Behind The Numbers: Johnny Cueto

This year looks to be a major turning point for Johnny Cueto. In spring training, it wasn't clear if Cueto would even be able to pitch this year due to an arm injury. Thankfully for Cueto and the Reds, the injury wasn't as serious as originally thought, and Cueto was cleared to pitch in early May.

He hit the ground running, and has made 20 starts since with a 9-5 record, a 2.03 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He's exceeded all expectations that the Reds could have had before the season. He looks to be emerging as the ace of the Reds staff, and he's managing to do it with a major drop in his strikeout rate.

A pitcher can control three primary aspects that will dictate his success. He can control his strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball rate. Once the ball is put into play, it is up to the defense behind him to convert it into an out. A pitcher that does one of those things can survive in the majors. Josh Tomlin is a good example of this, he doesn't strikeout anyone, and doesn't get a lot of ground balls, but he walks only one batter per nine innings. A pitcher who does two of these things can be a top of the rotation starter, like Dan Haren. He has a good strikeout rate, good walk rate, but gives up a lot of fly balls. His ballpark and outfield defense help him a lot, and make him look a little better than he is, but he's still not an ace. When you have someone who excels at all three of these things, like Felix Hernandez, you get the makeup of a true ace pitcher. Of course, luck always plays a part, and when you get luck mixed with these three skills, then you get a season like Justin Verlander is having this year.



Before this season, Cueto had three years with the Reds rotation. Throughout those years, he had a strikeout rate of 7.3 K/9 with a walk rate of 3.1 BB/9. He had a ground ball rate of about 40% over that span.

In 2011 though, Cueto has seemed to change his approach to pitching. If you've watched him, then you've seen his new delivery, where he twists around, and actually points his back towards home plate before delivering. If you look at the numbers, you can see that his strikeout rate is way down, and his ground ball rate is way up. His walk rate is slightly lower to his career rate, but not enough to make a significant difference. He seems to be surrendering strikeouts for ground balls, and it's working for him. The Reds have an above average infield defender at every position when Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Paul Janish/ Zach Cozart, and Scott Rolen are on the field together, and ground balls don't tend to fly out of Great American Ballpark with the frequency that fly balls do which always helps.

Cueto's batting average on balls in play is only .226. That's very low, and unsustainable, even with the Reds' defense. His strand rate is also higher than it should be. It's currently 77%, and with Cueto's new pitch to contact method, we should expect it to be closer to 70%. Cueto's home run per fly ball rate is also about half of what it should be at 5.6%, and wouldn't be effected by his transition in skills. All of these things suggest that Cueto is getting lucky, and his xFIP, which predicts what a pitcher's ERA should be going forward, is an even 4.00.

There is a silver lining for Cueto though. Since the beginning of August, Cueto's strikeout rate has been back north of 7.2 K/9. This has also come with an increase in his walk rate, but his ground ball rate has stayed in the same range, and is still above 51%.

At different parts in the season, Cueto has shown an ability to get ground balls, control his walk rate, and strikeout batters at a good rate. If he could manage to harness everything together, he could have the makings of an elite starting pitcher, because like Ron Shandler said, "Once you show a skill, you own it." Johnny Cueto has shown all the skills, and certainly has the pedigree to become an elite pitcher. I think that there is a good chance that next year Cueto could put it all together, and become the dominant pitcher that the Reds need at the top of the rotation.