009. His fly ball rate remained constant from 2009 to 2011, at just over 47%. Nathan posted a HR/FB ratio of 11.5% in 2011, and if he doesn't generate more ground balls in 2012, he could end up giving up too many long balls to be effective. 

Nathan's strikeout rate in 2011 was 22.5%. While that's not bad, he hadn't posted a mark below 26% since moving to the bullpen. One would think that some of those extra balls that are being put into play are going to wind up as hits, although they didn't in 2011 (.250 BABIP). Extra base runners are never a good thing, especially when you can't rely on a ground ball double play. Nathan should be a solid reliever in Texas, but I don't expect him to get back to the dominant state form his past. 

Ruben Amaro acquires Wigginton, Facepalms

Ruben Amaro continues to confuse me with the moves he makes. After signing Jonathan Papelbon, I though it meant that they'd spend what it takes to put the best team available on the field next season. This means bringing back Jimmy Rollins, trying to bring back Roy Oswalt, and getting a Michael Cuddyer type. I mean, why pay big money for a top shelf closer if you're not going all in? There's no reason to have a big name closer if you're not going to compete. Closers are a luxury, not a necessity. 

With Michael Cuddyer yet to sign, I was surprised to see the Phillies acquire Ty Wigginton this evening. Dave Cameron, from fangrpahs.com, said it pretty well on twitter, "If Michael Cuddyer couldn't hit or field, he'd be Ty Wigginton. Phillies bought the clearance version, I guess." Now, assuming that there wasn't a huge demand for the services of Mr. Wigginton, I'm not sure why the Phillies went after him without exhausting their efforts towards Cuddyer. That is, of course, unless they're trying to limit spending. In which case, they shouldn't have spent so much money on a closer. The Phillies organization doesn't seem to think before they act, and continue to perplex me. 

Wigginton will play a little in all four corner spots. He can come off the bench and pinch hit, but isn't particularly adept anywhere defensively. The move fills a need for the Phillies, as a super-sub type, but they could have done better, and come back to Wigginton as a secondary option. 

As for the Rockies, the move does a few good things for them. They'll save about $2 million. Since trading away Ubaldo, they appear to be trying to rebuild a little bit. The move clears an older player off of the roster, and make room for a younger player. Their corner infield will consist of Todd Helton at first base, with Ian Stewart and Jordan Pacheco splitting time at third. Pacheco is the only righty of the bunch, and should get starts at both first and third against lefties. He'll spell the older Helton, and hide Stewart, who posted a .336 OPS against lefties in 2010 while striking out 40% of the time. 

At the plate, Pacheco is an on base guy. In the minors his cumulative OBP was .377, but it came with just a .123 ISO. He's similar to current day Todd Helton, but has a little wrinkle. He's spent significant time at catcher during his minor league career, and will serve at the emergency catcher for the Rockies. He's not going to be someone you want behind the dish, but he'll be nice insurance in case the Rockies want to pinch hit their backup catcher, or they find themselves in some sort of pinch. 

I think from the Rockies perspective, they wanted to shed a little bit of payroll, but it also shows confidence in their young players. Especially Ian Stewart, who has a train wreck of a season in 2011. They will receive a player to be named later or cash as compensation for shedding the aging, overpaid, replacement level player to Philadelphia.

Offseason Notes 11/20/11

This past week has been an active one. None of the big names have found new homes yet, but some low key players decided on where they're going to play next year. While these guy probably won't be the their teams on their backs and carry them into October, but before last year started, we didn't think that Mike Napoli was that kind of player either. 

Let's start out in the American League Central, with a player who, in this free agent class, strikes the closest resemblance to Napoli. Ryan Doumit signed a one year deal with the Twins. This appears to be a bargain for the Twins and a great fit. Doumit signed a one year, $3 million deal with the Twins. It seems like a good price for the Twins since Doumit put up a 1.8 WAR in only 77 games last season. At the going rate, they're paying for less than one win from Doumit, as long as they can keep him on the field, he should deliver that. Doumit also has experience at both catcher and first base. While he'll probably be more of an outfield option for the Twins, having insurance for Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau is always a good thing. 

The second news item coming out of the A.L. Central is Gerald Laird signing back with the Tigers. Laird was the World Series with the Cardinals this past year, but played in Detroit in 2009 and 2010. Laird only played in 37 games last season, and with the way Jim Leyalnd used Alex Avila last season, Laird should see about six innings of work in 2012. But seriously, the Tigers are familiar with Laird, and I assume they'll get what they were looking for from Laird. 

Looking into the Future of the Washington Nationals

The other day, one of my friends asked me how I feel about the Nationals organization. Off of the top of my head I knew that they had a lot of good young talent, a few solid pieces at the major league level, and seemed to have brighter days ahead of them. When I really looked at what they had down on the farm, I really liked what I saw. 

Much like what the Rays have done, The Nationals have leveraged their recent suckitude to acquire a lot of top ten picks in the past decade. Along with a few trades, they've built a fairly strong farm system. They got lucky in the sense that the two years that they got the number one overall pick, there were clearcut number one overall talents available for them to draft. To their credit though, they picked these player, and spent the money required to sign them. The first of these two picks, Stephen Strasburg, has ace potential, but is coming off of injury. His 2012 season will probably look similar to what we saw in 2011 from Jordan Zimmermann. They probably won't be competing for anything, and will limit his inning to set him up for a full work load (or something close to it) in 2013. Twenty thirteen is also when I expect Bryce Harper, their other number one overall pick, to be ready for a full time role on the team. Harper advanced to Class-AA in 2011, and just finished tearing up the Arizona Fall League for the second straight year. He should start 2012 in AA, and will probably finish out the minor league season in AAA. He could get a cup of coffee in the Bigs next September, but nothing more. 

Harper and Strasburg represent the core of the future of this organization, but the organization offers much more than that. At the big league level, they have a nice core on offense and defense. Ryan Zimmerman has been the face of the organization in recent years, and hasn't had much support. Zimmerman spent some time on the disabled list in 2011, but the Nationals offense still put up good numbers. 

Matt Kemp's New Deal Seems Fair to Both Sides

Just a few hours after posting an earlier post today, Matt Kemp and the Dodgers agreed to a eight year $160 million extension. It had been rumored around on Monday, but wasn't official. Since then, I've spent some time looking at the deal, and the player, and actually think it's a pretty fair deal for both sides.

I like the deal from the Dodgers perspective because in an offseason where they aren't aloud to talk with free agents (at least not until they find a new owner), locking up Kemp was most likely at the top of their priority list. The signing is the first bright spot for the Dodgers fans in a while, and adds stability and cost certainty for whoever ends up buying them. 

On the player side, Kemp's average annual value (AAV) will be $20 million for the duration of the contract. To compare Kemp's deal to others, we need to only look at extensions, and not players on the open market. Players getting extensions are only negotiating with one team, and are generally younger than those hitting free agency. Some similar situations to Kemp's are Troy Tulowitzki's with the Rockies, Adrian Gonzalez's with the Red Sox, and Miguel Cabrera's with the Tigers. All these players got extensions for similar AAV, and are locked up into the mid thirties. They all have had great careers so far, and have produced after signing their big deal. The difference for the Dodgers is that Kemp has really only had one MVP caliber year. 

Offseason Notes and Thoughts 11/14/11

Over the past week a few newsworthy things have transpired. There have been a few signings, a notable hiring, and continued speculation over whether or not the Marlins will be able to keep their 2012 payroll below that of the Yankees. Of the three big moves made in the past week, I like one of them, but I'm not too big on the other two. 

The Aaron Hill signing was I thought a great move by the Diamondbacks. Hill got two years and $11 million from Arizona, who locked him up for his age 30 and 31 seasons. He seems to fit the mold of what Arizona has been going for under their new regime. Hill isn't a big walk guy (career 6.6%), but also isn't a big strikeout guy (career 13.1%). He's very dependent on BABIP to be productive, and has gotten very unlucky in the past two seasons with a .233 BABIP. Part of that can be justified by his high fly ball rate, and especially his infield fly ball rate. He's shown himself to be a slightly above average defender throughout his career, and should continue to be for the length of the contract. Hill's power is a little perplexing, as it seems to come and go from season to season. Over the past four years his ISO has been .098, .213, .189, and .110 in 2011. His ISO was .177 in his short stint in Arizona last season, and Chase Field could prove to be a friendly park for the fly ball happy second baseman. The Diamondbacks payed for a player who's only slightly better than one win above replacement for each of the two years of the deal. In Hill's past two seasons his WAR has averaged out to one, even with his atrocious BABIP. A decent defender with any sort of regression from his BABIP should turn out to be a good deal for Arizona, and leave Hill young enough to get another decent deal afterwards if his performance justifies it. 

Offseason Notes and Thoughts 11/9/11

With baseball season being over, football only being played on weekends, and basketball still irrelevant, I've spent a lot of time poking around the internet trying to get a feel for the offseason. We've only seen a few things happen, as teams are testing the waters, and waiting for the big fish to land before the smaller ones fall into place. I mean, why would a team make a strong play for Michael Cuddyer while Carlos Beltran is still available. 

I want to start in Texas, where their hole at first base is glaring. It was shown all during the season, and during the playoffs. Michael Young was great at the plate in 2011, hitting .338/.380/474. But in the previous five season, he only hit .303/.352/.446. I think 2011 was an aberration, and Young, going into 2012 at age 35, will see a dip in production. Young's defense is also well below average at first base, as well as other positions. Mitch Moreland, the other option currently on their roster, was basically terrible after May this past year. Even batting ninth, the Rangers can't justify not upgrading the position. 

Texas is setup to win in the near future, and has a farm system is deep, which provides optimism that they contend for the next decade. The Rangers will probably be in on the two big first basemen this off season, but I don't think they'll commit to a monster contract that has a large chance of blowing up on them towards the end. If they can offer either Pujols or Fielder a five or so year deal, I think that they should do it. If both guys ask for and get offers of eight or so years, I would be hesitant to match that. In that case, I think that they would be fine with Carlos Pena. They could probably get Pena with a one year deal, and definitely get him with a two year deal. Pena is a left handed bat who could help balance out their lineup. He wouldn't be as expensive as the two big guys, and he's also a very good defender. When paired with Beltre, Andrus, and Kinsler, the Rangers would have the best defensive infield in baseball. The Rangers should go for a big first baseman, but Pena wouldn't be a bad alternative. With Michael young being right handed, he could spell Pena against tough lefties, while splitting time at DH and the other infield spots. I think Pena's bat would play well in Texas with the jet stream that blows out to right center. 

A Perfectly Sabean Trade

This afternoon the Kansas City Royals sent Melky Cabrera to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo. The Giants are in need of offense, and have a deep pitching staff. The Royals have a lot of hitting talent, and much of it in the outfield, but don't have a very deep rotation. This trade appears to make both teams better, but underneath the surface it's hard to decide who got the better end of the deal.

On the surface, it looks like the Royals are selling high on Melky Cabrera and buying low of Jonathan Sanchez. Melky is coming off of the best season of his career at age 26. He hit .305 and had a respectable .164 ISO, but those are really the only highlights. His walk rate was the lowest of his career, at 5%. That led to a pedestrian .339 on base percentage. He's also a below average defender in center, which could be a problem in the spacious Pac Bell Park. He doesn't really profile as a corner outfielder, and it look like the Giants will already have a log jam at the corner spots anyways. For the Royals, they sold on Cabrera at the perfect time. His value will never be higher, and they have a replacement in the form of Lorenzo Cain at Northwest Arkansas who appears to be ready to step into Cabrera's starting spot.

Like Cabrera, Jonathan Sanchez has also only had one good season. His career year, however occurred in 2010. Sanchez has been in the Giants rotation for four years now, and we all know his profile. He's got great stuff, but doesn't always know where it's going. When he can keep his stuff in or near the zone, he can be great, but evident by his career walk rate of 4.78 BB/9, he often struggles with his command. Sanchez had a down year in 2011, and it was mostly due to his walk rate, which was 5.85 BB/9. Kansas City is gambling that they can help Sanchez to harness his ability. It's not impossible for a pitcher to tweak his delivery, or figure something out and improve his command, but as Oliver Perez has shown us, it's not easy. 

What I'll be looking for in the new MLB CBA

With the NFL and NBA both having lockouts this year, and the NBA recently announcing that they will miss the first part of the season, it's gone somewhat under the radar that the MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on December 11th of this year. It's not as big a story as in the NFL simply because of the popularity of the NFL. It's not as big a story as the NBA because the NBA is in real trouble. It's still important in it's own right though, because it will change the landscape on which the 30 teams in the MLB operate. I'm not a an expert on all things CBA and don't know many details about the finer points of the agreement, but there are a few things that I will look for the new one is announced.

I really hope that the playoffs aren't expanded. I think that there are too many teams in as of now. St. Louis won the World Series from the wildcard spot, but they weren't the best team this year. They just got hot at the right time, and Ron Washington didn't want his team to win it. The more teams that you add to the playoffs, the less drama it will create for the stretch run in September. The more teams that make the playoffs, the earlier the best teams in the league will clinch and start resting their players. The races will then take place between more average teams instead of the better teams. The closer to the median of the league, the more likely it is that there will be in a tie. Tie breaker games are great at all, but in the proposed new system, there will be a one game playoff between the two wild card teams. In the new system, the second best team in the league can win a wild card spot, and play the fifth best team. Having a 162 game season decided by a one game playoff which could eliminate the second best team in the league sounds like a terrible idea. The media will also have a field day the first time either the Red Sox or Yankees win over 100 games, and then lose in a one game playoff to an 85 win Angels or Twins team. 

Gold Glove Awards for 2011

Here are my selection for the Gold Gloves for 2011. They're based on what I saw over the course of the season, with some input of the defensive metrics. Unlike the real Gold Glove awards, I do not take offense into consideration. I also skipped the pitcher's category, because I didn't have any way of evaluating them, and wouldn't have had any confidence in anyone that I chose. A new thing this year is separating the outfielders into left, center and right, instead of any three outfielders regardless of position.

The awards are announced tonight.  I don't expect my choices to match the ones that we will see tonight, because a lot of the managers who vote for these awards don't really base them on defense, but use the award as more of a popularity contest.  Here's what I came up with.

Game Seven

The Cardinals won gam seven to win the World Series over the Texas Rangers Friday night. The game was a little of a let down after the shenanigans of games five and six.  The game featured a crazy strike zone, which moved and expanded as the innings changed.

I was worried about Texas coming out of the gate flat in game seven after losing game six the way they did, but they came out ready to play. The first four Rangers hitters reached base in the top of the first inning. Only two came around to score, however, largely in part to Ian Kinsler being thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop. Chris Carpenter was up in the zone in the first inning, and his sinker was pretty flat. He managed to get through the inning only allowing two runs to score, but it could have been much worse. 

Matt Harrison started the bottom of the first by getting the first two batters he faced out. He then walked Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. With a full count and both runners on the move, David Freese doubled to center to score both runners. The first inning of game seven really represented the final few games of the series. Texas got men on, but couldn't get them around to score. St. Louis got men on base, and was more efficient in getting them around to score. 

Game Six: A Three Act Play

Oh, what a night. Game six was a thriller, in which there were five blown leads, and St. Louis came out on top. Looking back on the game, I almost see it as a three act play. The first act lasted the first six innings, where both teams had to overcome errors, managerial miscues, and missed opportunities. The second act starts in the top of the seventh, and lasts until the middle of the ninth. In this act, the Rangers take the lead, and start to close in on their first ever World Series Championship. In the third act, which starts in the bottom of the ninth, and lasts until the end of the game, the Cardinals rush back to tie the game, and the game turns into an offensive blitzkrieg until the David Freese home run ends the game. Let's break down this Shakespearian performance act by act. 

Act 1 - "Catching baseball is hard" 

In the first six innings of the game, there were five errors. Three committed by the Cardinals and one committed by the Rangers. In four of the first five innings, the Rangers got their leadoff man on either by an error or by a walk. The strike zone early on was small, Jaime Garcia was being squeezed, especially at the bottom of the zone, and this made it hard for him to be effective. The Rangers put a lot of men on base in the early innings, but struggled to get them around to score. Through the first five innings, the Rangers stranded eight base runners, and had two more erased via double plays. The Cardinals managed to score four runs during the first act, and were fortunate that they weren't losing by three or more runs. 

The Cubs New Front Office

In what was possibly the worst kept secret of the year so far, the Cubs announced Tuesday that Theo Epstein will take over as President of the club. Theo has been much heralded for what he put together in Boston over the past decade, and should bring his progressive front office style over to the National League. Progressive front offices like what Theo had in Boston, what Andrew Friedman has in Tampa, and what Billy Beane has in Oakland have been reshaping the game in the American League since the early 2000's, but the National League hasn't been as quick to adapt to these organizational philosophies.

Wednesday, the Cubs announced that Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod will join Epstein in the front office. Both Hoyer and McLeod come front he Padres organization, in what appear to be lateral moves. Jed Hoyer was the General Manager in San Diego, the same title he'll hold with the Cubs. McLeod was an assistant to the GM in San Diego, but will be head of scouting and player development with Chicago. Both Hoyer and McLeod were with Epstein in Boston, and will try to work magic with a lack-luster Cubs organization. The Cubs will send a player to be named later back to the Padres as compensation.

The outlook for the Cubs appears to be a lot brighter with their new front office. With the help of Hoyer and McLeod, Epstein took the Red Sox from a mediocre team with a well storied history of playoff heartbreaks, to a perennial playoff contender and two world championships. Moving from the American League East to the National League central, I expect that the new Cubs front office will have no trouble turning the ship around. The only question is; how long will it take. 

Three Nights in Arlington, Part 2

This is part two of a longer post, part one can be found here. 

Game Five, what a ride. Coming into the game, I was really worried for the Rangers. Chris Carpenter had been good, and C.J. Wilson hasn't been. If the Cardinals won game five, then Texas would have to beat them twice in St. Louis to win the series. Chris Carpenter pitched really well again, and C.J. Wilson really wasn't. Carpenter threw seven innings, allowed two runs, and made most of it look easy. Wilson only went 5.1 innings, and actually threw more pitches than Carpenter did, largely because of his inability to control his pitches. He walked five batters in his outing, and never got into a groove. He was constantly pitching out of the stretch, getting behind in counts, but got a few key double plays to limit the damage. The only inning that the Cardinals scored off of Wilson was the second. The inning could have been much worse, as Wilson walked the first two hitters that he faced, and had an error committed behind him. 

Both of the Rangers runs came on solo home runs by Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre. The Rangers never really threatened to have a big inning against Carpenter, but continually threatened to put up big innings against the Rangers. The over management of the offense by La Russa really hindered their ability to score though. Allen Craig got caught stealing twice in front of Albert Pujols, and sacrifice bunted once. In front of Pujols, you never want to give away outs, open up a base, or kill base runners with him up. Two days after he hit three home runs, trying to advance a baserunner from first to second is a risk that is totally misguided. If Albert hits a home run it doesn't matter where you are, you're scoring. If he hits a double, you still have a pretty good chance to score. The risk of an out while trying to advance a runner to second with a stolen base is not worth it. Giving away an out to advance a runner form first to second with a sacrifice bunt actually reduces your chance to win a game. 

Three Nights in Arlington, Part 1

After game three of the series, when St. Louis beat the Rangers by a score of 16-7, I didn't feel the need to write anything about it, because the game was pretty self-explanatorty. The Rangers kept throwing Albert Pujols good pitches to hit, and he continued to hit them 400+ feet. Game four was closer, with Texas winning 4-0, but I was still feeling a little lazy. I decided that after game five, I would write a longer article about the three games in Texas, but then the debacle that will go down in history as game five happened. Wow, I don't think I've ever seen anything like game five. It was the worst managed game I've ever seen. I'm going to write this, and split it up into two parts. Part one will cover games three and four, and part 2 will cover game five and all it's glory.

Game three was an exciting game, but Rangers fans won't tell you that thy enjoyed it. The Cardinals beat the Rangers by a score of 16-7. Matt Harrison started for the Rangers, and didn't have his good stuff. He left a lot of pitches in the top half of the zone, and paid for it. He only lasted 3.2 innings, and gave up five runs. After that, the Rangers bullpen kept bringing out different pitchers, but none of them could slow the Cardinals offense. Every pitcher for Texas gave up a run in game three, and every Cardinals starter had a hit, except John Jay. 

Allen Craig started the game with a bang. After knocking in runs while pinch hitting in the first two games, Craig hit a solo home run in the first inning of game three. Albert Pujols led the way though, as he had five hits in six at bats. Three of those hits were home runs, and they were all tape measure shots. He ended up five for six with four runs scored, and knocked in six.

World Series Game Two

In a total opposite showing from what was expected, the Rangers beat the Cardinals in game two by the score of 2-1. The starting pitchers dominated the game. Jaime Garcia threw seven innings is shutout ball, while striking out seven and only allowing four base runners. Garcia did a good job of getting ahead of the Rangers hitters, and then used his curveball to finish them off, generating a lot of weak contact an swings and misses. The fourth inning was the only inning where Garcia struggled, he walked the leadoff man, and gave up a single later in the inning. No runs scored, but Garcia was forced to go from the stretch, and threw 21 pitches in the frame.

Colby Lewis went 6.2 innings, and only gave up one run. He only struck out four hitters, but but come help from his defense. Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler made two great plays on balls hit up the middle. If either one of them would have went through, it could have proved to be a turning point, as there were men on base on both occasions. In game one of the series, both pitchers had good lines, but neither pitched particularly well. Both let base runners on, especially early in the game, but managed to get out of it. This game was different, as the hitters were rarely reaching base, and the early part of the game moved at a brick pace, and didn't have the same laboring feeling as game one.

World Series Game One

After two days without any baseball it's back. The World Series started with a great game in which the Cardinals defeated the Rangers 3-2. The game could have been much more high scoring, but both teams squandered scoring opportunities and gave away outs as the game was played. 

Ron Washington gave away two outs in this game with a runner on base and the middle of his lineup coming up. In the first inning, Ian Kinsler lead off with a single off the glove of David Freese. With Elvis Andrus up, Washington put on the hit and run. Andrus didn't make contact, and Yadier Molina threw out Kinsler at second base. I have no idea why Washington thought it was necessary to put this sign on. Playing for one run like that hurts your chances of winning in the first inning. With two teams with offenses like the Rangers and Cardinals have, playing for one run is the wrong move, unless it's the ninth inning, and the baserunner represents the winning run. Ian Kinsler led off the sixth inning, and again reached on a single. Washington then had Andrus bunt Kinsler to second. The game was tied at 2-2 at this point, but it's still not a situation where playing for one run helps your chances of winning the game. Kinsler was successfully moved into scoring position, but never made it home. 

The Cardinals are guilty of the same thing. In the bottom of the fifth, Rafael Furcal walked to start the inning. John Jay then sacrificed to move him over to second. This took the bat out of Albert Pujols hands, as he was intentionally walked. Matt Holliday then grounded into a double play to end the inning. When you have the middle of your order coming up, and your leadoff man is on first base, He's already in scoring position. Either Furcal of Kinsler have a good chance to score on a double, and the power in both of these lineups could easily hit one over the fence. In baseball, a team only gets 27 outs, there's no clock. Those 27 outs determine how long your teams gets to score. Giving them away is counterproductive to scoring, plain and simple. 

Preparing for the World Series

Over the weekend the Rangers and Cardinals bumped the Tigers and the Brewers from the playoffs to advance to the World Series. Both series took six games, but the winning teams were convincing in their victories.

The Cardinals pitching proved to be too much for the Brewers, as Milwaukee struggled to score off of the St. Louis bullpen. Milwaukee's defense also finally came back to bite them, as the committed nine errors in the series. David Freese stepped up in the series with a lot of big hits to propel with Cardinals past the Brewers.

Coming into the ALCS, Detroit was dinged up. Their roster was depleted, and their bullpen was lack luster sans Valverde and Benoit. The Rangers showed that they were a deeper, more complete team against the Tigers. Their starting pitching wasn't great, but their bullpen was phenomenal, and their offense came as advertised.

Looking at these two teams, the Rangers and the Cardinals, I think that the Rangers have the better overall team. Neither of these starting staffs are great, but I think that the Rangers starting pitching is deeper, while the Cardinals have the best pitcher in Chris Carpenter. The Rangers bullpen can shut a team down just as well as the Cardinals. The middle of the lineups are comparable, but Texas's lineup is much deeper. The Rangers are also a better defensive club than the Cardinals.

A Little League Championship Series Analysis

We're two games into the National League Championship Series and three games into the American League Championship Series. After a few games of these series, it's easier to see how the teams matchup, and see who's going to use their strengths, and who's weaknesses are showing.

In the American League series, Texas just looks like a much better team, with an easier path to win games against a Tigers team that just isn't healthy enough. The Tigers are currently down two games to one, but have lost Magglio Ordonez for the season. Delmon Young was also out of the lineup tonight, and Victor Martinez appeared to sustain an injury tonight. The Tigers offense isn't as deep as the Rangers, and should struggle to keep up with the Rangers offense. The Detroit bullpen is also thinner than the Rangers, and Jim Leyland only trusts Benoit and Valverde. Al Alburquerque is apparently not with the team anymore, or Leyland just chooses not to use him, even though he's probably their third best reliever.  The only thing that I believe that Detroit can match Texas with is their starting pitching. For Detroit to with this series, they need their starters to have good outings, then stretch out a few runs, and have their two relievers shut the door at the end. If Detroit falls behind in the middle innings (like in game one), or is tied (game two), they just appear to have no chance of scoring against the Texas bullpen. With Ogando in the bullpen now throwing 97, Ron Washington really doesn't have a bad option to go to. It's much like San Francisco last year. Neither Bruce Bochy for the Giants nor Ron Washington for the Rangers have a history of good bullpen management, but their general managers have built them such a great bullpen, they can't possibly make a bad choice, short of letting Mike Gonzalez face Miguel Cabrera and then Victor Martinez. The only concern in the bullpen is Koji Uehara. Uehara hasn't been great since coming over from Baltimore, and I wouldn't be surprised if Alexi Ogando takes over the seventh inning role now that Yoshinori Tateyama is on the roster and can pitch multiple innings in the middle of the game. 

National League Championship Series Preview

I guess all of this defense and run prevention isn't the way to make it to the playoffs after all. I guess you actually have to be able to hit, don't cha? I'm looking at the lineups for these teams, and the only above average defenders that I see on either roster are Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols, and Nyjer Morgan/Carlos Gomez. The rest are just bad. So we'll just start by saying that neither team has a defensive advantage.

The Brewers have home field advantage in this series, which we found out against Arizona, appears to be critical for them. The Cardinals appear to have the best pitcher in the series in Chris Carpenter, but the Brewers have the deeper staff with Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum. Both bullpens look deep enough and talented enough that they will be able to hold a lead, even if they need to pitch four or five innings.

One thing missing from the Milwaukee bullpen, however, is a lefty reliever. They have Chris Narveson, but I think that they want to save him for a long relief situation than use him as a lefty specialist. If this is the case, then I believe that the middle of the Cardinals order has the best chance to do damage late in games. The middle of the Cardinals order consists os Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday. Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and he doesn't care who pitches to him, he's got a career OPS over 1.000 against both right and left handers. While Matt Holliday isn't Albert Pujols, he's still a good hitter, and doesn't much mind facing righties of lefties. Lance Berkman is sandwiched in between Pujols and Holliday, and really likes facing righties. With the hyper managing that goes on these days though, I wouldn't think that Ron Roenicke will let Narveson pitch to either Pujols or Holliday, meaning that he would only face Berkman if he came in. Using the only pitcher in your bullpen accustomed to pitching more than one inning for a single batter isn't the wisest thing, but it might happen. 

American League Championship Series Game One

Game one of the ALCS was a very quirky game. I DVRed it so that I could watch the disaster that was the Buckeyes game. Then I had a few drinks, watched the Rangers vs Tigers game and wrote this. Much like game one of the ALDS between Detroit and New York, the weather played a huge role in the game. Also like game one of that series, both pitchers weren't sharp when they came out. 

C.J. Wilson came out for the top of the first without his command or very much on his pitches. He walked one, and allowed three base runners total in the innings. Wilson was using all of his pitches, but couldn't seem to find a handle on any of them. He threw 20 pitches in the inning, but only 11 for strikes. He looked to be doing his best "Eddie Cicotte 1919 World Series" impersonation, by working the count to two strikes, and then laying a cookie in there for them. He did get a ground ball double play to get out of the inning without any runs scoring though. Verlander, too, was off with his command. He walked two in the first inning, but also struck out two and got a caught stealing on a botched hit and run to get out of the inning. 

In the second inning Wilson let on two more base runners and continued to not look sharp. He didn't let anyone score again though to hold the score at 0-0 heading into the bottom of the second. In Verlander's half of the inning he actually appeared to be human. He wasn't spotting his fastball or curveball on the low glove side corner to hitters, and perpetually fell behind in the count. The Rangers got three hits in this inning, including a David Murphy triple, which led to two runs scoring. I noticed thatVerlander's changeup was sitting at 89mph during this inning. During the regular season, hit changeup was usually around 87mph. For this reason, I think, the Rangers were able to get some good swings on it. They weren't hitting it hard, but they were fouling it off to extend at bats. Through two innings, neither pitcher looked sharp, and they had both already walked two batters. 

American League Championship Series Preview

At first glance, it looks like Detroit would be at a big disadvantage. Texas has a deeper rotation, a better lineup, and a better bullpen. While Texas has the better overall lineup, Detroit's lineup will be almost totally right handed against the left handed starters of Texas. Delmon Young won't be playing in this series after suffering an oblique injury doing game five of the Division Series. Young was the Tiger's best hitter in the Division series, and hits lefties much better than he hits righties. With Young out, the Tiger's outfield defense will be better, which could have a big impact against a team like Texas which hits a lot of fly balls. 

The most important player for Texas is Josh Hamilton in this series. The Tigers are going to use nothing but right handed starters. The games should all be played during prime time hours since there's only one other series going on. Things are lining up for Hamilton to have a big series. The Tigers only lefties are Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke. Both can keep lefties in check, but they also can lose the strike zone and walk Hamilton as often as they get him out. Neither lefty has a 2:1 K/BB rate, and I wouldn't call either one of them a good lefty specialist. The rest of the Texas starting position players, with the exception of Mitch Moreland are right handed. In the early innings against right handed pitching, Hamilton could single handedly win game for his team with a few big hits. 

I could see Justin Verlander having a let down game in game one of the series. Verlander threw a lot of pitches in his last start. He also has been a little homer phone over the season, giving up 24 of them in 2011. Starting in Arlington against that lineup, I could see the Rangers getting four or five runs off of him. Whether his second start is in game four or game five, it'll be at home, so I would worry less about him there. 

National League Division Series: Game Fives

Arizona at Milwaukee

This game started out with both pitchers putting up zeros. Through the first three innings, there were only five total base runners. The only run was scored when Justin Upton hit a solo home run in the top of the third with a full count and two outs. Yovani Gallardo came out and put up another zero in the top of the fourth, but was working considerably harder to get outs than Ian Kennedy was. Gallardo was bouncing a lot of curveballs, getting deep into a lot of counts, and had a pitch count of 79 after his fourth inning of work. Kennedy, meanwhile, was throwing a lot of fastballs, and pounding the zone. In the fourth inning, he allowed three baseruners, and one run, but still ended the inning only haven thrown 51 pitches. Gallardo ended up going six innings, only giving up the one run. In the top of the sixth though, Gallardo should have gotten out of the inning having thrown 100 pitches, but Nyjer Morgan misplayed a ball. Gallardo was forced to throw 12 more pitches to get out of the inning, and those extra 12 pitches effectively ended his night. Kennedy also ended up going six innings, but allowed a second run in the bottom of the sixth when Braun led off the inning with a double and eventually came around to score. Kennedy was still throwing well, but was pulled after six innings with only 85 pitches.

In the seventh inning both teams went to their bullpens. Takashi Saito was the first pitcher out of the Brewers bullpen. He faced the bottom of the Diamondbacks order, and got them in order. Bryan Shaw came out of the Diamondbacks bullpen, and struck out the side in order in only 13 pitches. In the eighth inning, Francisco Rodriguez came in to hold the lead, but almost gave it away. He struggled with his command, and allowed two walks and a single. He got out of the inning though by way of two strikeouts and a groundout. Arizona was using their bullpen as if they were also winning the game, and David Hernandez was brought in for the eight. Hernandez pitched two perfect innings for the Diamondbacks and looked very good in doing so.

Tigers vs Yankees: Game 5 Long-Drawn Recap

The Tigers got after it early, with Don Kelly and Delmon Young both hitting solo home runs in the top of the first inning. After Don Kelly and Delmon Young hit home runs on back to back pitches, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez both made quick outs by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. Cabrera and Martinez are professional hitters, and I would have liked to see them be more patient and try to built Nova's pitch count, by seeing more than four total pitches. The Tigers tried to add on to their lead when Magglio Ordonez hit a leadoff double, and then advanced to third on a groundout to second by Alex Avila. He was stranded there after Jhonny Peralta grounded out to third and Ramon Santiago struck out. Both of Avila and Peralta's grounders were hit hard and could have easily been hits. Doug Fister on the other hand came out very strong. Through the first two innings, he only threw 26 pitches while striking out three, getting three ground ball outs, not walking any, and only allowing one hit.

Phil Hughes came in for the Yankees in the top of the third. Hughes came in throwing very well, sitting in the low nineties, and working mostly low in the zone. He struck out the first two he faced, although they were Austin Jackson and Don Kelly. Delmon young then hit a hard single off the right field wall, but Hughes then got Cabrera to gourd weakly to shortstop. Phil Hughes came in to start the top of the fourth, but was pulled after giving up a single to Magglio Ordonez. Boone Logan relieved Hughes and got out of the inning.

Fister got into a little trouble in the bottom of the third giving up a single to Brett Gardner and a walk to Curtis Granderson, but got Robinson Cano to fly out to Austin Jackson to get out of it. Fister started the fourth by allowing three of the first four to reach base, and load the bases. He got out of it though by getting two infield pop ups. Fister started out the fifth by getting two quick outs, but then Robinson Cano hit a solo home run to make the score 3-1 before Alex Rodriguez grounded out to end the inning.

Division Series Game Five Previews

Tigers at Yankees The game one part two rematch between Ivan Nova and Doug Fister. Fister didn't pitch as bad as his game one line shows. He still got ground balls, and struck out six in 4.2 innings. I think that if Fister comes out and pitches like that again, he will win. I don't trust Ivan Nova the second time around this Tigers lineup. If Fister keep the ball in the park, and continues to not walk anyone, he'll win the game. I think to win the game, the Yankees are going to have to show their power and hit a few home runs. The Tigers aren't built on the long ball as much as the Yankees, and with Nova's strikeout rate of under 6 K/9, I think the Tigers will be able to string some hits together and score runs early, and run Nova from the game. If I'm Jim Leyland, I would get Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta in the top third of the lineup, and make sure Justin Verlander is ready for the eight and ninth inning. I know Leyland said Verlander won't be available, but Jose Valverde has been terrible. I would have Joaquin Benoit pitch the seventh inning, and then let Verlander get the last six outs for me. I wouldn't use Valverde in Yankee stadium with how poorly he's pitched against the Yankees, because with his comments about the series not coming back to New York, the fans are going to be all over him as soon as he starts to falter.

Diamondbacks at Brewers It's difficult to find a reason to pick the Diamondbacks in this game. The home team has won each game in the series so far. Each team has a good starter for this game, with Ian Kennedy going up against Yovani Gallardo. I could see either of these starters taking over the game and singlehandedly winning the game for their team. Barring that though, I believe that the Brewers have the advantage on offense, and in the bullpen. My original prediction was that the Brewers would win this series in five games, and I going to stick with that.

Cardinals at Phillies This game has a another great pitching matchup with both teams aces on the mound. I view this game as the St. Louis 25 man roster against Roy Halladay. I think that the Cardinals have the better offense in the series, and the better bullpen. In a single game, Chris Carpenter can be just as good as Roy Halladay. Carpenter didn't pitch very well in his first start in the playoffs, but that was on short rest, and he'll be on full rest tomorrow. He has virtually no platoon split over the season either, and if he can hold serve against Roy Halladay, I think the Cardinals would have a great chance to win. I also have more faith in the St. Louis bullpen that the Philly bullpen because most of the Phillies hitters have platoon split issues, and La Russa has used his bullpen to expose them in this series by playing match ups anytime after the fifth inning. The only way I see Philadelphia winning, is if Halladay gives them eight innings and leaves with the lead to give Ryan Madson the save chance. If St. Louis gets to him early, I think that they can end the game early. Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley have been the total Philadelphia offense this series. If Carpenter can keep those two in check, he should be able to work through the rest of the order without much resistance. I picked Philadelphia in five games before the series started, and I'm not going to change when they have Roy Halladay on the mound for a series ending game, but I do see a way that St. Louis can win it.

National League Division Series Game Fours

The Wednesday games of the NLDS weren't the best games we've seen so far, but they served to get up two game fives on Friday that should be very good match ups, with each team playing to extend their season.

The Philadelphia St. Louis game was a quick one. Philadelphia game out of the gate quick, scoring two runs in the top of the first thanks to some subpar defense. John Jay lost a ball in the sun, and Lance Berkman misplayed a ball in the corner. The inning turned though when the Phillies made an out on the base paths that I think was ill advised. With Hunter Pence on first, and Ryan Howard up, Pence broke for second on the full count pitch. Edwin Jackson who is a strikeout pitcher was on the mound, with Ryan Howard who is a strikeout machine at the plate, and Yadier Molina who is the best in the league at throwing out opposing base runners. The result of the play was a strike em out throw em out double play. In the bottom of the inning though, the Cardinals benefited from the sun, when Shane Victorino got a late jump on a ball, and then made an error on a Lance Berkman RBI double. The second and third inning took a total of about eight minutes, but then the Cardinals took the lead in the bottom of the fourth. Berman and Holliday reached on a walk and a hit by pitch and then were drove in by David Freese. The pitchers then took control again until Freese hit a two run homerun in the sixth. Both pitchers were efficient, going six innings each and throwing a combined 159 pitches. Tony La Russa went to his bullpen in the seventh and played the matchups with Author Rhodes and Octavio Dotel that inning. Fernando Salas came in for the eight inning, and got into trouble, but Mark Rzepczynski came in to get Ryan Howard and end the inning. Jason Motte closed the game out in the ninth to lock up the win for the Red Birds. The game lasted under three hours, the managerial moves were quick, and they worked, to keep the game moving. David Freese was the hero for a Cardinals team that played like they wanted this game more than the Phillies. Game five should be a good one this Friday between Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay in Philadelphia. Oh yeah, Brad Lidge came in the face Albert Pujols. Albert hit the ball hard, but this didn't happen.

The Milwaukee vs Arizona game on the other hand was very long and drawn out with plenty of scoring. Both starters, Joe Saunders and Randy Wolf left after three innings. Wolf wasn't sharp, and fell behind a lot of batters, while Saunders was leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone. Both got hit hard, and gave up a combined ten earned runs. The Diamondbacks hit their second grand slam in as many games. After hitting one last night, Paul Goldschmidt had a chance to hit another tonight, but struck out, and the batter behind him, Ryan Roberts hit it instead. Jarrod Parker pitched a third of an inning. His fastball was moving, but it looked like home plate was moving on him too. He struggled with his control, throwing only four of his eleven pitches for strikes, allowing one walk and two hits before being pulled. The overall feeling that I got from the game was that both teams wanted to win this game, but the grand slam in the first inning by Arizona put the game out of reach. Milwaukee tried to get back into it, but couldn't mount a big inning to truly get them back into the contest. Arizona held a two to six run lead throughout the game, and won it easily. With the home teams winning each game of the series, along with the reputations that these teams have built throughout the year, I would have to think that the Brewers will end up winning the series on Friday, but in one game anything can happen.

My Award Ballots for the American League

If I had a vote for these awards, this is what my ballot would look like. They're based on the regular season statistics, but I couldn't care less about RBIs or Wins. I don't believe that you have to be on a winning team to win the MVP, because we have an award for team performance, it's called the playoffs. I think that a pitcher should be able to win the MVP, but as you can see, I don't think that this is the year. I'm also going to give my preseason pick for the award, what my end of the season ballot would look like, and then give a little explanation and justification for my picks.

Most Valuable Player 

Preseason Pick: Miguel Cabrera 

End of Season Ballot:

1. Jose Bautista 
2. Jacoby Ellsbury 
3. Justin Verlander
4. Curtis Granderson 
5. Miguel Cabrera 
6. Ian Kinsler 
7. CC Sabathia 
8. Dustin Pedroia 
9. Evan Longoria 
10. Adrian Gonzalez 

For me I view the American League MVP race as a two horse race. Jacoby Ellsbury might be the most complete player, but when you lead the league in slugging, and are 1 point off the lead in on base percentage, you have a good chance of getting my vote. Bautista isn't the prototypical slugger though in that he isn't a liability in the field, and isn't relegated to going station to station on the base paths. Ellsbury is a fine pick, but he's giving up about 75 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG, and I don't think that his defense makes up for that.


Cy Young 

Preseason Pick: Justin Verlander 

End of Season Ballot: 

1. Justin Verlander 
2. CC Sabathia 
3. C.J. Wilson 
4. Dan Haren 
5. Felix Hernandez 
6. Jered Weaver 

I've been a Verlander fan for a few years. This award might actually be unanimous, but if you look into the stats, Sabathia has been almost as good as Verlander this season. He doesn't have the wins, but Sabathia's xFIP is lower than Verlander's, and their BABIPs are .236 for Verlander and .318 for Sabathia. Sabathia also generated more ground balls, but Verlander can live with more fly balls in his park. This is also a two horse race, even though on the surface it looks like Verlander in a landslide.


Rookie of the Year 

Preseason Pick: Jeremy Hellickson 

End of Season Ballot: 

1. Eric Hosmer 
2. Dustin Ackley 
3. Michael Pineda 
4. Mark Trumbo 
5. Ivan Nova 

The American League Rookie of the Year had a very deep class this year. Pineda started the season very strong, but seemed to hit a wall in the second half. Mark Trumbo hit 29 home runs, but it's hard to justify a .290 OBP at first base. Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson were my choices for fifth on the ballot, but I chose Nova, because Hellickson's peripheral numbers show that he got very lucky. Ivan Nova had a good second half, and overall a better season. For the top two spots I have Hosmer and Ackley. Any advantage that Ackley had in OBP was given away to Hosmer in SLG, and whilee Ackley plays a more difficult position, Hosmer played in 38 more games, and gets my vote.


Manager of the Year 

Joe Madden 

This isn't very difficult. Madden isn't afraid to be unconventional, and gets the most out of his roster. He does't hurt his team by sacrifice bunting in the early innings. He uses his bullpen very effectively, and doesn't seem to really care about the save statistic. He does his best to put his players in a position to succeed.