I watched James Shield pitch tonight against the Rangers, and he looked good. He wasn't sharp in the first inning, but got out of it without allowing a run, and was lights out after that pitching eight innings with seven strikeouts while only allowing four hits and one walk. Shields is the oldest pitcher in the Rays rotation at the ripe old age of 29, and could be pitching his last inning for the Rays this September.
The Rays have one of the best problems that you can have in baseball, they have too much pitching. More specifically, starting pitching. They're major league rotation is full, with no weak links. David Price and James Shields are top of the rotation arms, while Jeremy Hellickson is merely average right now, but profiles as a number two starter in the near future. Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis make up the back end of the rotation, but could both be mid-rotation starters on most other staffs.
The Rays also have a prospect in Class-AAA named Matt Moore, and he is the best pitching prospect on the minor leagues. If you haven't seen Matt Moore, he pitched in the Futures Game in Arizona this summer, and stole the show. He's a lefty, and throws in the mid to high 90's and has a slider in the high eighties that will help him rack up the strikeouts. Moore will be ready to join the big league rotation next year, and the Rays will need to make room for him. Much like what they did prior to this season by trading Matt Garza to the Cubs to make room for Jeremy Hellickson, I expect them to trade one of their current starters to make room for Moore.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Behind The Numbers: Johnny Cueto
This year looks to be a major turning point for Johnny Cueto. In spring training, it wasn't clear if Cueto would even be able to pitch this year due to an arm injury. Thankfully for Cueto and the Reds, the injury wasn't as serious as originally thought, and Cueto was cleared to pitch in early May.
He hit the ground running, and has made 20 starts since with a 9-5 record, a 2.03 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He's exceeded all expectations that the Reds could have had before the season. He looks to be emerging as the ace of the Reds staff, and he's managing to do it with a major drop in his strikeout rate.
A pitcher can control three primary aspects that will dictate his success. He can control his strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball rate. Once the ball is put into play, it is up to the defense behind him to convert it into an out. A pitcher that does one of those things can survive in the majors. Josh Tomlin is a good example of this, he doesn't strikeout anyone, and doesn't get a lot of ground balls, but he walks only one batter per nine innings. A pitcher who does two of these things can be a top of the rotation starter, like Dan Haren. He has a good strikeout rate, good walk rate, but gives up a lot of fly balls. His ballpark and outfield defense help him a lot, and make him look a little better than he is, but he's still not an ace. When you have someone who excels at all three of these things, like Felix Hernandez, you get the makeup of a true ace pitcher. Of course, luck always plays a part, and when you get luck mixed with these three skills, then you get a season like Justin Verlander is having this year.
I Don't Want to Pour in on the Giants, but...
They really look terrible on the diamond. One year ago today, they were five games out of first place. At the beginning of tonight, they were five games out of first place. The difference is that last year, they were playing well, and chasing a Padres team that collapsed in September. This year they're struggling, and chasing a Diamondbacks team that is playing well, and seems to be confident that they can take this division.
The major problem with the Giants team is their offense. And it's easy to blame the Buster Posey injury as the main reason, but it's not the only reason. One thing that goes largely unnoticed is the Freddy Sanchez injury. Sanchez was a good acquisition for them since 2009. Not only was he a good on base guy at the top of the order, but he is a good defensive second baseman. Last year in fact, the Giants defense was the best in league in terms of runs saved with 64.7, according to Fangraphs. So far this year, the Giants defense has saved 14.3 runs. They aren't playing that well lately though, because they've been sacrificing defense to try to get any offensive boost that they can.
While watching them, they don't show any urgency when on the bases. They're only starter with speed is Andres Torres, and beside him, they have a bunch of average to below average runners. I still don't see them start their runners very often. When a team is struggling as much as they are to score, they need to press the issue. They seem to content on going station to station because they know that they can't take extra bases.
The onus isn't only on the players and manager, however. The General Manager Brian Sabean hasn't done much to help the team in the past year. For years the Giants have been bringing on older declining veterans, most of which who are league average or worse. Last season, it actually worked, and they won it all. Sabean decided to resign most of these players, one of which was Aubrey Huff, to a two year contract. Huff was good in 2010, but everyone knew it wasn't repeatable. By signing Huff, Sabean blocked the path for Brandon Belt, who is has been up and down between the major league team and AAA Frenso. Belt is now back with the big club, but is forced to play the outfield, instead of first base, his natural position. The team also retained the services of Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, and Mike Fontenot for 2011.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Looking into Mark Teixeira
For Mark Teixeira's first seven years in the Major Leagues, he was a .290 hitter. In the past two years, however, Teixeira has a batting average of .252. Now, I'm not a big proponent of batting average by itself, but his batting average is weighing down his on base percentage and slugging percentage, which I do put a lot of stock into. Teixeira isn't old, he's only 31, but I do think that he is starting the decline of his career. Since the removal of performance enhancing drugs and greenies, we don't see players peaking in their mid-thirties anymore.
Teixeira is showing some tell-tale signs of a player who is developing serious "old player skills". His batting average is dropping, but he's still taking his share of walks and hitting for power. He's never had much speed, and although he played other positions earlier in his career, he's a first baseman only at this point. Not taking anything away from him, because he's a good defensive first baseman, but it's not like he's a center fielder who could move to a corner, or a shortstop who could move to third base.
Teixeira is showing some tell-tale signs of a player who is developing serious "old player skills". His batting average is dropping, but he's still taking his share of walks and hitting for power. He's never had much speed, and although he played other positions earlier in his career, he's a first baseman only at this point. Not taking anything away from him, because he's a good defensive first baseman, but it's not like he's a center fielder who could move to a corner, or a shortstop who could move to third base.
Post Season Awards
With the lack of penant races this year, a lot of people have started to focus their energy on discussing post season awards. I think that this is mostly crazy because there's still over a month left in the season. Most of the major awards, MVP's, Cy Young's, and Rookie of the Year's, are too close to call at this point. The most unanimous award at this point is probably Justin Verlander for AL Cy Young, but with Jered Weaver pitching as well as he is, that's no lock.
Before the year, I filled out a spreadsheet with all of my picks for divisions, awards, and World Series among other things. In this post I'm going to tell my predictions for MVP, Cy, and ROY, why I chose them, and how they're holding up. These predictions were for who I thought would win it, not why I thought would deserve it.
National League:
MVP - Troy Tulowitzki
This choice was based on my prediction that the Rockies would win the NL West. They still could, and if they do surge back to take it, I can only assume Tulo would have to put up a monster September like he did last year.
The major players for the NL MVP this year are Justin Upton, the two Milwaukee sluggers, Brian McCann, and I guess Ryan Howard (because the best team in the league has to have at least one candidate), even though I think Shane Victorino has been the best player on that team this year. My Tulo prediction doesn't look too good, oh well. Any one of these players is deserving, and I don't think this race will be settled until the last week of the season.
Before the year, I filled out a spreadsheet with all of my picks for divisions, awards, and World Series among other things. In this post I'm going to tell my predictions for MVP, Cy, and ROY, why I chose them, and how they're holding up. These predictions were for who I thought would win it, not why I thought would deserve it.
National League:
MVP - Troy Tulowitzki
This choice was based on my prediction that the Rockies would win the NL West. They still could, and if they do surge back to take it, I can only assume Tulo would have to put up a monster September like he did last year.
The major players for the NL MVP this year are Justin Upton, the two Milwaukee sluggers, Brian McCann, and I guess Ryan Howard (because the best team in the league has to have at least one candidate), even though I think Shane Victorino has been the best player on that team this year. My Tulo prediction doesn't look too good, oh well. Any one of these players is deserving, and I don't think this race will be settled until the last week of the season.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Thome on His way Back to Cleveland?
The Twins recently put Jim Thome and Jason Kubel on waivers. Thome has been claimed by the Tribe, while Kubel was claimed by the White Sox. Both players would make sense on their new teams, but Thome has a no-trade clause.
Thome would be a great fit for the Indians, and I think he would wave his no trade clause to join the Indians, because he likes the organization, would have a chance to make the playoffs, and would continue to get regular playing time. He'd step into the role Travis Hafner left when he injured his foot. Thome still gets on base, and hits for power. He'd be a stabilizer in the middle of the Indians order, which has been in flux all season. He is actually hitting lefties better then righties this year, so there wouldn't be any worries of the Indians order becoming too left handed.
If Kubel went to the White Sox, he'd most likely get regular at bats while Carlos Quentin is out, and be the left handed batter that Chicago thought that they were getting when they signed Adam Dunn. Kubel will be a Type-B free agent at the end of the season, so Chicago would have to give Minnesota something to make the deal that would be worth the equivalent of the draft pick they would receive next summer.
The Twins have until noon central time tomorrow [Friday], to make deals with Cleveland and Chicago for Thome and Kubel.
Around the League:
Earlier today, Doug Fister threw seven shutout innings for the Tigers against the Rays. He's been a very good pickup so far for the Tigers, and at this point looks like he'd be their number three starter in a playoff series behind Verlander and Scherzer. I was worried about him leaving Seattle. He's a fly ball, pitch to contact type of pitcher. Leaving Seattle took him out of the league's most pitcher friendly park, and also took an above average defense away, and put a very below average defense behind him. He's only walked two batters in four starts with the Tigers, and really being a solid player in the middle of a group who, besides Verlander, has been very inconsistent.
Thome would be a great fit for the Indians, and I think he would wave his no trade clause to join the Indians, because he likes the organization, would have a chance to make the playoffs, and would continue to get regular playing time. He'd step into the role Travis Hafner left when he injured his foot. Thome still gets on base, and hits for power. He'd be a stabilizer in the middle of the Indians order, which has been in flux all season. He is actually hitting lefties better then righties this year, so there wouldn't be any worries of the Indians order becoming too left handed.
If Kubel went to the White Sox, he'd most likely get regular at bats while Carlos Quentin is out, and be the left handed batter that Chicago thought that they were getting when they signed Adam Dunn. Kubel will be a Type-B free agent at the end of the season, so Chicago would have to give Minnesota something to make the deal that would be worth the equivalent of the draft pick they would receive next summer.
The Twins have until noon central time tomorrow [Friday], to make deals with Cleveland and Chicago for Thome and Kubel.
Around the League:
Earlier today, Doug Fister threw seven shutout innings for the Tigers against the Rays. He's been a very good pickup so far for the Tigers, and at this point looks like he'd be their number three starter in a playoff series behind Verlander and Scherzer. I was worried about him leaving Seattle. He's a fly ball, pitch to contact type of pitcher. Leaving Seattle took him out of the league's most pitcher friendly park, and also took an above average defense away, and put a very below average defense behind him. He's only walked two batters in four starts with the Tigers, and really being a solid player in the middle of a group who, besides Verlander, has been very inconsistent.
The Night That Was 8/25/11
So I didn't have anything specific that I wanted to write about today, but there's a lot of small things going on around the league.
The Indians lost the night cap of Tuesday's double header, and Wednesday's matinee game. The series wasn't one that will be remembered around Cleveland. The Indians offense had a few good moments, but wasn't impressive, and the pitching staff underperformed, giving up runs at an embarrassing rate to the league's worst offense.
With the Mariner's offensive outburst in Cleveland this week, they've now scored more runs that the Giants have this season. The Giants actually have the worst run differential in their division, but their bullpen is good enough that they manage to win most of their close games, but with Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo on the disabled list, I'm not sure if that can continue.
The Blue Jays traded John McDonald and Aaron Hill to the Diamondbacks for Kelly Johnson. This trade appears to make sense for both teams. I think that the Blue Jays got the best player in the deal, but Arizona got what they needed to help them compete now. For the Diamondbacks, Aaron Hill will replace Johnson as the team's everyday second baseman, while John McDonald will help with the void at shortstop left by Stephen Drew. The Blue Jays added Kelly Johnson, who seems to fit the profile that the Blue Jays have been collecting recently; above average power, decent speed, and good on base skills. It will be interesting to see if the they retain him next year, and if so, it seems like Edwin Encarnacion could be the odd man out.
The Diamondbacks now have the same infield as he Blue Jays did in 2007. Seriously, they do; http://sbn.to/rjsN7g
The Indians lost the night cap of Tuesday's double header, and Wednesday's matinee game. The series wasn't one that will be remembered around Cleveland. The Indians offense had a few good moments, but wasn't impressive, and the pitching staff underperformed, giving up runs at an embarrassing rate to the league's worst offense.
With the Mariner's offensive outburst in Cleveland this week, they've now scored more runs that the Giants have this season. The Giants actually have the worst run differential in their division, but their bullpen is good enough that they manage to win most of their close games, but with Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo on the disabled list, I'm not sure if that can continue.
The Blue Jays traded John McDonald and Aaron Hill to the Diamondbacks for Kelly Johnson. This trade appears to make sense for both teams. I think that the Blue Jays got the best player in the deal, but Arizona got what they needed to help them compete now. For the Diamondbacks, Aaron Hill will replace Johnson as the team's everyday second baseman, while John McDonald will help with the void at shortstop left by Stephen Drew. The Blue Jays added Kelly Johnson, who seems to fit the profile that the Blue Jays have been collecting recently; above average power, decent speed, and good on base skills. It will be interesting to see if the they retain him next year, and if so, it seems like Edwin Encarnacion could be the odd man out.
The Diamondbacks now have the same infield as he Blue Jays did in 2007. Seriously, they do; http://sbn.to/rjsN7g
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Doubleheader Game One Recap 8/23/11
The Indians took game one of today's doubleheader this afternoon, by a score of 7-5. Justin Masterson, Kosuke Fukudome, and Shin-Soo Choo were the key players for the Tribe in today's game. Masterson had a good, but strange outing. He went 8.1 innings, giving up five runs via ten hits and one walk. He also struck out seven. The line sounds normal, but if you watched you'd know what I mean.
Through the first eight innings that Masterson threw, he had five innings where he only faced three batters. He gave up three runs across two innings, the second and the fifth. In both innings, he got the first two batters without much resistance, but then gave up three straight hits in each inning, leading to the Mariners' three runs. I don't know if Masterson lost focus, or if it was just bad luck, but it kept the Mariners in the game, and kept Masterson on the mound, making him throw more pitches.
He started the ninth inning by getting the first man out, but then let the next two men on, forcing Manny Acta to go to the bullpen. I understand the logic of letting Masterson start the ninth inning, he's the staff ace, and it would really save the bullpen if he went the distance, but he started the inning with 110 pitches, and this is a game that the Indians needed to win. If we're going to have closers and live by the save statistic, then Chris Perez has to start off that inning.
Through the first eight innings that Masterson threw, he had five innings where he only faced three batters. He gave up three runs across two innings, the second and the fifth. In both innings, he got the first two batters without much resistance, but then gave up three straight hits in each inning, leading to the Mariners' three runs. I don't know if Masterson lost focus, or if it was just bad luck, but it kept the Mariners in the game, and kept Masterson on the mound, making him throw more pitches.
He started the ninth inning by getting the first man out, but then let the next two men on, forcing Manny Acta to go to the bullpen. I understand the logic of letting Masterson start the ninth inning, he's the staff ace, and it would really save the bullpen if he went the distance, but he started the inning with 110 pitches, and this is a game that the Indians needed to win. If we're going to have closers and live by the save statistic, then Chris Perez has to start off that inning.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Another Tough Loss for the Tribe
Tonight, the Indians lost a tough game to the Mariners. Fausto Carmona threw six good innings, only allowing one run on six hits and one walk while striking out six. Jason Vargas was good as well, going seven innings while allowing two unearned runs. He struck out only two, but didn't walk any, and gave up seven hits.
The Indians scored both their runs in the second inning with help from two Brendan Ryan errors. Just watching the game, it seemed as if the Indians had a few opportunities to score, but would hit into a double play whenever they would get anything started. This was best epitomized in the seventh inning. The situation was was one out with Ezequiel Carrera on first base with Michael Brantley batting. On the pitch, Carrera was running as Brantley hit a ground ball to the first baseman. The ball was fielded, and the first baseman, Mike Carp, stepped on first for an out, but Carrera rounded second and went to third. Carp then threw across the diamond to third, and Carrera was tagged out on a play that wasn't close. All-in-all, the Indians grounded into three double plays in a very frustrating game.
The game stayed tied from the second inning until the start of the ninth. Chris Perez went in to start the ninth, and hit the first two batters. Obviously not a good way to start an inning, but then on a sacrifice bunt, Perez had trouble fielding the ball, resulting in a bass loaded situation with no one out. He then struck out Ichiro, but gave up a sac fly to the center fielder Ezequiel Carrera. Carrera did his best to get a throw home, but it was just late, and Miguel Olivo came into score the game winning run.
The Indians haven't been playing well lately. The starting pitching has been inconsistant, the offense has been slumping, and the bullpen has been worked hard. Not a formula for winning, and the Indians have dropped four straight.
The Indians scored both their runs in the second inning with help from two Brendan Ryan errors. Just watching the game, it seemed as if the Indians had a few opportunities to score, but would hit into a double play whenever they would get anything started. This was best epitomized in the seventh inning. The situation was was one out with Ezequiel Carrera on first base with Michael Brantley batting. On the pitch, Carrera was running as Brantley hit a ground ball to the first baseman. The ball was fielded, and the first baseman, Mike Carp, stepped on first for an out, but Carrera rounded second and went to third. Carp then threw across the diamond to third, and Carrera was tagged out on a play that wasn't close. All-in-all, the Indians grounded into three double plays in a very frustrating game.
The game stayed tied from the second inning until the start of the ninth. Chris Perez went in to start the ninth, and hit the first two batters. Obviously not a good way to start an inning, but then on a sacrifice bunt, Perez had trouble fielding the ball, resulting in a bass loaded situation with no one out. He then struck out Ichiro, but gave up a sac fly to the center fielder Ezequiel Carrera. Carrera did his best to get a throw home, but it was just late, and Miguel Olivo came into score the game winning run.
The Indians haven't been playing well lately. The starting pitching has been inconsistant, the offense has been slumping, and the bullpen has been worked hard. Not a formula for winning, and the Indians have dropped four straight.
Weekend Recap 8/22
The Indians lost on Saturday and Sunday to the Tigers. David Huff and Ubaldo Jimenez both got hit hard. Rick Porcello got hit hard on Sunday also, but Doug Fister was great for the Tigers on Saturday.
Saturday's game was over ealry, David Huff went only 2.1 innings, and gave up five runs. He was struggling with his control, giving up four walks during those innings. He didn't strikeout anyone, and just seemed like he couldn't get into a groove. Doug Fister on the other hand had his best outing since joining the Tigers. He went seven innings, and struck out seven. He's only had more strikeouts one time this season, and that was against the Mariners. The only run that he gave came on a solo homerun to Shin-Soo Choo in the third inning.
Sunday's game was closer, but wasn't pretty on either end. Neither starter made it through four innings, Jimenez giving up eight runs in 3.1 innings, and Porcello giving up five runs in 3.2 innings. The Indians bullpen came in and shut down the Tigers for the rest of the game, while the Tigers bullpen gave up 11 base runners and almost gave the lead back. It was frustrating to watch the Indians continue to get runners on, but not score them.
Friday, August 19, 2011
The Indians Tigers Game 8/19
Tonight's game was on MLB Network in my new area, so I actually got to watch it. The Tigers won tonights game by a score of four to one. The game was close until late when the Tigers have three homeruns in two innings, and then turned to their bullpen to close the door.
Josh Tomlin cruised through the five innings, not allowing any runs, and not really ever allowing the Tigers to get anything started. He had good movement on his pitches and had his usual pin point control. But he wasn't striking anybody out, and was getting most of his outs on flyballs. Then in the bottom of the sixth, he allowed a two run homerun to Austin Jackson right after Ryan Raburn singled. He got out of the inning, and then started the seventh with only 85 pitches. He got the first two outs, but then gave up consecutive homeruns to Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta.
Max Scherzer was impressive tonight. He went seven innings, giving up five hits while walking one and striking out six. The only run he gave up was when Carlos Santana scored on a wild pitch. The inning should have been over already though, because with two outs Lonnie Chisenhall hit a ground ball to first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who then stumbled and threw a wild toss over to Scherzer who was covering the base, and pulled him off. The play was rules a hit, but I think that it should have been an error on Cabrera. The Indians lineup contained 8 left handed or switch hitters against Scherzer, in an effort to neutralize Scherzer's slider. Scherzer used his changeup more than I've ever seen tonight, and it was a good pitch for him. He threw it often, and kept it in the bottom of the strike zone. Scherzer's uses a max-effort delivery, and it looked like his arm slot would vary from pitch to pitch between a three quarters delivery and a delivery only slightly above sidearm. I don't know how Scherzer keeps control of his pitches throwing like that, but he's walking only 2.7 batters per nine innings this year.
Detroit is now 2.5 games ahead of the Indians, and it looks like Chicago is going to lose at the moment, so they'll be five games back. Game two of the series is tomorrow and matches David Huff against Doug Fister in a game I think that they should and have to win.
Indians Tigers Weekend
So this is shaping up to be a big weekend, at least for the American League Central. The Indians are in Detroit this weekend, while the White Sox host Texas. The pitching match ups for the Indians/Tigers are very interesting with Tomlin vs Scherer tonight, Huff vs Fister Saturday, and Jimenez vs Porcello to wrap it up on Sunday. The Indians took 2 of 3 from the White Sox this week, while Detroit lost two of three to Minnesota. The Indians get a break by avoiding Justin Verlander in this series, and that gives them a chance to sweep. I think that the Indians have the pitching advantage in all three games of the series.
In the first game, Josh Tomlin has been good all season, while Max Scherzer has had his ups and downs. Scherzer has allowed eight earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts, but has struck out 15. The Indians strikeout a lot, and if Scherzer finds his good fastball/slider combination, it could be tough for the Tribe to get anything going against him.
Game two pits David Huff against Doug Fister. Huff made three starts in late July and early August, but was then sent down to the minors. He's back up to replace Carlos Carrasco, who is on the DL with an elbow injury. He did well in his earlier callup, and the surprising thing was his strikeout rate. He's struck out 15 in 17.2 innings this year, and held opponents to a 0.51 ERA in his small stint with the big club. Fister has struggled since going to Detroit, with an ERA of 6.14. This is the game that I think the Tribe has to take.
The finale has Ubaldo Jimenez against Rick Porcello. Both of these guys have struggled of late, Ubaldo since his arrival in Cleveland, and Porcello got pounded for eight earned runs over 3.2 innings on August 10th against the Tribe. Both of these two guys are too good to struggle like they have recently. One or both of them should figure it out Sunday, and if only one does, this game could get ugly. If both do, it could be a great finale to the series.
In the first game, Josh Tomlin has been good all season, while Max Scherzer has had his ups and downs. Scherzer has allowed eight earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts, but has struck out 15. The Indians strikeout a lot, and if Scherzer finds his good fastball/slider combination, it could be tough for the Tribe to get anything going against him.
Game two pits David Huff against Doug Fister. Huff made three starts in late July and early August, but was then sent down to the minors. He's back up to replace Carlos Carrasco, who is on the DL with an elbow injury. He did well in his earlier callup, and the surprising thing was his strikeout rate. He's struck out 15 in 17.2 innings this year, and held opponents to a 0.51 ERA in his small stint with the big club. Fister has struggled since going to Detroit, with an ERA of 6.14. This is the game that I think the Tribe has to take.
The finale has Ubaldo Jimenez against Rick Porcello. Both of these guys have struggled of late, Ubaldo since his arrival in Cleveland, and Porcello got pounded for eight earned runs over 3.2 innings on August 10th against the Tribe. Both of these two guys are too good to struggle like they have recently. One or both of them should figure it out Sunday, and if only one does, this game could get ugly. If both do, it could be a great finale to the series.
What's Next for the Cubs
The Cubs fired their General Manager Jim Hendry today. He's been the Cubs GM since 2002, a season in which they won 88 games, and made it to the NLCS. From then on, it's been a mixed bag of terrible, disarray, and disappointment. There was a good seasons in 2007 and 2008, when they held the best record in the NL with 97 wins, but were swept out of the NLDS in both years.
So what's next for the Cubs? Well, Randy Bush will take over in the interim, until the Ricketts' family can find someone new. Bush was assistant GM, and is familiar with the organization, so hopefully he knows what has to be done. Fire sale. Everything must go. The Cubs should be shopping everyone on their roster except for Starlin Castro. Trading for Matt Garza wasn't a smart move and really depleted their farm system, which was average at best before the move was made. The fact is that they aren't going to be competitive for a few years. Anyone who isn't going to be there in a few years should be moved. In the offseason, the Cubs should look to sell off some of their big names, like Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Aramis Ramirez, and Marlon Byrd. They should look to bring high end hitters, along with as many arms as they can, even if they're only a bunch of type B or C prospects. Whatever they don't get rid of in the offseason, they should still be looking to sell during next season. During the season, they'll be able to get more for their bullpen pieces and utility players, like Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, and Darwin Barney.
The team needs to gain a new philosophy about acquiring big leaguers, too. For the last decade, they've been bringing in players who strikeout a lot, never take walks, but can hit homeruns. This philosophy leads to way too many 1-2-3 innings, batters striking out with a man on third and less than two outs, and solo home runs. As spring turns to summer, the ball starts to fly out of Wrigley field, and power has never been a problem for them, but they need players who can get on base in front of their sluggers. Starlin Castro can become a player like that, but his walk rate has dropped this year, to under 4%. Tyler Colvin could be an emerging slugger for the team as a corner outfielder, but his walk rate has also dropped from last year, and is now at 6.4% for the year.
So what's next for the Cubs? Well, Randy Bush will take over in the interim, until the Ricketts' family can find someone new. Bush was assistant GM, and is familiar with the organization, so hopefully he knows what has to be done. Fire sale. Everything must go. The Cubs should be shopping everyone on their roster except for Starlin Castro. Trading for Matt Garza wasn't a smart move and really depleted their farm system, which was average at best before the move was made. The fact is that they aren't going to be competitive for a few years. Anyone who isn't going to be there in a few years should be moved. In the offseason, the Cubs should look to sell off some of their big names, like Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Aramis Ramirez, and Marlon Byrd. They should look to bring high end hitters, along with as many arms as they can, even if they're only a bunch of type B or C prospects. Whatever they don't get rid of in the offseason, they should still be looking to sell during next season. During the season, they'll be able to get more for their bullpen pieces and utility players, like Jeff Baker, Blake DeWitt, and Darwin Barney.
The team needs to gain a new philosophy about acquiring big leaguers, too. For the last decade, they've been bringing in players who strikeout a lot, never take walks, but can hit homeruns. This philosophy leads to way too many 1-2-3 innings, batters striking out with a man on third and less than two outs, and solo home runs. As spring turns to summer, the ball starts to fly out of Wrigley field, and power has never been a problem for them, but they need players who can get on base in front of their sluggers. Starlin Castro can become a player like that, but his walk rate has dropped this year, to under 4%. Tyler Colvin could be an emerging slugger for the team as a corner outfielder, but his walk rate has also dropped from last year, and is now at 6.4% for the year.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Jim Thome's Hall of Fame Case
So since Jim Thome hit his 600th home run on Monday night, and since then there's been a lot of talk about whether or not he's a hall of famer or not. I'm sorry, but wasn't he a hall of famer when he hit number 500?
When judging hall of fame credentials, I think that there are two things to look for. The length of a player's career, and the peak of the player's career. Thome definitely has the length, with this being his twenty first season in the league. He's not hanging on as a shell of his former self like so many others do. His production has dropped off, but his on base percentage over the last three years in .380, and his slugging percentage is .533. Neither of those are more than 25 points below his career averages. His career batting average is only .277, which is respectable, but a lot of people that think batting average is the best stat for determining how often a player got on base. These people have never heard of on base percentage apparently.
Thome also had a pretty dominant peak to his career. From 1995-2007 he never posted an OPS below .900 except for 2005 where he missed most of the year with an elbow injury. His best year came in his last year with the Indians in 2002. That year he hit .304/.445/.667 with 52 home runs and nearly a 1:1 K/BB rate. His OPS+ for the year was 197, which led the league and shows that even in the steroid era, this was a phenomenal year. He never won an MVP award, and actually never finished better than sixth in the vote, but this is mostly due to the slight retardation of the voters (it's only been in recent years that they've figured out that wins for a pitcher aren't the best way to measure performance). He only made five all-star teams, but much like MVP awards, I don't put much stock into that. Fans vote for the all-star game, and in the AL, if you're not in the AL East, good luck.
This past year, the only position player to make the hall of fame was Roberto Alomar. Alomar was a great player, and many people thought he should be a first ballot hall of famer. Alomar has a career wins above replacement of 68.0. Thome's career WAR is currently 71.0. In 2009, Andre Dawson was the only player inducted into the hall, and his career WAR was only 62.3. Thome's career WAR is built largely on his OBP, which is over .400 for his career. The value of this wasn't recognized until half way through his career. His OBP is reflected in his career wOBA of .403. wOBA measures a player's total offensive performance and is to be viewed on the same scale as on base percentage.
The people who say that Thome has been a DH his whole career aren't remembering the whole story. He was a third baseman for the first six years of his career, and then was a first baseman for nine years. He's only been a full time DH since he returned to the American League in 2006. His early seasons were probably overlooked because he was always over shadowed by Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez on those mid-to-late nineties Indians teams.
Ken Griffey Jr. has 630 homeruns, and is currently 5th all time. If Thome plays out this year and next year, he could pass Griffey. Alex Rodriguez would also most likely pass Griffey before Thome comes up for the HOF vote, but if Thome were to pass Griffey, I think it would really help his case for the hall. Thome, of all players, would benefit the most by playing as long as he can. Not only will it add to his counting stats, but in the future, hopefully voters learn a little and realize OBP is more important than BA, and that awards and all-star appearances don't define a career.
Everyone who plays with Thome recalls the time with him in a positive light. By all accounts, he's a great teammate in every aspect. He's also never been linked with steroid use, in an era where home run records haven't been as majestic as in previous years.
Around the League:
I watched the Cubs vs Astros game yesterday. Wow, the Cubs had the bases loaded and no outs twice, and didn't score once in those situations. I watch a good share of Cubs games because in the afternoon, they're the only thing on. Their ability to not score a run when there is a runner on second with less than two outs is epic.
Special Shout out:
Shout out to my blog's #1 fan Brittany. For your loyal reading, I will buy you three cases of natural light, and then proceed to drink most of it myself.
When judging hall of fame credentials, I think that there are two things to look for. The length of a player's career, and the peak of the player's career. Thome definitely has the length, with this being his twenty first season in the league. He's not hanging on as a shell of his former self like so many others do. His production has dropped off, but his on base percentage over the last three years in .380, and his slugging percentage is .533. Neither of those are more than 25 points below his career averages. His career batting average is only .277, which is respectable, but a lot of people that think batting average is the best stat for determining how often a player got on base. These people have never heard of on base percentage apparently.
Thome also had a pretty dominant peak to his career. From 1995-2007 he never posted an OPS below .900 except for 2005 where he missed most of the year with an elbow injury. His best year came in his last year with the Indians in 2002. That year he hit .304/.445/.667 with 52 home runs and nearly a 1:1 K/BB rate. His OPS+ for the year was 197, which led the league and shows that even in the steroid era, this was a phenomenal year. He never won an MVP award, and actually never finished better than sixth in the vote, but this is mostly due to the slight retardation of the voters (it's only been in recent years that they've figured out that wins for a pitcher aren't the best way to measure performance). He only made five all-star teams, but much like MVP awards, I don't put much stock into that. Fans vote for the all-star game, and in the AL, if you're not in the AL East, good luck.
This past year, the only position player to make the hall of fame was Roberto Alomar. Alomar was a great player, and many people thought he should be a first ballot hall of famer. Alomar has a career wins above replacement of 68.0. Thome's career WAR is currently 71.0. In 2009, Andre Dawson was the only player inducted into the hall, and his career WAR was only 62.3. Thome's career WAR is built largely on his OBP, which is over .400 for his career. The value of this wasn't recognized until half way through his career. His OBP is reflected in his career wOBA of .403. wOBA measures a player's total offensive performance and is to be viewed on the same scale as on base percentage.
The people who say that Thome has been a DH his whole career aren't remembering the whole story. He was a third baseman for the first six years of his career, and then was a first baseman for nine years. He's only been a full time DH since he returned to the American League in 2006. His early seasons were probably overlooked because he was always over shadowed by Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez on those mid-to-late nineties Indians teams.
Ken Griffey Jr. has 630 homeruns, and is currently 5th all time. If Thome plays out this year and next year, he could pass Griffey. Alex Rodriguez would also most likely pass Griffey before Thome comes up for the HOF vote, but if Thome were to pass Griffey, I think it would really help his case for the hall. Thome, of all players, would benefit the most by playing as long as he can. Not only will it add to his counting stats, but in the future, hopefully voters learn a little and realize OBP is more important than BA, and that awards and all-star appearances don't define a career.
Everyone who plays with Thome recalls the time with him in a positive light. By all accounts, he's a great teammate in every aspect. He's also never been linked with steroid use, in an era where home run records haven't been as majestic as in previous years.
Around the League:
I watched the Cubs vs Astros game yesterday. Wow, the Cubs had the bases loaded and no outs twice, and didn't score once in those situations. I watch a good share of Cubs games because in the afternoon, they're the only thing on. Their ability to not score a run when there is a runner on second with less than two outs is epic.
Special Shout out:
Shout out to my blog's #1 fan Brittany. For your loyal reading, I will buy you three cases of natural light, and then proceed to drink most of it myself.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
The Tribe got Lindor and Howard Signed Right Before the Deadline
Let me start by saying that I've never seen Francisco Lindor, the Indians first round pick, or Dillon Howard, second round pick, except for a few youtube clips. Lindor is a high school prep shortstop from Florida, and Howard is a prep right-handed pitcher from Little Rock.
Lindor was the best high school shortstop in this year's draft class, and unlike most high school shortstops, there's doesn't seem to be any worry that we will have to move off the position. He's only seventeen, which gives him more upside than other eighteen-year-old high school players. He's got solid tools across the board, with his best tool being his arm. He's got a high floor and his young age also gives him a higher ceiling. We learned last year when Mike Trout broke out in the minors, that taking a seventeen year old player can pay off big in the draft, because of the added potential for growth. With the Indians likely to lose Asdrubal after 2013, hopefully we will only need a one-year stopgap before Lindor is ready to contribute to the club.
Dillon Howard is a tall right-handed pitcher with a fastball that sits in the lower to mid-nineties paired with an inconsistent curveball. He looks to have a simple, smooth delivery, which usually suggests that control shouldn't be a problem for him going forward. He also has, by all accounts, a good feel for a changeup, which is something that a lot of high schoolers don't have because they don't want to speed up hitters' bats. I imagine that the Indians will do their best to teach him a sinker (because that’s what they do). He has the make-up to be a solid 2 or 3 starter.
At the time of the pick, he was the consensus best available player on the board. I'm a fan of taking the best player on the board regardless of signability because the draft is the best way to get talent into your system, and if my franchise is going to make a mistake, I'd much rather it be giving a high round draft pick a few extra hundred thousand than giving
John Lackey $83 million. I made this a new paragraph on purpose because I didn't want to jinx our new player by putting him and John Lackey in the same paragraph.
But seriously, I don't understand why teams are so fickle with money and draft picks. It seems to me that the teams with the best farm systems are the ones that take the best players available and do what they can to get them signed. This year's first overall pick was Gerrit Cole, and he signed with the Pirates for $8 million. Super nerd stats tell us that one win above replacement has been worth between $4-5 million in recent off seasons. So if Gerrit Cole has a career WAR of 2.0, then this is a good investment for the Pirates. A career WAR of 2.0 for the first overall pick doesn't sound too difficult, as long as he doesn’t blow out his arm.
Lindor was the best high school shortstop in this year's draft class, and unlike most high school shortstops, there's doesn't seem to be any worry that we will have to move off the position. He's only seventeen, which gives him more upside than other eighteen-year-old high school players. He's got solid tools across the board, with his best tool being his arm. He's got a high floor and his young age also gives him a higher ceiling. We learned last year when Mike Trout broke out in the minors, that taking a seventeen year old player can pay off big in the draft, because of the added potential for growth. With the Indians likely to lose Asdrubal after 2013, hopefully we will only need a one-year stopgap before Lindor is ready to contribute to the club.
Dillon Howard is a tall right-handed pitcher with a fastball that sits in the lower to mid-nineties paired with an inconsistent curveball. He looks to have a simple, smooth delivery, which usually suggests that control shouldn't be a problem for him going forward. He also has, by all accounts, a good feel for a changeup, which is something that a lot of high schoolers don't have because they don't want to speed up hitters' bats. I imagine that the Indians will do their best to teach him a sinker (because that’s what they do). He has the make-up to be a solid 2 or 3 starter.
At the time of the pick, he was the consensus best available player on the board. I'm a fan of taking the best player on the board regardless of signability because the draft is the best way to get talent into your system, and if my franchise is going to make a mistake, I'd much rather it be giving a high round draft pick a few extra hundred thousand than giving
John Lackey $83 million. I made this a new paragraph on purpose because I didn't want to jinx our new player by putting him and John Lackey in the same paragraph.
But seriously, I don't understand why teams are so fickle with money and draft picks. It seems to me that the teams with the best farm systems are the ones that take the best players available and do what they can to get them signed. This year's first overall pick was Gerrit Cole, and he signed with the Pirates for $8 million. Super nerd stats tell us that one win above replacement has been worth between $4-5 million in recent off seasons. So if Gerrit Cole has a career WAR of 2.0, then this is a good investment for the Pirates. A career WAR of 2.0 for the first overall pick doesn't sound too difficult, as long as he doesn’t blow out his arm.
The MLB needs to change the draft deadline. All drafted players sign either within a week of the draft, or the day of the deadline. There's two months in between where nothing happens. The deadline needs to be moved up so players can get some minor league time. Since both Lindor and Howard waited until the deadline, they won't get any minor league time this year, but will most likely be assigned to fall or winter league, and then report to Lake County next spring.
Around the League:
Congratulations to Jim Thome on hitting number 600. Best part about it is that he helped the Twins defeat the Tigers in the process. He was always my second favorite growing up behind Kenny Lofton. He also shares the same birthday as my brother and girlfriend.
Around the League:
Congratulations to Jim Thome on hitting number 600. Best part about it is that he helped the Twins defeat the Tigers in the process. He was always my second favorite growing up behind Kenny Lofton. He also shares the same birthday as my brother and girlfriend.
Also, the Mariners scores six runs on Monday night, giving them the seven runs scores for the year.
Monday, August 15, 2011
The Logan Morrison Ordeal
The Marlins sent rookie left fielder Logan Morrison down to Class-AAA New Orleans yesterday, citing his second half struggles as a reason. While LoMo has struggled in the second half, there is reason to believe that there in more to the story. There is a report that Morrison was sent down as punishment over a dispute about a local charity event with Jeffrey Loria.
Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria isn't viewed to well in a lot of baseball circles. He's viewed as a business man who's primary goal is to make money, instead of trying to win. Since winning the 2003 World Series, Loria's primary goal has been to get local taxpayers to build a new stadium, claiming that he couldn't afford to do it himself, and threatened to move the team if he couldn't get a new stadium. He also sheds any high priced players in order to keep their payroll low, citing that the team doesn't make a profit. After the MLB learned that the team does in fact make a profit, and Loria was pocketing most of it, the MLB stepped in and forced the Marlins to spend the money that they revieved frm revenue sharing. That's why Hanley Ramirez and Josh Joshson got signed to long term deals and aren't on the Yankees at this point.
Loria has been known to force his organization to trade players that he has a personal conflict with, and this may soon be the same with Logan Morrison. If i were a general manager of another team in the major leagues, I would keep my eye on the situation, and look to pounce during the offseason.
Last offseason, the Marlins got rid of Cameron Maybin and Dan Uggla. I agree with getting rid of Uggla, because as a big, slow second baseman, he doesn't profile as a player who would age well. His defense has never even approached league average, and is getting worse. However, I think that they could have gotten more for him than utility infielder Omar Infante and middle reliever Mike Dunn. Cameron Maybin is a true center fielder who plays well above average in the field. Maybin has struggles at the plate, but is only 24, and is quietly having a good year this year. The problem with the Maybin trade is they had no one to replace him, and got two relief pitchers back for him. Chris Coghlan is the Marlins new centerfielder. He's a converted second baseman who would be a below average defender in left field. Within three days last November, the Marlins got rid of Uggla and Maybin for Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Edward Mujica, and Ryan Webb. Teams that are run well do not trade their assets for relief pitchers. That is a fact. If you look at the bullpen of successful teams in recent years, their pitchers are home grown, claimed off waivers, acquired for a prospect, or picked off of a scrap heap. But no teams give away good assets to get relief pitchers.
Back to Logan Morrison, he's had a strange year this year. He came up in the Marlins system as a first baseman who could hit for average, get on base, and hit for league average power. So far this year, the average has been a little low, leading to a lower on base percentage than expected, but the power has developed faster than people thought. He only hit more than 13 homeruns once in the minor leagues, but 17 in only 362 at bats so far this year. He's been playing left field in the majors because Gaby Sanchez has ben manning first base the past two years, and is still learning how to play the outfield. He's only 23, and his bat should play anywhere in the field.
If I managed the Indians, I would be calling the Marlins as soon as I could, to try and acquire Morrison. They could move him back to first base, and build a package around a few relievers, Matt LaPorta, and maybe a prospect. If the Indians are really trying to win in the next few years, they can't keep waiting in LaPorta, they simply need to get more out of first base.
Around the League:
The Brewers are really starting to separate themselves from the Cardinals. They've won 16 of their last 18, including taking four of six against the Cardinals, and have a five game lead in the division now. Twelve of those wins came against the Astros, Cubs, and Pirates, so take that for what it's worth, but they're hot right now.
The Diamondbacks are hitting the crap out of the ball right now. The Giants are actually have a negative run differential right now, but are still managing to stay afloat because their bullpen allows them to win a lot of close games.
One thing that will get on my nerves from here until the end of the regular season will be the decisions made be executives at ESPN and other networks. The Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees have all but assured their playoff spots, while the other five spots are still up for grabs. I hope that they aren't shown on national television every chance that they can while other teams are pressing for the playoffs are ignored. I'd much rather see the Indians, Tigers, Cardinals, Brewers, Giants, and Diamondbacks rather than watch the Yankees go through the motions three nights a week.
Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria isn't viewed to well in a lot of baseball circles. He's viewed as a business man who's primary goal is to make money, instead of trying to win. Since winning the 2003 World Series, Loria's primary goal has been to get local taxpayers to build a new stadium, claiming that he couldn't afford to do it himself, and threatened to move the team if he couldn't get a new stadium. He also sheds any high priced players in order to keep their payroll low, citing that the team doesn't make a profit. After the MLB learned that the team does in fact make a profit, and Loria was pocketing most of it, the MLB stepped in and forced the Marlins to spend the money that they revieved frm revenue sharing. That's why Hanley Ramirez and Josh Joshson got signed to long term deals and aren't on the Yankees at this point.
Loria has been known to force his organization to trade players that he has a personal conflict with, and this may soon be the same with Logan Morrison. If i were a general manager of another team in the major leagues, I would keep my eye on the situation, and look to pounce during the offseason.
Last offseason, the Marlins got rid of Cameron Maybin and Dan Uggla. I agree with getting rid of Uggla, because as a big, slow second baseman, he doesn't profile as a player who would age well. His defense has never even approached league average, and is getting worse. However, I think that they could have gotten more for him than utility infielder Omar Infante and middle reliever Mike Dunn. Cameron Maybin is a true center fielder who plays well above average in the field. Maybin has struggles at the plate, but is only 24, and is quietly having a good year this year. The problem with the Maybin trade is they had no one to replace him, and got two relief pitchers back for him. Chris Coghlan is the Marlins new centerfielder. He's a converted second baseman who would be a below average defender in left field. Within three days last November, the Marlins got rid of Uggla and Maybin for Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Edward Mujica, and Ryan Webb. Teams that are run well do not trade their assets for relief pitchers. That is a fact. If you look at the bullpen of successful teams in recent years, their pitchers are home grown, claimed off waivers, acquired for a prospect, or picked off of a scrap heap. But no teams give away good assets to get relief pitchers.
Back to Logan Morrison, he's had a strange year this year. He came up in the Marlins system as a first baseman who could hit for average, get on base, and hit for league average power. So far this year, the average has been a little low, leading to a lower on base percentage than expected, but the power has developed faster than people thought. He only hit more than 13 homeruns once in the minor leagues, but 17 in only 362 at bats so far this year. He's been playing left field in the majors because Gaby Sanchez has ben manning first base the past two years, and is still learning how to play the outfield. He's only 23, and his bat should play anywhere in the field.
If I managed the Indians, I would be calling the Marlins as soon as I could, to try and acquire Morrison. They could move him back to first base, and build a package around a few relievers, Matt LaPorta, and maybe a prospect. If the Indians are really trying to win in the next few years, they can't keep waiting in LaPorta, they simply need to get more out of first base.
Around the League:
The Brewers are really starting to separate themselves from the Cardinals. They've won 16 of their last 18, including taking four of six against the Cardinals, and have a five game lead in the division now. Twelve of those wins came against the Astros, Cubs, and Pirates, so take that for what it's worth, but they're hot right now.
The Diamondbacks are hitting the crap out of the ball right now. The Giants are actually have a negative run differential right now, but are still managing to stay afloat because their bullpen allows them to win a lot of close games.
One thing that will get on my nerves from here until the end of the regular season will be the decisions made be executives at ESPN and other networks. The Phillies, Red Sox, and Yankees have all but assured their playoff spots, while the other five spots are still up for grabs. I hope that they aren't shown on national television every chance that they can while other teams are pressing for the playoffs are ignored. I'd much rather see the Indians, Tigers, Cardinals, Brewers, Giants, and Diamondbacks rather than watch the Yankees go through the motions three nights a week.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Ryan Braun Running Wild
About five minutes ago, Ryan Braun stole his 22nd base of the year. Coming into this year, his career high was 20. As the owner of Braun in two fantasy leagues, I'm fine with this. However, I find Milwaukee's strategy perplexing. When healthy, the 2-3-4-5 in the Milwaukee lineup this year has been Nyger Morgan, Braun, Prince Fielder, and Casey McGehee. Braun and Fielder are having MVP caliber seasons at the plate, while Casey McGehee has struggled for the most part. Nyger Morgan has been doing what is expected of him, hitting for average and putting up a good OBP. The strange thing though is that Morgan has only six stolen bases this season, after swiping 42 in 2009 and 34 in 2010.
Now, conventional wisdom is that if Morgan is on first with Braun at the plate, Braun can already plate Morgan with a double or homerun. If Morgan steals second, it will take the bat out of Braun's hands, and he'll just be pitched around. I don't think this is really true though, because walking Braun in this situation would bring Prince to the plate with two men on base, which is not the optimal situation that a manager wants to put his pitchers in.
Braun also has enough speed to score from first on a double hit by Fielder, especially with all of the strange angles in their home park (it was designed a little crazy because the owner liked to see triples). Sixteen of Braun's 22 steals have come with right handed pitchers on the mound. If I'm a right handed pitcher with Fielder at the plate and first base open, I'd pitch around him more often than not, and take my chances with McGehee. Even against lefties, Fielder has an OPS .366 higher than McGehee, that's almost a difference of Alex Rios.
The only reason I can find for giving Braun the green light on the base paths, but not Morgan is that Braun has been much more efficient at base stealing during his career. Braun's career stolen base percentage is 79.4% while Morgan's career mark is only 68.5%, including leading the league in caught stealing in 2009 and 2010.
I know that we all learned in Moneyball that we want to put as many base runners on base as possible, but today's game is more specialized, and closer to a three outcome system of walks, strikeouts, and home runs. I fear that much as teams used to overvalue college players during the draft, we are now overrating the on base percentage of better hitters when they are followed by hitters who are far inferior batter. In "Baseball Between the Numbers," the Baseball Prospectus crew had a table (it's on page 46 of my edition) that tells what the difference in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage have to be between consecutive hitters in certain situations to justify an intentional walk. I feel like even people comfortable with advanced metrics forget that a walk to Babe Ruth can be a bad thing if he's followed by Mario Mendoza.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Holes for Teams Still Contending
The trade deadline has passed, but teams can still make trades through waivers. Some teams, like the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies have almost locked up their playoff births already, but most of the other contenders will battle it out for the remainder of the season. Teams can still add help by promoting players from the minor leagues, or making waiver deals.
The way waivers trades work is actually pretty simple. A team puts a player on waivers, and any team in the league (National or American) can put in claims on them. The team with the worst record that puts the claim in gets the player, unless the original team pulls him back. After a player clears his own league, he can be claimed by the other league. Teams can also block a competitor from getting a player by putting in a claim on them if they have a worse record. For instance, if the Phillies want to waiver claim for a player, the Braves could block them, since the Braves have a worse record than the Phillies, and might not want them to get stronger. Anyone acquired before the waiver trade deadline can be eligible to be on the playoff roster.
The teams I think are contenders this year are the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rangers and Angels.
Phillies - Philadelphia is pretty much set for the post season. Hunter Pence put them over the top to be the favorite in the National League. I think that the team could use a extra bench bat and possibly another lefty reliever. As it stands, their best bench bat is probably John Mayberry Jr. They might bring up Dominic Brown for the postseason to be a left handed bat off the bench, or acquire one some time this month. Assuming the Phillies have the big four healthy for the postseason, Vance Worley and/or Kyle Kendrick will be sent to the bullpen. The bullpen will be stong, but Antonio Bastardo is the only lefty. I think adding another lefty would go a long way for them, as it would help deal with Prince Fielder, Brian McCann, and would turn Lance Berkman around to his weaker side.
Braves - A week ago, the Braves looked to have a lock on the NL Wildcard, but since Brian McCann has been out, they've really struggled. Their starting pitching is sound, but their bullpen is a little too left handed for my taste. Scott Linebrink is the only righty that they can trust before Craig Kimbrel comes in. I would like to say that they could use an extra bat, but I can't see where they'd put it. I think getting Brian McCann back will be huge for them. I think that a right handed bench bat would help even out the lineup.
Cardinals - The Cardinals added Aurthor Rhodes this week, which fills a hole for them. Their outfield defense is below average. But they can put Corey Patterson in late in the game in centerfield, and push John Jay over to right, it'd make everyone a little more comfortable.
Brewers - I don't know how the Brewers haven't addressed their defense yet. Here's a list of their above average defenders: . Yeah, that's it. The pitching staff is mostly strikeout guys, which helps, but they need to do something about the right side of the infield. Casey McGehee and Yukiesky Betancourt are terrible defenders on the left side of the infield, and aren't contributing anything at the plate. Their combined WAR for the year is 0.1. They are replacement level, anything would be an upgrade. I would think that they would try to replace either one of them, preferably with a high OBP guy, because after Prince Fielder all the have is a whole bunch of sub .315 on base guys.
Giants - The Giants need to upgrade at the catchers spot. A shortstop who can play defense wouldn't hurt either. I wrote more about them in my last post, check it out.
Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks got acquired Jason Marquis at the deadline, but so far it hasn't been pretty. I don't trust anyone in the rotation besides Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. Kevin Towers has done a good job with the bullpen, and adding Brad Ziegler has solidified that for the rest of the season. They've had a black hole at first base for most of the year. They started the year with Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, and Xavier Nady. Miranda and Branyan are no longer with the team, and Xavier Nady broke his hand tonight. Paul Goldschmidt isn't ready for the majors, and looks overwhelmed. I think at his peek he could be a big league regular, but nothing more. Adding a first baseman would really help them. Carlos Pena would fit well, and probably wouldn't cost them very much.
Yankees - The Yankees can probably already stamp their tickets for the playoffs, they're seven games up in the wildcard, and only 1.5 games behind the Red Sox. They're currently carrying three catchers, and getting nothing out of any of them. They can't really add one, because of Jesus Montero in the minors. Boone Logan is the only lefty in the bullpen, and they could use another one. J.C. Romero is the most likely candidate, as they recently signed him to a minor league deal.
Red Sox - I thought that when the Red Sox added Erik Bedard, it was a good move. Mostly because Bedard is usually a two outcome pitcher, either he's effective, or he's hurt. He hasn't been either of those things so far in Boston. If he doesn't figure it out before the end of the season, the Red Sox will only have two starters that they can go to war with. After Lester and Beckett, they'll have to choose between Bedard or John Lackey (who got hit around by the Mariners tonight) for game three. They can shorten games with their bullpen, but need Bedard to step up in the rotation.
Tigers - The additions of Wilson Betemit and Doug Fister were both good transactions I thought for the Tigers. They've been playing well of late, but I think their bullpen could still use an upgrade. They signed Joaquin Benoit to be their eighth inning guy, but he hasn't been effective this year. They need someone to step up as a more reliable bridge to Jose Valverde. Al Alburquerque (Best. Name. Ever.) could be that guy if he could control his walk rate. Relievers are often who gets moved in waiver deals, and with them needing a right handed one, I think that if they want to, they could make something happen.
Indians - Shin-Soo Choo came back a little earlier than expected tonight, which was a welcome surprise. If the Tribe gets Sizemore back, they will have a strong outfield with Choo, Sizemore, Brantley, and Fukudome. I'm done with the Matt LaPorta experiment. He has a WAR of -0.5. He's the hole in the lineup, and much like Arizona, the Indians would be a good fit for Carlos Pena. I also think that adding a right hander out of the bullpen would help. Carmona has been better since coming off the DL, and if it continues could slot in well as a number three starter.
White Sox - I'm not sure what this team is doing. They should be trying to win the division but aren't Adam Dunn should be sat down, and Dayan Viciendo should get a shot at DH. If they are going to keep Dunn in the lineup, he shouldn't be batting fourth still. Their rotation and bullpen are ok, I'm just not sure what they're doing on offense. Their best bet at the hot corner was probably to platoon Brent Morel and Mark Teahen, but Teahen got sent to Toronto with Edwin Jackson. This team is only five games back, but isn't acting like they want to make a run at it this year.
Rangers - The Rangers brought in two relievers before the deadline, and they each have had rocky starts with the team. This shouldn't be a problem, I think the Rangers pitching staff is fine, and their three lefty starters would match up good with the Yankees in the playoffs. I think they need a center fielder, however. They've been playing Endy Chavez in centerfield, and while he's been fine, I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out. They have a lot of fly ball pitchers, and a good center fielder would be a big plus. Julio Borbon has been hitting well in the minors, and if the Rangers brought him up, put him in centerfield, and batted him ninth, it'd be an upgrade.
Angels - The Angels, much like the White Sox, haven't really done much to help their cause. They're only one game out, but haven't made any moves so far this year. A relief pitcher and another power bat could help this team. Excluding Mark Trumbo and Vernon Wells, none of their hitters scare me. Torii Hunter is barely slugging .400, and Bobby Abreu's only skill is taking walks. They have three stud starting pitchers who could reek havoc in the playoffs if they were to make it.
All of these teams could make themselves better, although it will be harder for some. Relief pitchers are generally the easiest commodity to find at this point, so teams looking to add those should be ok. The big prizes could be Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Pena, and possibly Aramis Ramirez. Wandy could fit well with Arizona if they don't like what they see in Jason Marquis in the coming weeks. The Cubs apparently view Jeff Baker as the future for them at the hot corner (as he was deemed "not avaliable for trade" at the deadline), so Aramis Ramirez could make a difference to the Brewers or the Angels if they wake up.
The way waivers trades work is actually pretty simple. A team puts a player on waivers, and any team in the league (National or American) can put in claims on them. The team with the worst record that puts the claim in gets the player, unless the original team pulls him back. After a player clears his own league, he can be claimed by the other league. Teams can also block a competitor from getting a player by putting in a claim on them if they have a worse record. For instance, if the Phillies want to waiver claim for a player, the Braves could block them, since the Braves have a worse record than the Phillies, and might not want them to get stronger. Anyone acquired before the waiver trade deadline can be eligible to be on the playoff roster.
The teams I think are contenders this year are the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Rangers and Angels.
Phillies - Philadelphia is pretty much set for the post season. Hunter Pence put them over the top to be the favorite in the National League. I think that the team could use a extra bench bat and possibly another lefty reliever. As it stands, their best bench bat is probably John Mayberry Jr. They might bring up Dominic Brown for the postseason to be a left handed bat off the bench, or acquire one some time this month. Assuming the Phillies have the big four healthy for the postseason, Vance Worley and/or Kyle Kendrick will be sent to the bullpen. The bullpen will be stong, but Antonio Bastardo is the only lefty. I think adding another lefty would go a long way for them, as it would help deal with Prince Fielder, Brian McCann, and would turn Lance Berkman around to his weaker side.
Braves - A week ago, the Braves looked to have a lock on the NL Wildcard, but since Brian McCann has been out, they've really struggled. Their starting pitching is sound, but their bullpen is a little too left handed for my taste. Scott Linebrink is the only righty that they can trust before Craig Kimbrel comes in. I would like to say that they could use an extra bat, but I can't see where they'd put it. I think getting Brian McCann back will be huge for them. I think that a right handed bench bat would help even out the lineup.
Cardinals - The Cardinals added Aurthor Rhodes this week, which fills a hole for them. Their outfield defense is below average. But they can put Corey Patterson in late in the game in centerfield, and push John Jay over to right, it'd make everyone a little more comfortable.
Brewers - I don't know how the Brewers haven't addressed their defense yet. Here's a list of their above average defenders: . Yeah, that's it. The pitching staff is mostly strikeout guys, which helps, but they need to do something about the right side of the infield. Casey McGehee and Yukiesky Betancourt are terrible defenders on the left side of the infield, and aren't contributing anything at the plate. Their combined WAR for the year is 0.1. They are replacement level, anything would be an upgrade. I would think that they would try to replace either one of them, preferably with a high OBP guy, because after Prince Fielder all the have is a whole bunch of sub .315 on base guys.
Giants - The Giants need to upgrade at the catchers spot. A shortstop who can play defense wouldn't hurt either. I wrote more about them in my last post, check it out.
Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks got acquired Jason Marquis at the deadline, but so far it hasn't been pretty. I don't trust anyone in the rotation besides Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. Kevin Towers has done a good job with the bullpen, and adding Brad Ziegler has solidified that for the rest of the season. They've had a black hole at first base for most of the year. They started the year with Juan Miranda, Russell Branyan, and Xavier Nady. Miranda and Branyan are no longer with the team, and Xavier Nady broke his hand tonight. Paul Goldschmidt isn't ready for the majors, and looks overwhelmed. I think at his peek he could be a big league regular, but nothing more. Adding a first baseman would really help them. Carlos Pena would fit well, and probably wouldn't cost them very much.
Yankees - The Yankees can probably already stamp their tickets for the playoffs, they're seven games up in the wildcard, and only 1.5 games behind the Red Sox. They're currently carrying three catchers, and getting nothing out of any of them. They can't really add one, because of Jesus Montero in the minors. Boone Logan is the only lefty in the bullpen, and they could use another one. J.C. Romero is the most likely candidate, as they recently signed him to a minor league deal.
Red Sox - I thought that when the Red Sox added Erik Bedard, it was a good move. Mostly because Bedard is usually a two outcome pitcher, either he's effective, or he's hurt. He hasn't been either of those things so far in Boston. If he doesn't figure it out before the end of the season, the Red Sox will only have two starters that they can go to war with. After Lester and Beckett, they'll have to choose between Bedard or John Lackey (who got hit around by the Mariners tonight) for game three. They can shorten games with their bullpen, but need Bedard to step up in the rotation.
Tigers - The additions of Wilson Betemit and Doug Fister were both good transactions I thought for the Tigers. They've been playing well of late, but I think their bullpen could still use an upgrade. They signed Joaquin Benoit to be their eighth inning guy, but he hasn't been effective this year. They need someone to step up as a more reliable bridge to Jose Valverde. Al Alburquerque (Best. Name. Ever.) could be that guy if he could control his walk rate. Relievers are often who gets moved in waiver deals, and with them needing a right handed one, I think that if they want to, they could make something happen.
Indians - Shin-Soo Choo came back a little earlier than expected tonight, which was a welcome surprise. If the Tribe gets Sizemore back, they will have a strong outfield with Choo, Sizemore, Brantley, and Fukudome. I'm done with the Matt LaPorta experiment. He has a WAR of -0.5. He's the hole in the lineup, and much like Arizona, the Indians would be a good fit for Carlos Pena. I also think that adding a right hander out of the bullpen would help. Carmona has been better since coming off the DL, and if it continues could slot in well as a number three starter.
White Sox - I'm not sure what this team is doing. They should be trying to win the division but aren't Adam Dunn should be sat down, and Dayan Viciendo should get a shot at DH. If they are going to keep Dunn in the lineup, he shouldn't be batting fourth still. Their rotation and bullpen are ok, I'm just not sure what they're doing on offense. Their best bet at the hot corner was probably to platoon Brent Morel and Mark Teahen, but Teahen got sent to Toronto with Edwin Jackson. This team is only five games back, but isn't acting like they want to make a run at it this year.
Rangers - The Rangers brought in two relievers before the deadline, and they each have had rocky starts with the team. This shouldn't be a problem, I think the Rangers pitching staff is fine, and their three lefty starters would match up good with the Yankees in the playoffs. I think they need a center fielder, however. They've been playing Endy Chavez in centerfield, and while he's been fine, I'm waiting for the bottom to fall out. They have a lot of fly ball pitchers, and a good center fielder would be a big plus. Julio Borbon has been hitting well in the minors, and if the Rangers brought him up, put him in centerfield, and batted him ninth, it'd be an upgrade.
Angels - The Angels, much like the White Sox, haven't really done much to help their cause. They're only one game out, but haven't made any moves so far this year. A relief pitcher and another power bat could help this team. Excluding Mark Trumbo and Vernon Wells, none of their hitters scare me. Torii Hunter is barely slugging .400, and Bobby Abreu's only skill is taking walks. They have three stud starting pitchers who could reek havoc in the playoffs if they were to make it.
All of these teams could make themselves better, although it will be harder for some. Relief pitchers are generally the easiest commodity to find at this point, so teams looking to add those should be ok. The big prizes could be Wandy Rodriguez, Carlos Pena, and possibly Aramis Ramirez. Wandy could fit well with Arizona if they don't like what they see in Jason Marquis in the coming weeks. The Cubs apparently view Jeff Baker as the future for them at the hot corner (as he was deemed "not avaliable for trade" at the deadline), so Aramis Ramirez could make a difference to the Brewers or the Angels if they wake up.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Why the Gaints Might Lose the West
Bescause they can't score any runs. They have a player in Brandon Belt who could give them an offensive boost similar to what Buster Posey gave them last year. Coming into the year, Belt was their top prospect, and started the year in the majors. He was sent down to the minors after struggling in 57 at bats. His BABIP was under .240, so he was getting unlucky, but he was taking walks, and probably would have come into his own if he would have been given the playing time. The real problem was that the Giants have Aubrey Huff, who is blocking Belt at first base. The Giants have tried to but both in the outfield, but neither has really worked out well out there.
Huff is 33 years old, and had a career year last year, and hit .290 with good power. Before 2010, Huff looked like a declining player with not much left in the tank. After 2010 year, the Giants gave huff a two year contract with a team option for a third year. Huff will earn $10 per year for the length of this contract. He has been terrible this year, batting under .250 with an on base percentage around .300. The Giants are paying him too much in their mind to not play him. They should have never given him this contract knowing that he was an aging, declining player, who was coming off a fluke year. Especially when their best prospect is MLB ready and plays the same position.
There is still time for Belt to make it to the majors in time to make an impact with the club thought. Their playoff hero Cody Ross was acquired last year off waivers from the Marlins on August 22.
Their pitching staff is top notch, but their position players are completely out of whack. At catcher, they lost Buster Posey at the beginning of the season, and have been living with Eli Whiteside ever since. The Reds have two catching prospects, Devin Mesoraco in AAA and Yasmani Grandal in AA. Mesoraco is the catcher of the future, and could come up and play right now. Ramon Hernandez could be put on favors, and very easily end up with the Giants.
At first base, they are still playing Aubrey Huff. I have very little doubt that Brandon Belt could outhit hit today given the chance. Belt is also, by all accounts, an above average fielder at first base, where as Huff is a liability.
Jeff Keppinger is fine at second base, after Freddy Sanchez went down and the Bill Hall experiment failed. And at third base, Pablo Sandoval is their best offensive player right now with Beltran currently sitting out.
Shortstop has been a blackhole on both offense and defense this year. Miguel Tejada and Orlando Cabrera both don't have the range to be league average defensively anymore, and both of their on base percentages are .275 this year. Brandon Crawford has managed that with above average defense, but is now back in the minors with Belt.
In the outfield things are a mess. They basically have Carlos Beltran, and then three players for the other two spots. When healthy Carlos Beltran should be playing everyday, in one of the corner spots. When Nate Schierholtz in the field with Beltran, Schierholtz should man right with Beltran in left simply because Schierholtz is a better defender with a cannon for an arm. Andres Torres has been good defensively, but hasn't been much at the plate this year. He's the only one that they have that can play a good center field, and should be there most days. Cody Ross can play all outfield spots, but not very well. It's a mess, and Bruce Bochy will most likely continue to mix and match. I don't see them being able to bring anyone in through a waiver trade who would be significantly better than their Ross, Torres and Schierholtz.
Their offense is mostly filled with older declining players, or players who's career might peak at being a league average player. Their pitching staff can carry them for the next few years, but their offense will need an overhaul if they want to continue to contend in future years. Their minor league system doesn't have much except Belt in the upper minors leagues. They could easily upgrade at catcher, shortstop, and first base by acquiring a Ramon Hernandez or Chris Iannetta type, and promoting Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford to play everyday. The Diamondbacks have taken over first place in the NL West, and should push the Giants until the end of the season. The Giants could easily win a few more games by making these small changes that would help them or defense with Crawford, offense with Hernandez, or both with Belt.
Huff is 33 years old, and had a career year last year, and hit .290 with good power. Before 2010, Huff looked like a declining player with not much left in the tank. After 2010 year, the Giants gave huff a two year contract with a team option for a third year. Huff will earn $10 per year for the length of this contract. He has been terrible this year, batting under .250 with an on base percentage around .300. The Giants are paying him too much in their mind to not play him. They should have never given him this contract knowing that he was an aging, declining player, who was coming off a fluke year. Especially when their best prospect is MLB ready and plays the same position.
There is still time for Belt to make it to the majors in time to make an impact with the club thought. Their playoff hero Cody Ross was acquired last year off waivers from the Marlins on August 22.
Their pitching staff is top notch, but their position players are completely out of whack. At catcher, they lost Buster Posey at the beginning of the season, and have been living with Eli Whiteside ever since. The Reds have two catching prospects, Devin Mesoraco in AAA and Yasmani Grandal in AA. Mesoraco is the catcher of the future, and could come up and play right now. Ramon Hernandez could be put on favors, and very easily end up with the Giants.
At first base, they are still playing Aubrey Huff. I have very little doubt that Brandon Belt could outhit hit today given the chance. Belt is also, by all accounts, an above average fielder at first base, where as Huff is a liability.
Jeff Keppinger is fine at second base, after Freddy Sanchez went down and the Bill Hall experiment failed. And at third base, Pablo Sandoval is their best offensive player right now with Beltran currently sitting out.
Shortstop has been a blackhole on both offense and defense this year. Miguel Tejada and Orlando Cabrera both don't have the range to be league average defensively anymore, and both of their on base percentages are .275 this year. Brandon Crawford has managed that with above average defense, but is now back in the minors with Belt.
In the outfield things are a mess. They basically have Carlos Beltran, and then three players for the other two spots. When healthy Carlos Beltran should be playing everyday, in one of the corner spots. When Nate Schierholtz in the field with Beltran, Schierholtz should man right with Beltran in left simply because Schierholtz is a better defender with a cannon for an arm. Andres Torres has been good defensively, but hasn't been much at the plate this year. He's the only one that they have that can play a good center field, and should be there most days. Cody Ross can play all outfield spots, but not very well. It's a mess, and Bruce Bochy will most likely continue to mix and match. I don't see them being able to bring anyone in through a waiver trade who would be significantly better than their Ross, Torres and Schierholtz.
Their offense is mostly filled with older declining players, or players who's career might peak at being a league average player. Their pitching staff can carry them for the next few years, but their offense will need an overhaul if they want to continue to contend in future years. Their minor league system doesn't have much except Belt in the upper minors leagues. They could easily upgrade at catcher, shortstop, and first base by acquiring a Ramon Hernandez or Chris Iannetta type, and promoting Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford to play everyday. The Diamondbacks have taken over first place in the NL West, and should push the Giants until the end of the season. The Giants could easily win a few more games by making these small changes that would help them or defense with Crawford, offense with Hernandez, or both with Belt.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Is it Time for La Russa to Ride Into the Sunset?
I started to think about this topic after hearing his comments regarding Jason Motte throwing inside to Ryan Braun after Albert Pujols had been hit earlier in the game about a week ago. From what I could understand from La Russa's mostly incoherent rant, it wasn't ok for the Brewers to throw inside to Pujols, but it was fine when Jason Motte threw inside twice to Braun, hitting him the second time. The two teams don't have much of a history form what I'm aware of, and when I saw the inside pitch that hit Albert, I didn't think that it was intentional.
La Russa's teams have been temperamental in recent years. Last year, the Cardinals got into a bench clearing brawl with the Reds, that was started when Brandon Phillips tapped the shinguard of catcher Yadier Molina. Phillips isn't the most popular player in the Cardinal clubhouse, but to quote Ron Burgundy, "That escalated rather quickly."
I think that the Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central on paper this year. They lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery before the season, but the bounce back season that Lance Berkman is having this season has almost made up for it, as far as Wins Above Replacement is concerned. All season long, I've been waiting for this team to flex their muscles, and start to pull away from the pack. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday have both spent time on the disabled list, and that has kept them from firing on all cylinders for parts of the year, but I still think that this team should be in first place. I think Tony is keeping them from reaching their maximum potential.
One thing that drives me crazy is when the he has the pitcher hitting eighth. As far as i know, none of their pitchers are named Ruth. He's now done this enought times that we can see that his team consistently scores fewer runs when the pitcher is hitting in the eight hole. If you're into advanced metrics, then you know that the optimum lineup is arranged in descending order with the player with the highest on base percentage batting first, and the lowest OBP batting last. There isn't going to be a Billy Beane-esque revelation that shows that hitting the pitcher eighth helps you win, just stop doing it Tony.
I also don't think that Tony uses his bullpen pitchers very well. Last night for example, the Cardinals were playing the Brewers again, and La Russa sent Octavio Dotel out to pitch the 10th inning, after coming in to get the third out of the ninth. The only problem with this was the fact that two of the first three hitters Dotel was to face were Nyger Morgan and Prince Fielder, both left handed hitters. Dotel is what I consider a righty specialist. Much like what I wrote about Joe Smith earlier this week, Dotel should never be allowed to face a left handed hitter. Here are the OPS for right handed and left handed batters against Dotel over the past three years:
2011 2010 2009
Right Handed: .413 .576 .652
Left Handed: .938 .933 1.000
Predictably, Nyger Morgan got a hit, Ryan Braun made an out, and Prince Fielder got a hit, which allowed Morgan to advance to third with one out. Casey McGehee then got a hit to score a run, followed by a Yuniesky Betancourt sac fly. John Axford then came in for the bottom of the inning with a two run lead to shut the door and give the Brewers the win.
I know some people say that La Russa is a good bullpen manager, but those are also the people who agree with Tony when he said that Corey Patterson (and his career .291 OBP) has the talent to be a good leadoff hitter. Corey Patterson should be banished to Class-AAA, and never allowed to return. Seriously, Corey Patterson?
The next thing is the whole Colby Rasmus situation. We may never know exactly what happened between Tony and Colby, but it wasn't good. Rasmus was a former first round pick, and was twice rated as a top 5 prospect before making it to the majors. He put up great minor league numbers during the four years he played there before being called up, even though he was almost always young for the level he was playing in. Rasmus had a good 2010 as a 23 year old, but was off to a bad start in his 94 games this year with the Cardinals. Rasmus is still young enough to develop into a perennial allstar, but St. Louis had to trade his because of the differing hitting philosophies between La Russa, Colby, and Colby's dad aparently.
All the Cardinals got for Rasmus when they traded for his was Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Corey Patterson, and players to be named later or cash. A lot of quantity, but not much quality. We've seen Jackson with five other teams, who were all willing to part with him, and he his career ERA of 4.55. Dotel is a situational reliever who isn't long for this league at age 37. Marc Rzepczynski is still young, and some think that he could be a back end left handed starter down the road. Corey Patterson would have been more helpful to the Cardinals if he would have gotten stopped and detained while going through customs on his trip over the border. St. Louis is obviously in "win now" mode with Albert Pujols and to a lesser extend Lance Berkman being free agents at the end of the season. Even with that considered, it looks like Toronto made out like kings getting a piece like Rasmus who could blossom into a franchise player.
After the trade, the Cardinals are now playing Jon Jay and Corey Patterson in center. Jay is playing a little over his head right now. He's not good enough defensively to be a true center fielder, and I think he will get exposed if the Cardinals continue to give him regular playing time. My thoughts on Corey Patterson are well known.
The shelf life for the coaches in the Major Leagues is fairly short, and La Russa has been with the Cardinals for for 16 seasons. As an alum of The Ohio State University, i've seen my fair share of Joe Paterno. La Russa is starting to give me the feeling that I get from Paterno, which is a "deer in the headlights," "I'm too old for this," type of feeling. He's accomplished a lot in St. Louis, including winning the World Series in 2006.
Around the League:
For the second straight night, the Double-A Astros got out to a big lead on the Diamondbacks. This time however the Diamondbacks game back to win the game, mostly on the back of Justin Upton, who went three for five with a double and a homerun. Upton has always been an MVP-in-waiting, but if the Diamondbacks manage to beat the Giants out for the NL West pennant, I wouldn't be surprised it Upton got some major MVP consideration.
The Indians defeated the Tigers tonight in 14 innings on a walkoff hit by pitch. Both starters went only two innings because of a two hour rain delay. Going into this series, I thought that the Indians needed to take the first two games of this series with Masterson and Jimenez on the mound because the series finale will put Justin Verlander up against Fausto Carmona. Carmona has been better as of late, but is still having a down year. The Indians still have three more series against the Tigers this year, including the final series of the year. This has the makings of a great race that could go down to the final day. The White Sox are only one game behind the Tribe, and now four games behind the Tigers, and certainly have the talent to win the division if they can manage to get anything out of Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, and whoever they're throwing out to play third base.
James Shields shutout the Royals 4-0 in a game that only took an hour and fifty-three minutes. If i went to that game I'd feel like I didn't get my moneys worth. It's like when you're bowling and get a strike, I feel like I got ripped off because I want to throw again.
La Russa's teams have been temperamental in recent years. Last year, the Cardinals got into a bench clearing brawl with the Reds, that was started when Brandon Phillips tapped the shinguard of catcher Yadier Molina. Phillips isn't the most popular player in the Cardinal clubhouse, but to quote Ron Burgundy, "That escalated rather quickly."
I think that the Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central on paper this year. They lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery before the season, but the bounce back season that Lance Berkman is having this season has almost made up for it, as far as Wins Above Replacement is concerned. All season long, I've been waiting for this team to flex their muscles, and start to pull away from the pack. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday have both spent time on the disabled list, and that has kept them from firing on all cylinders for parts of the year, but I still think that this team should be in first place. I think Tony is keeping them from reaching their maximum potential.
One thing that drives me crazy is when the he has the pitcher hitting eighth. As far as i know, none of their pitchers are named Ruth. He's now done this enought times that we can see that his team consistently scores fewer runs when the pitcher is hitting in the eight hole. If you're into advanced metrics, then you know that the optimum lineup is arranged in descending order with the player with the highest on base percentage batting first, and the lowest OBP batting last. There isn't going to be a Billy Beane-esque revelation that shows that hitting the pitcher eighth helps you win, just stop doing it Tony.
I also don't think that Tony uses his bullpen pitchers very well. Last night for example, the Cardinals were playing the Brewers again, and La Russa sent Octavio Dotel out to pitch the 10th inning, after coming in to get the third out of the ninth. The only problem with this was the fact that two of the first three hitters Dotel was to face were Nyger Morgan and Prince Fielder, both left handed hitters. Dotel is what I consider a righty specialist. Much like what I wrote about Joe Smith earlier this week, Dotel should never be allowed to face a left handed hitter. Here are the OPS for right handed and left handed batters against Dotel over the past three years:
2011 2010 2009
Right Handed: .413 .576 .652
Left Handed: .938 .933 1.000
Predictably, Nyger Morgan got a hit, Ryan Braun made an out, and Prince Fielder got a hit, which allowed Morgan to advance to third with one out. Casey McGehee then got a hit to score a run, followed by a Yuniesky Betancourt sac fly. John Axford then came in for the bottom of the inning with a two run lead to shut the door and give the Brewers the win.
I know some people say that La Russa is a good bullpen manager, but those are also the people who agree with Tony when he said that Corey Patterson (and his career .291 OBP) has the talent to be a good leadoff hitter. Corey Patterson should be banished to Class-AAA, and never allowed to return. Seriously, Corey Patterson?
The next thing is the whole Colby Rasmus situation. We may never know exactly what happened between Tony and Colby, but it wasn't good. Rasmus was a former first round pick, and was twice rated as a top 5 prospect before making it to the majors. He put up great minor league numbers during the four years he played there before being called up, even though he was almost always young for the level he was playing in. Rasmus had a good 2010 as a 23 year old, but was off to a bad start in his 94 games this year with the Cardinals. Rasmus is still young enough to develop into a perennial allstar, but St. Louis had to trade his because of the differing hitting philosophies between La Russa, Colby, and Colby's dad aparently.
All the Cardinals got for Rasmus when they traded for his was Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Corey Patterson, and players to be named later or cash. A lot of quantity, but not much quality. We've seen Jackson with five other teams, who were all willing to part with him, and he his career ERA of 4.55. Dotel is a situational reliever who isn't long for this league at age 37. Marc Rzepczynski is still young, and some think that he could be a back end left handed starter down the road. Corey Patterson would have been more helpful to the Cardinals if he would have gotten stopped and detained while going through customs on his trip over the border. St. Louis is obviously in "win now" mode with Albert Pujols and to a lesser extend Lance Berkman being free agents at the end of the season. Even with that considered, it looks like Toronto made out like kings getting a piece like Rasmus who could blossom into a franchise player.
After the trade, the Cardinals are now playing Jon Jay and Corey Patterson in center. Jay is playing a little over his head right now. He's not good enough defensively to be a true center fielder, and I think he will get exposed if the Cardinals continue to give him regular playing time. My thoughts on Corey Patterson are well known.
The shelf life for the coaches in the Major Leagues is fairly short, and La Russa has been with the Cardinals for for 16 seasons. As an alum of The Ohio State University, i've seen my fair share of Joe Paterno. La Russa is starting to give me the feeling that I get from Paterno, which is a "deer in the headlights," "I'm too old for this," type of feeling. He's accomplished a lot in St. Louis, including winning the World Series in 2006.
Around the League:
For the second straight night, the Double-A Astros got out to a big lead on the Diamondbacks. This time however the Diamondbacks game back to win the game, mostly on the back of Justin Upton, who went three for five with a double and a homerun. Upton has always been an MVP-in-waiting, but if the Diamondbacks manage to beat the Giants out for the NL West pennant, I wouldn't be surprised it Upton got some major MVP consideration.
The Indians defeated the Tigers tonight in 14 innings on a walkoff hit by pitch. Both starters went only two innings because of a two hour rain delay. Going into this series, I thought that the Indians needed to take the first two games of this series with Masterson and Jimenez on the mound because the series finale will put Justin Verlander up against Fausto Carmona. Carmona has been better as of late, but is still having a down year. The Indians still have three more series against the Tigers this year, including the final series of the year. This has the makings of a great race that could go down to the final day. The White Sox are only one game behind the Tribe, and now four games behind the Tigers, and certainly have the talent to win the division if they can manage to get anything out of Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, and whoever they're throwing out to play third base.
James Shields shutout the Royals 4-0 in a game that only took an hour and fifty-three minutes. If i went to that game I'd feel like I didn't get my moneys worth. It's like when you're bowling and get a strike, I feel like I got ripped off because I want to throw again.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Indians Bullpen
For the most part, I think that Manny Acta does a good job at managing the Indians bullpen, but there are a few things that I think could be better. I don't think any managers in the big leagues use their bullpens optimally though, because of the same rule. I don't think it takes your best relief pitcher to hold a three run lead for one inning, but oh well. Currently the Indians roster includes 7 relievers. They are Chad Durbin, Frank Herrmann, Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith.
Chad Durbin is 33 years old, and at his best was an average middle reliever. Frank Herrmann is 27 years old, and is currently pitching to his skill level, which isn't special. Both of these guys should be used in mop up duty, and neither of them should have a major impact on the outcome of the game.
Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp are the two lefties that come out of the Tribe pen. Perez should be a lefty specialist coming out of the pen. Lefties have a slightly lower OPS against Perez then Sipp, but righties have a significantly higher OPS against against Perez than Sipp. Sipp should be used as our full inning guy, when the opposing team may have a few lefties coming up, or Acta wants to turn a switch hitter around. Perez should be the guy that comes in to face the Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer type players, and then get him out of there. Acta could do a better job of using his lefties. Righties have 93 plate appearances against Perez and 110 against Perez. That stats dictate that there should be a much greater split between these numbers.
Joe Smith is the guy Manny is currently using in the wrong capacity. I think Smith is a decent sixth or seventh inning option, who should cater strictly to right handed batters. But Acta has been using him in high leverage situations recently, and letting him pitch to both right and left handed batters. Smith career numbers against lefties aren't pretty, they have an OPS of above .800 against Smith. This year however he has been good against them, but in a small sample size, with a batting average on balls in play of .147. Lefties have a career BABIP of .337, which indicates regression will come at some point because that number is highly unsustainable. Smith also has a career walk rate of 4.15 BB/9. With these numbers, I think Smith would be best used in the middle innings, a lineup of right handed hitters, with maybe one lefty. If by the time in the inning that the lefty comes up, if there's no one on, it'd be ok to let Smith pitch to him, but I'd be very hesitant to let Smith Pitch to a lefty with runners on base. I also think that Smith should be used to start an inning only. A guy with a high walk rate should only be used to start an inning, because coming in during the middle of the inning there's a high likelihood that he will compound the problem.
If Acta wants a righty to come in during the middle of a high leverage inning, Vinnie Pestano is the only choice who doesn't carry the "closer" label. Pestano in a power righty with a high strikeout rate, and has been the best reliever in out bullpen this year by a wide margin. H currently holds an ERA of 2.95, and has been somewhat unlucky, sporting a 2.37 xFIP. Pestano should be the first right hander Acta goes to high leverage situation.
Chris Perez in the current closer for the tribe. I think that the "closer" label and the save statistic are the worst thing for a manager when trying to utilize a bullpen. Logic says that your closer should be your best relief pitcher. But if you're leading a game going into the eighth inning, and the opposing team has their 3-4-5 hitters coming up, shouldn't that inning be the one when a manager uses their best reliever? Assuming he let one batter on, the next inning would be 7-8-9 hitters. I also don't think that it's necessary to use your closer in the ninth inning when your winning by three runs. A position player could come in and get three outs before giving up three runs.
With that said, I don't think Perez is as good as should be. This year, Perez's walk rate is slightly higher than last year, while his strikeout rate has plummeted from 8.7 to 5.8 K/9. Seriously, 5.8 K/9? That's terrible. He's gotten lucky this year with his BABIP and his strand rate. His ERA should be about a run higher than it currently is. I don't know what's wrong with him, but something clearly isn't right with him.
The Indians bullpen has been good this year, and should currently be laid out like this:
Mop-up Duty/Middle Relief - Chad Durbin and Frank Herrmann
Lefty Specialist - Rafael Perez
Righty Specialist - Joe Smith
Lefty Setup Man - Tony Sipp
Righty Setup Man - Vinnie Pestano
Closer - Chris Perez
With the addition of Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians have shown that they believe that they can win this year, and for the coming two seasons. The bullpen is young enough to stay mostly intact for those years. I think that they need one more impact right hander. They could get this from two spots in their pen, either Herrmann (only 27) could develop into this player, or Durbin's spot could the guy. Durbin is currently 33, and on a one year deal. Assuming the Indians will let him go, they could replace him with an impact righty either through free agency, or from the minor leagues. This addition would solidify the Indians pen for the next few years, before the lose Choo and Asdrubal after 2013, and would most likely have to blow up the bullpen anyway.
Chad Durbin is 33 years old, and at his best was an average middle reliever. Frank Herrmann is 27 years old, and is currently pitching to his skill level, which isn't special. Both of these guys should be used in mop up duty, and neither of them should have a major impact on the outcome of the game.
Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp are the two lefties that come out of the Tribe pen. Perez should be a lefty specialist coming out of the pen. Lefties have a slightly lower OPS against Perez then Sipp, but righties have a significantly higher OPS against against Perez than Sipp. Sipp should be used as our full inning guy, when the opposing team may have a few lefties coming up, or Acta wants to turn a switch hitter around. Perez should be the guy that comes in to face the Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer type players, and then get him out of there. Acta could do a better job of using his lefties. Righties have 93 plate appearances against Perez and 110 against Perez. That stats dictate that there should be a much greater split between these numbers.
Joe Smith is the guy Manny is currently using in the wrong capacity. I think Smith is a decent sixth or seventh inning option, who should cater strictly to right handed batters. But Acta has been using him in high leverage situations recently, and letting him pitch to both right and left handed batters. Smith career numbers against lefties aren't pretty, they have an OPS of above .800 against Smith. This year however he has been good against them, but in a small sample size, with a batting average on balls in play of .147. Lefties have a career BABIP of .337, which indicates regression will come at some point because that number is highly unsustainable. Smith also has a career walk rate of 4.15 BB/9. With these numbers, I think Smith would be best used in the middle innings, a lineup of right handed hitters, with maybe one lefty. If by the time in the inning that the lefty comes up, if there's no one on, it'd be ok to let Smith pitch to him, but I'd be very hesitant to let Smith Pitch to a lefty with runners on base. I also think that Smith should be used to start an inning only. A guy with a high walk rate should only be used to start an inning, because coming in during the middle of the inning there's a high likelihood that he will compound the problem.
If Acta wants a righty to come in during the middle of a high leverage inning, Vinnie Pestano is the only choice who doesn't carry the "closer" label. Pestano in a power righty with a high strikeout rate, and has been the best reliever in out bullpen this year by a wide margin. H currently holds an ERA of 2.95, and has been somewhat unlucky, sporting a 2.37 xFIP. Pestano should be the first right hander Acta goes to high leverage situation.
Chris Perez in the current closer for the tribe. I think that the "closer" label and the save statistic are the worst thing for a manager when trying to utilize a bullpen. Logic says that your closer should be your best relief pitcher. But if you're leading a game going into the eighth inning, and the opposing team has their 3-4-5 hitters coming up, shouldn't that inning be the one when a manager uses their best reliever? Assuming he let one batter on, the next inning would be 7-8-9 hitters. I also don't think that it's necessary to use your closer in the ninth inning when your winning by three runs. A position player could come in and get three outs before giving up three runs.
With that said, I don't think Perez is as good as should be. This year, Perez's walk rate is slightly higher than last year, while his strikeout rate has plummeted from 8.7 to 5.8 K/9. Seriously, 5.8 K/9? That's terrible. He's gotten lucky this year with his BABIP and his strand rate. His ERA should be about a run higher than it currently is. I don't know what's wrong with him, but something clearly isn't right with him.
The Indians bullpen has been good this year, and should currently be laid out like this:
Mop-up Duty/Middle Relief - Chad Durbin and Frank Herrmann
Lefty Specialist - Rafael Perez
Righty Specialist - Joe Smith
Lefty Setup Man - Tony Sipp
Righty Setup Man - Vinnie Pestano
Closer - Chris Perez
With the addition of Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians have shown that they believe that they can win this year, and for the coming two seasons. The bullpen is young enough to stay mostly intact for those years. I think that they need one more impact right hander. They could get this from two spots in their pen, either Herrmann (only 27) could develop into this player, or Durbin's spot could the guy. Durbin is currently 33, and on a one year deal. Assuming the Indians will let him go, they could replace him with an impact righty either through free agency, or from the minor leagues. This addition would solidify the Indians pen for the next few years, before the lose Choo and Asdrubal after 2013, and would most likely have to blow up the bullpen anyway.
Saturday, August 6, 2011
Why I Don't Watch Soccer
The only time I watch soccer is during the World Cup. I think that there are a lot of people like that who only care about soccer for two weeks a summer every four years. The cool thing about soccer is that they run around for 45 mintues with no commercials, take a 15 minute break, then run around for another 45 mintues with no commercials. I turned on the MLS today, and then changed the channel five minutes later. In those five minutes, I figured out why the MLS gets so few viewers.
1. The announcer. I feel like soccer is the best when there is an announcer that has a British accent, and I can't really understand a word he's saying. It's like golf, tennis, and darts in that respect. Have you ever seen darts on ESPN? It doesn't need an announcer, it's pretty self explanatory, but there's always a British guy screaming out the scores for the math-illiterate. Makes it way better.
2. I have no idea what team is what color. Their uniforms have a bunch of advertisements on them, but no where does it say what team they are. This is a major problem for me when watching the MLS. This is why international soccer is so much better. I can figure out which country the U.S. is, and then i have someone to root for. Which leads to the next thing.
3. Flags. If I'm going to be a soccer fan, I want to be one of the annoying ones, waving a flag around, and screaming that "Ole" song for two straight hours. Going full hooligan, but playing it off as patriotism is the only way to go. Cities don't have flags (to the best of my knowledge), so this poses a small problem.
4. The Crowd. The crowd at an MLS game is quiet. I didn't get to see a goal, I'm assuming that they make noise when that happens. Also, America has these dumb rules where you can't light off fire works or shoot off flair guns in the stands, and our culture really frowns on rioting. So we're at a real disadvantage compared to some other countries.
5. The LeBron-James-ness of the athletes. When there's a foul in soccer, the guilty immediately puts his hands up in the air, and make that "I didn't do it" face. Have you ever seen LeBron foul people, same thing? Just kidding, LeBron doesn't foul people.
International soccer is great. But the MLS has certain limitations that won't ever let it be as popular as the International games, unless cities get flags, write their name on their uniforms, get a British announcer, and let people with flair guns into the stands. Then they might have a fighting chance.
1. The announcer. I feel like soccer is the best when there is an announcer that has a British accent, and I can't really understand a word he's saying. It's like golf, tennis, and darts in that respect. Have you ever seen darts on ESPN? It doesn't need an announcer, it's pretty self explanatory, but there's always a British guy screaming out the scores for the math-illiterate. Makes it way better.
2. I have no idea what team is what color. Their uniforms have a bunch of advertisements on them, but no where does it say what team they are. This is a major problem for me when watching the MLS. This is why international soccer is so much better. I can figure out which country the U.S. is, and then i have someone to root for. Which leads to the next thing.
3. Flags. If I'm going to be a soccer fan, I want to be one of the annoying ones, waving a flag around, and screaming that "Ole" song for two straight hours. Going full hooligan, but playing it off as patriotism is the only way to go. Cities don't have flags (to the best of my knowledge), so this poses a small problem.
4. The Crowd. The crowd at an MLS game is quiet. I didn't get to see a goal, I'm assuming that they make noise when that happens. Also, America has these dumb rules where you can't light off fire works or shoot off flair guns in the stands, and our culture really frowns on rioting. So we're at a real disadvantage compared to some other countries.
5. The LeBron-James-ness of the athletes. When there's a foul in soccer, the guilty immediately puts his hands up in the air, and make that "I didn't do it" face. Have you ever seen LeBron foul people, same thing? Just kidding, LeBron doesn't foul people.
International soccer is great. But the MLS has certain limitations that won't ever let it be as popular as the International games, unless cities get flags, write their name on their uniforms, get a British announcer, and let people with flair guns into the stands. Then they might have a fighting chance.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Masterson Coming Into His Own
The Indians a game 7-3 tonight because of a strong effort by Justin Masterson. Masterson went six innings and gave up three runs. After giving up two runs in the first inning, he looked overpowering from innings two through five (including four strikeouts in the second). He began to labor in the sixth inning with a pitch count over 100, but got through it, and turned it over to the bullpen. On offense, the Indians took advantage of the opportunities that they were given, and managed to string together hits to score their runs.
Erik Bedard looked sharp, but seemed to wear down quickly, as he is still recovering from a knee injury. Bedard could be a great deadline pickup for boston if he pitches to his ability down the stretch, especially with the updated prognosis of clay buchholz. He has the ability to shutdown an offense and put up high strikeout totals with a mix of a two seem fastballs, curveballs, changeups, and the occasional cutter.
If the Indians make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see who starts game one of a playoff series between Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez. The Tribe got Ubaldo to be a lot of the rotation guy, but Masterson has clearly emerged as the teams ace. Assuming that two teams from the AL East make the playoffs, the Indians will either play the Yankees of the red sox. Including tonight, Masterson has great numbers against both teams, with a combined 2.37 ERA in 57 innings combined against the two teams in his career. He's been even better this year, with eight shutout innings in his only appearance, and now two strong outings against the red sox.
Masterson's maturation has been phenomenal this year. Dating back to college, a lot of people thought Masterson would end up in the bullpen because of his low arm slot, and lack of a changeup or other pitch to neutralize his platoon split (see previous post for information about platoon split description). Before this year, he had about a year and a half with the Tribe. In this time he has obliterated righties (Career OPS below .600), and the only question about him was if he would be able to limit the damage from lefties. He has done a great job of this in 2011. This year, his OPS against lefties is almost 100 points lower than previously in his career, with the same batting average on balls in play.
The differnce in Masterson between this year and previous years is his repertoire. He has always been a sinker/slider pitcher, using those two pitches the majority of the time to wipe out right handed hitters. The difference this year, is that he has essentially scrapped his changeup for a hard four seem fastball.
He works mostly low in the zone with his sinker around 92mph and his slider around 84. But he keeps hitters honest by blowing their doors off with his four seemer high in the zone at 96. This pitch changes the hitters eye level, and is significantly faster than anything else that he shows them. Everything for Masterson works off of his sinker, and instead of keeping hitters off balance by subtracting speed with his changeup, he's doing it by adding speed with his newly found four seem fastball.
Masterson is getting lucky with regard to his suppressed homerun rate, but his increased control (walking 1.2 less batters per nine innings than a year ago), along with his ability to hold left handers in check, has resulted in him becoming what the Indians thought Fausto Carmona would become. A groundball pitcher who had a passable strikeout rate who would generate a lot of groundballs, with a low walk total, and keeping the ball in the park. Masterson's ability to get a lot of groundballs, without walking many batters, while striking out over 7 batters per nine innings, is a recipe for success that should keep him at the top of the Indians rotation for the rest of this year, and for years to come.
Erik Bedard looked sharp, but seemed to wear down quickly, as he is still recovering from a knee injury. Bedard could be a great deadline pickup for boston if he pitches to his ability down the stretch, especially with the updated prognosis of clay buchholz. He has the ability to shutdown an offense and put up high strikeout totals with a mix of a two seem fastballs, curveballs, changeups, and the occasional cutter.
If the Indians make the playoffs, it will be interesting to see who starts game one of a playoff series between Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez. The Tribe got Ubaldo to be a lot of the rotation guy, but Masterson has clearly emerged as the teams ace. Assuming that two teams from the AL East make the playoffs, the Indians will either play the Yankees of the red sox. Including tonight, Masterson has great numbers against both teams, with a combined 2.37 ERA in 57 innings combined against the two teams in his career. He's been even better this year, with eight shutout innings in his only appearance, and now two strong outings against the red sox.
Masterson's maturation has been phenomenal this year. Dating back to college, a lot of people thought Masterson would end up in the bullpen because of his low arm slot, and lack of a changeup or other pitch to neutralize his platoon split (see previous post for information about platoon split description). Before this year, he had about a year and a half with the Tribe. In this time he has obliterated righties (Career OPS below .600), and the only question about him was if he would be able to limit the damage from lefties. He has done a great job of this in 2011. This year, his OPS against lefties is almost 100 points lower than previously in his career, with the same batting average on balls in play.
The differnce in Masterson between this year and previous years is his repertoire. He has always been a sinker/slider pitcher, using those two pitches the majority of the time to wipe out right handed hitters. The difference this year, is that he has essentially scrapped his changeup for a hard four seem fastball.
He works mostly low in the zone with his sinker around 92mph and his slider around 84. But he keeps hitters honest by blowing their doors off with his four seemer high in the zone at 96. This pitch changes the hitters eye level, and is significantly faster than anything else that he shows them. Everything for Masterson works off of his sinker, and instead of keeping hitters off balance by subtracting speed with his changeup, he's doing it by adding speed with his newly found four seem fastball.
Masterson is getting lucky with regard to his suppressed homerun rate, but his increased control (walking 1.2 less batters per nine innings than a year ago), along with his ability to hold left handers in check, has resulted in him becoming what the Indians thought Fausto Carmona would become. A groundball pitcher who had a passable strikeout rate who would generate a lot of groundballs, with a low walk total, and keeping the ball in the park. Masterson's ability to get a lot of groundballs, without walking many batters, while striking out over 7 batters per nine innings, is a recipe for success that should keep him at the top of the Indians rotation for the rest of this year, and for years to come.
Platoon Split Issue, and How to Deal with It
This article is a preemptive strike for the next one.
The platoon split is a known issue in the baseball world that deals with right handed batters(RHB) hacing an advantage against left handed pitchers(LHP), and left handed batters(LHB) having an advantage against right handed pitchers(RPH). There are two reasons for this. The first is because the batters get a better view of the ball from the time it's released to when it gets to the plate. The second is because when RHP throws a breaking ball to a LHB (and vice versa), the ball breaks towards the batter, and makes it easier for the batter to get the ball on the bat. The only breaking ball exception in the screwball, which no one in the big league throws anymore. A ball with only vertical displacement, like a 12-6 curve (which breaks straight down like from 12 to 6 on a clock, as opposed to a 11-5 or 2-8), or a ball that moves away from a batter, like a changeup (which typically tails away to the arm side of the pitcher), are used to neutralize the platoon split. The cutter can also be used to neutralize a platoon split, but in a totally different way. The cutter is a fastball that moves across the pitchers body from arm side to glove side [of the pitcher as he stands on the mound facing the plate] to the arm side. The pitch eliminates platoon splits because by looking like a fastball down the middle, but then "cuts" to the inner half of the plate before the hitter can get around and pull the ball, resulting in broken bats and poor contact.
Ranting About Cleveland
So, I wasn't to enamored with the Indians acquisition of Ubaldo Jiminez last weekend, and now it's easier to tell why. As today begins, the Indians currently sit at 54-54. They are currently .500, with a game tonight, and have the chance to be below .500 before Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound. This is not totally the Indians fault, because with the deal nearly finalized, Jim Tracy has Ubaldo pitch one inning last Friday. Esmil Rogers was ready before the game started, but Tracy sent an uninspired Jimenez out there to throw 40 pitches, give up two runs, and risked injury, which would have nullified the deal.
In other news, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said recently that the two big pieces in the trade could be in the big league rotation by the end of the year. White when healthy, and Pomeranz when the rosters expand most likely.
Today's matinee game on MLB network was a thriller between the Rays and Jays. I missed the beginning of the game but caught the final 4 innings. I have two thoughts about the game:
1. Has anyone besides Brendan Ryan had a weaker swing that resulted in a triple than B.J. Upton in that final inning?
2. Desmond Jennings is really good.
In other news, Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd said recently that the two big pieces in the trade could be in the big league rotation by the end of the year. White when healthy, and Pomeranz when the rosters expand most likely.
Today's matinee game on MLB network was a thriller between the Rays and Jays. I missed the beginning of the game but caught the final 4 innings. I have two thoughts about the game:
1. Has anyone besides Brendan Ryan had a weaker swing that resulted in a triple than B.J. Upton in that final inning?
2. Desmond Jennings is really good.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
My All-Underrated Team
When looking at the Diamonbacks yesterday, I said that Ian Kennedy was under appreciated. I decided to look through some numbers and put together a team of players who i feel aren't getting enough recognition for the years that they are having. I started to compile this list by going to fangraphs.com, and sort by WAR. I thought that this was the best starting point because it includes offense, defense, and baserunning. I then checked wOBA for offensive players, because i feel someone having a good offensive season who isn't recognized would fit on this list. wOBA is weighted on base average, and is a rate stat the combines overall offensive production and is meant to be viewed on the same scale of on base percentage. So here's the team I came up with,
Catcher - Carlos Santana - Slight homer pick, but I think Santana gets overlooked because of the high expectations of being a top prospect, but only batting .230. When called up, he was immediately tasked with handling a young pitching staff, and hitting in the middle of the order for an offensively challenged team. He is still hitting for power, and has an OBP of .350, and while his defense hasn't been great, is has been better than expected.
First Base - Todd Helton - At age 37, Helton isn't putting up monstrous power numbers anymore, but it still getting on base at nearly a .400 clip. He still plays great defense, and when the Rockies decided to put the struggling Carlos Gonzalez in the leadoff spot, Helton took over the third spot in the order. After a down year last season, he has come back in 2011 and showed he's not done yet, even if the Rockies as a whole aren't living up to expectations.
Second Base - Ben Zobrist - The definition of a utility man, Zobrist has the ability to play all over the field. This year however, Zobrist has spent the majority of his time at second due to the struggles of Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac. Zobrist broke out two years ago, but then fell off last year, leading a lot of people to reguard him as a one year wonder. Zobrist however is back this year, getting on base at a .375 clip with a slugging percentage of.500.
Third Base - Chase Headley - A good prospect while coming up, Headley hasn't enjoyed his first few years in Petco Park. This year he has flown under the radar in his age 27 season. He's not hitting for power, but he has been getting on base all year. Going through a slight slump right now, his OBP is down from around .400 to .380 at this point. The Padres moved him around a little when he was younger, but he's now entrenched at third base, and playing average defense.
Shortstop - Jhonny Peralta - Largely written in the offseason, Peralta has been great this year, but i don't think people realize how great. His OPS is .886, the highest it's ever been, including his breakout season in 2005. he's getting on base, and hitting for power, and doing a nice job hitting behind Cabrera, Martinez, and Boesch. Fangraphs also credits Perlata with being an above average defender, which is a pleasant surprise for anyone interested in that sort of thing.
Left Field - Brennan Boesch - Hey, Brennan Boesch, we were just talking about you. I think a lot of people who are looking at Boesch's 2010, and see the second half of 2010 and are weary of the Tiger's left fielder. But as lucky as Boesch got in the first half last year, he was equally unlucky in the second half. I think Boesch has shown what he is in 2011, which is a near .290 hitter who can take a walk, and put a charge behind the ball. There will be ups and downs, but he is still young, and that is to be expected. He leaves something to be desired in the field, but Detriot has proved that they're not really concerned with that sort of thing.
Center Field - Cameron Maybin - Wow, two padres hitters? Yes. Maybin is now on his third team and is only 24 years old. After Detroit rushed him to the big leagues, and he floundered there, he and Andrew Miller were the centerpieces that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. After Florida got sick of him, he was jettisoned to San Diego. Maybin is now blossoming into a speedy leadoff hitter who can hit for a serviceable average. His BABIP is a little high, but he has enough speed that a slightly inflated BABIP could be sustained. His primary asset at this point is his defense, which has been great while paroling the spacious outfield of Petco Park.
Right Field - Michael Cuddyer - Always overlooked, I view Cuddyer as the glue that holds the Twins together. As an Indians fan, I've seen a fair amount of Cuddyer over the years, and while not spectacular, he seems to do everything right. This year, Cuddyer has filled in at first for Morneau, second for Niskioka, but spends the most of his time in right field. The major change I've noticed this year in Cuddyer's game is his increases on base percentage. His career on base percentage before this year was .342, but this year he's raised it to .370. He's not sacrificing any power either, as he's also increased his slugging percentage by about 30 points this year. He's really the poster boy for this list.
Starting Pitcher - Ian Kennedy - Amazing what getting into the NL West can do for a player. His career with the Yankees ended with an ERA above 6, but has been 3.52 during his time in Arizona. He's striking out 3.27 batters for every one that he walks, but isn't getting as many groundballs as I would like to see for a pitcher in Chase field, but with a WHIP of only 1.107, he's not allowing a lot of baserunners.
Starting Pitcher - Chris Narveson - This choice is more about the value he's bringing to his team. The brewers defense is horrendous. Their two best defenders, Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks, are both out. On the left side of the infield, Betancourt and McGehee are essentially posts in the ground, and Prince Fielder isn't exactly Albert Pujols defensively. As a fifth starter, Narveson's strikeout rate is 7.44 K/9 rate helps hide the defense, and with an average defense behind him, xFIP says his era should be 3.66, almost a run lower than his ERA currently sits. Narveson will continue to be very important as the Brewers try to fend off the Cardinals in the NL central.
Starting Pitcher - Jordan Zimmermann - The soon to be shutdown Nationals pitcher has been phenomenal in his return season from Tommy John season. The Nationals view Zimmermann as being their future #2 starter behind Stephen Strasburg. Zimmermann's K/BB rate is 4.45. His WHIP has been 1.1 while keeping a BABIP which is right in line with the league average. This year he is not striking out as many batters as before the surgery, but I think that will return in coming seasons. His season is almost over, as the Nationals have recently announced that he will make only 4 more starts this year.
Releif Pitchers - Relievers are too volatile year to year to go that in depth about, but here are some relievers that are flying under the radar this year. Glen Perkins (Twins), Vinnie Pestano (Indians), Bill Bray (Reds), Sean Marshall (Cubs), and Tyler Clippard (Nationals).
Around the League:
The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants again last night and have now tied the Giants for the lead in the NL West. Through two games, the Diamondbacks have beaten the #1 and #2 starters of the Gaints in Lincecum and Cain. In the series finale this afternoon, Ryan Vogelsong takes on Arizona's new acquisition Jason Marquis. This series could prove to major swing in the NL West, especially if Arizona sweeps and goes on to win the division.
Yadier Molina went mildly insane last night night, and got kicked out of the game. I'm a Yadier Molina fan because i enjoy watching his defense. He manages to everything, while shutting down opposing baseunners. He's also not afraid to throw behind the runner after a pitch, and while the only time I think that play has worked was when Manny Ramirez got picked off first base in the 1997 World Series, I still like the play. When he ultimately gets suspended, Gerald Laird will take over the duties behind the plate. He's a capable backup, and this move shouldn't cost the Cardinals anything in the standings. However, I hope it doesn't turn into a Roberto Alomar moment for him.
Catcher - Carlos Santana - Slight homer pick, but I think Santana gets overlooked because of the high expectations of being a top prospect, but only batting .230. When called up, he was immediately tasked with handling a young pitching staff, and hitting in the middle of the order for an offensively challenged team. He is still hitting for power, and has an OBP of .350, and while his defense hasn't been great, is has been better than expected.
First Base - Todd Helton - At age 37, Helton isn't putting up monstrous power numbers anymore, but it still getting on base at nearly a .400 clip. He still plays great defense, and when the Rockies decided to put the struggling Carlos Gonzalez in the leadoff spot, Helton took over the third spot in the order. After a down year last season, he has come back in 2011 and showed he's not done yet, even if the Rockies as a whole aren't living up to expectations.
Second Base - Ben Zobrist - The definition of a utility man, Zobrist has the ability to play all over the field. This year however, Zobrist has spent the majority of his time at second due to the struggles of Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac. Zobrist broke out two years ago, but then fell off last year, leading a lot of people to reguard him as a one year wonder. Zobrist however is back this year, getting on base at a .375 clip with a slugging percentage of.500.
Third Base - Chase Headley - A good prospect while coming up, Headley hasn't enjoyed his first few years in Petco Park. This year he has flown under the radar in his age 27 season. He's not hitting for power, but he has been getting on base all year. Going through a slight slump right now, his OBP is down from around .400 to .380 at this point. The Padres moved him around a little when he was younger, but he's now entrenched at third base, and playing average defense.
Shortstop - Jhonny Peralta - Largely written in the offseason, Peralta has been great this year, but i don't think people realize how great. His OPS is .886, the highest it's ever been, including his breakout season in 2005. he's getting on base, and hitting for power, and doing a nice job hitting behind Cabrera, Martinez, and Boesch. Fangraphs also credits Perlata with being an above average defender, which is a pleasant surprise for anyone interested in that sort of thing.
Left Field - Brennan Boesch - Hey, Brennan Boesch, we were just talking about you. I think a lot of people who are looking at Boesch's 2010, and see the second half of 2010 and are weary of the Tiger's left fielder. But as lucky as Boesch got in the first half last year, he was equally unlucky in the second half. I think Boesch has shown what he is in 2011, which is a near .290 hitter who can take a walk, and put a charge behind the ball. There will be ups and downs, but he is still young, and that is to be expected. He leaves something to be desired in the field, but Detriot has proved that they're not really concerned with that sort of thing.
Center Field - Cameron Maybin - Wow, two padres hitters? Yes. Maybin is now on his third team and is only 24 years old. After Detroit rushed him to the big leagues, and he floundered there, he and Andrew Miller were the centerpieces that brought Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. After Florida got sick of him, he was jettisoned to San Diego. Maybin is now blossoming into a speedy leadoff hitter who can hit for a serviceable average. His BABIP is a little high, but he has enough speed that a slightly inflated BABIP could be sustained. His primary asset at this point is his defense, which has been great while paroling the spacious outfield of Petco Park.
Right Field - Michael Cuddyer - Always overlooked, I view Cuddyer as the glue that holds the Twins together. As an Indians fan, I've seen a fair amount of Cuddyer over the years, and while not spectacular, he seems to do everything right. This year, Cuddyer has filled in at first for Morneau, second for Niskioka, but spends the most of his time in right field. The major change I've noticed this year in Cuddyer's game is his increases on base percentage. His career on base percentage before this year was .342, but this year he's raised it to .370. He's not sacrificing any power either, as he's also increased his slugging percentage by about 30 points this year. He's really the poster boy for this list.
Starting Pitcher - Ian Kennedy - Amazing what getting into the NL West can do for a player. His career with the Yankees ended with an ERA above 6, but has been 3.52 during his time in Arizona. He's striking out 3.27 batters for every one that he walks, but isn't getting as many groundballs as I would like to see for a pitcher in Chase field, but with a WHIP of only 1.107, he's not allowing a lot of baserunners.
Starting Pitcher - Chris Narveson - This choice is more about the value he's bringing to his team. The brewers defense is horrendous. Their two best defenders, Carlos Gomez and Rickie Weeks, are both out. On the left side of the infield, Betancourt and McGehee are essentially posts in the ground, and Prince Fielder isn't exactly Albert Pujols defensively. As a fifth starter, Narveson's strikeout rate is 7.44 K/9 rate helps hide the defense, and with an average defense behind him, xFIP says his era should be 3.66, almost a run lower than his ERA currently sits. Narveson will continue to be very important as the Brewers try to fend off the Cardinals in the NL central.
Starting Pitcher - Jordan Zimmermann - The soon to be shutdown Nationals pitcher has been phenomenal in his return season from Tommy John season. The Nationals view Zimmermann as being their future #2 starter behind Stephen Strasburg. Zimmermann's K/BB rate is 4.45. His WHIP has been 1.1 while keeping a BABIP which is right in line with the league average. This year he is not striking out as many batters as before the surgery, but I think that will return in coming seasons. His season is almost over, as the Nationals have recently announced that he will make only 4 more starts this year.
Releif Pitchers - Relievers are too volatile year to year to go that in depth about, but here are some relievers that are flying under the radar this year. Glen Perkins (Twins), Vinnie Pestano (Indians), Bill Bray (Reds), Sean Marshall (Cubs), and Tyler Clippard (Nationals).
Around the League:
The Diamondbacks defeated the Giants again last night and have now tied the Giants for the lead in the NL West. Through two games, the Diamondbacks have beaten the #1 and #2 starters of the Gaints in Lincecum and Cain. In the series finale this afternoon, Ryan Vogelsong takes on Arizona's new acquisition Jason Marquis. This series could prove to major swing in the NL West, especially if Arizona sweeps and goes on to win the division.
Yadier Molina went mildly insane last night night, and got kicked out of the game. I'm a Yadier Molina fan because i enjoy watching his defense. He manages to everything, while shutting down opposing baseunners. He's also not afraid to throw behind the runner after a pitch, and while the only time I think that play has worked was when Manny Ramirez got picked off first base in the 1997 World Series, I still like the play. When he ultimately gets suspended, Gerald Laird will take over the duties behind the plate. He's a capable backup, and this move shouldn't cost the Cardinals anything in the standings. However, I hope it doesn't turn into a Roberto Alomar moment for him.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
The Game I Watched Tonight
Rangers at Tigers
Let's start with the starting pitchers. I was very underwhelmed by Colby Lewis tonight. He was using a fastball at 88-90mph, slider around 84, and changeup from 83-85. None of his pitches had enough difference in speed to get the Tigers lineup off balance. He also was getting no calls at the bottom of the zone, which was really making it difficult for him to be effective. He allowed 13 baserunners in 4 innings of work. Scherzer looked better, but pitched backwards a lot. He used his slider a lot early in the conut to get ahead, then went inside with his hard fastball in the mid 90's to get a lot of weak contact, but he only had one strikeout through his 6 innings. His control was shaky, as it tends to be, but when he needed it, he could dial his fastball up the the upper nineties to help get himself out of trouble. Through the middle and into the late innings both teams tapped into their bullpens as the Tigers held a 5-2 lead. In the top of the 8th, Joaquin Benoit came in blewup, giving up a walk and two homeruns. Who would have thought that giving Joaquin Benoit, a guy with a career 4.5 ERA a huge contract after one good year would backfire? Brennan Boesch then came up in the bottom of the 8th and hit a go ahead homerun off of Mike Adams (welcome to the AL Mike Adams). It was raining for the duration of the game, and the weather kind of embodied the feel i had for this game, sloppy.
Let's start with the starting pitchers. I was very underwhelmed by Colby Lewis tonight. He was using a fastball at 88-90mph, slider around 84, and changeup from 83-85. None of his pitches had enough difference in speed to get the Tigers lineup off balance. He also was getting no calls at the bottom of the zone, which was really making it difficult for him to be effective. He allowed 13 baserunners in 4 innings of work. Scherzer looked better, but pitched backwards a lot. He used his slider a lot early in the conut to get ahead, then went inside with his hard fastball in the mid 90's to get a lot of weak contact, but he only had one strikeout through his 6 innings. His control was shaky, as it tends to be, but when he needed it, he could dial his fastball up the the upper nineties to help get himself out of trouble. Through the middle and into the late innings both teams tapped into their bullpens as the Tigers held a 5-2 lead. In the top of the 8th, Joaquin Benoit came in blewup, giving up a walk and two homeruns. Who would have thought that giving Joaquin Benoit, a guy with a career 4.5 ERA a huge contract after one good year would backfire? Brennan Boesch then came up in the bottom of the 8th and hit a go ahead homerun off of Mike Adams (welcome to the AL Mike Adams). It was raining for the duration of the game, and the weather kind of embodied the feel i had for this game, sloppy.
The Indians were on T.V. last night, and a little about the Diamondbacks
And I actually got to see them. It was good to see the Indians hit a little bit, even if it was John Lackey (good luck with the next three years of that contract). The game included my girlfriends second favorite thing in baseball, "back to back jacks," which she only likes because it rhymes. She even refers to back to back strikeouts the same way. Josh Tomlin remained hit-able, and make me nervous as he put 10 base runners on in his 6 innings, although I do think the umpire had a tight strike zone for both teams. Vinnie Pestono looked untouchable in his inning of work, while Chris Perez continues to frighten me at the back end of games, with his current xFIP of around 5. Perez struckout two last night, without walking anyone, but his K/BB rate on the season is a meager 1.32. David huff goes tonight against josh beckett in a start that Ubaldo Jiminez could have made if Jim Tracy didn't have him throw that inning on Saturday. The Indians have a fair track record against beckett in the past, he has a 4-5 record, and an ERA of 5.
Around the League:
Arizona defeated San Francisco last night, as Ian Kennedy out dueled Matt Cain. Ian Kennedy is having a wonderful year that isn't getting much publicity. He's one of the most under appreciated players in the game this year, and along with Daniel Hudson, may be the second coming of Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, who were the second coming of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
Arizona would be an interesting team if they were to make the playoffs this year because of all the teams that are in position to make the playoffs right now, Philadelphia/Milwaukee/San Francisco/Atlanta (wildcard), Arizona has by far the best offense, while the other teams are mostly built on pitching.
The only other scary offense still in the playoff race in my opinion is St. Louis, but they continue to disappoint. I think that they are the most talented team in the central, and have the best run differential, but just can't seem to put it all together. Maybe with the bullpen upgrades they made prior to the deadline, they'll be able to win a few more close games and challenge the Brewers for the division.
The Astros won an extra inning game last night, but the immediate future for that team is not pretty. They could still trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, and 53 games left, look well on their way to 100 losses as the only need to lose 27 more.
A Little About the Browns:
As football season looms closer, I once again am curious to see what the Browns will be like. Not that I have anything resembling high expectations for a 5-11 team that is changing their defensive front from a 3-4 to a 4-3. With Holmgrem as the GM/President/Dictator of the team, I can only assume that the change to a 4-3 was coming. Following this train of thought, why did re release Shaun Rogers? We are well below the salary cap, and could use an upfield interior pass rusher as we overhaul the system. Once the dust settles from free agency and the roster begins to finalize, I'll start to write a little more about the Browns, but I still think it's too early to go in depth about them.
Around the League:
Arizona defeated San Francisco last night, as Ian Kennedy out dueled Matt Cain. Ian Kennedy is having a wonderful year that isn't getting much publicity. He's one of the most under appreciated players in the game this year, and along with Daniel Hudson, may be the second coming of Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, who were the second coming of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
Arizona would be an interesting team if they were to make the playoffs this year because of all the teams that are in position to make the playoffs right now, Philadelphia/Milwaukee/San Francisco/Atlanta (wildcard), Arizona has by far the best offense, while the other teams are mostly built on pitching.
The only other scary offense still in the playoff race in my opinion is St. Louis, but they continue to disappoint. I think that they are the most talented team in the central, and have the best run differential, but just can't seem to put it all together. Maybe with the bullpen upgrades they made prior to the deadline, they'll be able to win a few more close games and challenge the Brewers for the division.
The Astros won an extra inning game last night, but the immediate future for that team is not pretty. They could still trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, and 53 games left, look well on their way to 100 losses as the only need to lose 27 more.
A Little About the Browns:
As football season looms closer, I once again am curious to see what the Browns will be like. Not that I have anything resembling high expectations for a 5-11 team that is changing their defensive front from a 3-4 to a 4-3. With Holmgrem as the GM/President/Dictator of the team, I can only assume that the change to a 4-3 was coming. Following this train of thought, why did re release Shaun Rogers? We are well below the salary cap, and could use an upfield interior pass rusher as we overhaul the system. Once the dust settles from free agency and the roster begins to finalize, I'll start to write a little more about the Browns, but I still think it's too early to go in depth about them.
Monday, August 1, 2011
6-Man Rotation
What's a worse reason to use a 6 man rotation:
A) Chicago White Sox using a 6-man rotation because they had 6 real starting pitchers
B) Kansas City Royals going to a 6-man rotation with Kyle Davies came off the DL
C) boston red sox using a 6-man rotation instead of just cutting Andrew Miller
I can almost understand the White Sox reasoning, because atleast all of their options were major league quality, but when Andrew Miller with his 1:1 K/BB rate or Kyle Davies with his career ERA over 5.50, it makes me think that managers are just crazy. Even the White Sox could have sent a struggling John Danks down to the minors, or put him on the DL (where he eventually ended up).
So I met a person from boston a few weeks ago...
So here's the setting: I'm out with the girlfriend at a bar, and we run into some acquaintances. Most of the people we met up with were fun, but there was one girl who was from boston. Now, i kind of have a checkered past with boston, from the 2007 ALCS, to Tom Brady's faggy michigan haircut, and so on... so there's that. This girl kind of struck me the wrong way from the beginning because we were at a bar, and she was ordering glasses of wine. I was thinking, 'We're at a bar girl, PBR is on special, get with it.' Then she started talking some crazy stuff, she had a weird accent, but it sounded like this, "Clam chowda, Jacoby Ellsbury is so good, everyone loves him, crab legs."
To which i went totally Dwight Schrute and said, "False, the boston front office thought he was a cocky asshole, and that's why then signed 37 year old Mike Cameron to play center field for them, and gave him $8 million per year, only to release him a year later."
She responded with something about seafood. It was kind of late in the night and I was speaking in caps lock for most of the conversation, but i think i got my point across. A few days later, my girlfriend said, "You were really mean to that girl the other night."
I responded, "She had it coming."
Now I told you that story to tell you this story: The Indians play the red sox this week. ESPN finds this important enough to put the first game on Monday Night Baseball. I haven't seen a game since we got rid of O-Cab and aquired Fuckdome, so I will watch the game with the TV muted so I don't have to listen to the broadcasters talk about how good boston is, and how Adrian Gonzalez is the obvious MVP so far because batting average and RBIs are the most important stats ever. Now, people that are enlightened, like myself, can find true value in other metrics. Let's take wins-above-replacement (WAR), a stat that combines a player's offensive and defensive contributions as compared to a replacement level player, who is average defensively, and below average offensively. According to WAR, Gonzalez is the third best player on the red sox, behind Ellsbury and Pedroia, and all trail the immortal Jose Bautista.
The Diamondbacks play the Giants this week, in San Francisco this week. It should be a good series, as Arizona recently closed the gap to two games behind the Giants. Great pitching meets the red hot Justin Upton.
Other Things That Are On My Mind:
I saw the movie "Kill the Irishman" the other day, and thought it was pretty good. The beginning of the movie reminded me very much of season 2 of "The Wire", which centers around of a bunch of blue collar dock workers, except it is set in 1970's Cleveland and is based on a true story.
To which i went totally Dwight Schrute and said, "False, the boston front office thought he was a cocky asshole, and that's why then signed 37 year old Mike Cameron to play center field for them, and gave him $8 million per year, only to release him a year later."
She responded with something about seafood. It was kind of late in the night and I was speaking in caps lock for most of the conversation, but i think i got my point across. A few days later, my girlfriend said, "You were really mean to that girl the other night."
I responded, "She had it coming."
Now I told you that story to tell you this story: The Indians play the red sox this week. ESPN finds this important enough to put the first game on Monday Night Baseball. I haven't seen a game since we got rid of O-Cab and aquired Fuckdome, so I will watch the game with the TV muted so I don't have to listen to the broadcasters talk about how good boston is, and how Adrian Gonzalez is the obvious MVP so far because batting average and RBIs are the most important stats ever. Now, people that are enlightened, like myself, can find true value in other metrics. Let's take wins-above-replacement (WAR), a stat that combines a player's offensive and defensive contributions as compared to a replacement level player, who is average defensively, and below average offensively. According to WAR, Gonzalez is the third best player on the red sox, behind Ellsbury and Pedroia, and all trail the immortal Jose Bautista.
The Diamondbacks play the Giants this week, in San Francisco this week. It should be a good series, as Arizona recently closed the gap to two games behind the Giants. Great pitching meets the red hot Justin Upton.
Other Things That Are On My Mind:
I saw the movie "Kill the Irishman" the other day, and thought it was pretty good. The beginning of the movie reminded me very much of season 2 of "The Wire", which centers around of a bunch of blue collar dock workers, except it is set in 1970's Cleveland and is based on a true story.
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