For the most part, I think that Manny Acta does a good job at managing the Indians bullpen, but there are a few things that I think could be better. I don't think any managers in the big leagues use their bullpens optimally though, because of the same rule. I don't think it takes your best relief pitcher to hold a three run lead for one inning, but oh well. Currently the Indians roster includes 7 relievers. They are Chad Durbin, Frank Herrmann, Chris Perez, Rafael Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith.
Chad Durbin is 33 years old, and at his best was an average middle reliever. Frank Herrmann is 27 years old, and is currently pitching to his skill level, which isn't special. Both of these guys should be used in mop up duty, and neither of them should have a major impact on the outcome of the game.
Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp are the two lefties that come out of the Tribe pen. Perez should be a lefty specialist coming out of the pen. Lefties have a slightly lower OPS against Perez then Sipp, but righties have a significantly higher OPS against against Perez than Sipp. Sipp should be used as our full inning guy, when the opposing team may have a few lefties coming up, or Acta wants to turn a switch hitter around. Perez should be the guy that comes in to face the Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer type players, and then get him out of there. Acta could do a better job of using his lefties. Righties have 93 plate appearances against Perez and 110 against Perez. That stats dictate that there should be a much greater split between these numbers.
Joe Smith is the guy Manny is currently using in the wrong capacity. I think Smith is a decent sixth or seventh inning option, who should cater strictly to right handed batters. But Acta has been using him in high leverage situations recently, and letting him pitch to both right and left handed batters. Smith career numbers against lefties aren't pretty, they have an OPS of above .800 against Smith. This year however he has been good against them, but in a small sample size, with a batting average on balls in play of .147. Lefties have a career BABIP of .337, which indicates regression will come at some point because that number is highly unsustainable. Smith also has a career walk rate of 4.15 BB/9. With these numbers, I think Smith would be best used in the middle innings, a lineup of right handed hitters, with maybe one lefty. If by the time in the inning that the lefty comes up, if there's no one on, it'd be ok to let Smith pitch to him, but I'd be very hesitant to let Smith Pitch to a lefty with runners on base. I also think that Smith should be used to start an inning only. A guy with a high walk rate should only be used to start an inning, because coming in during the middle of the inning there's a high likelihood that he will compound the problem.
If Acta wants a righty to come in during the middle of a high leverage inning, Vinnie Pestano is the only choice who doesn't carry the "closer" label. Pestano in a power righty with a high strikeout rate, and has been the best reliever in out bullpen this year by a wide margin. H currently holds an ERA of 2.95, and has been somewhat unlucky, sporting a 2.37 xFIP. Pestano should be the first right hander Acta goes to high leverage situation.
Chris Perez in the current closer for the tribe. I think that the "closer" label and the save statistic are the worst thing for a manager when trying to utilize a bullpen. Logic says that your closer should be your best relief pitcher. But if you're leading a game going into the eighth inning, and the opposing team has their 3-4-5 hitters coming up, shouldn't that inning be the one when a manager uses their best reliever? Assuming he let one batter on, the next inning would be 7-8-9 hitters. I also don't think that it's necessary to use your closer in the ninth inning when your winning by three runs. A position player could come in and get three outs before giving up three runs.
With that said, I don't think Perez is as good as should be. This year, Perez's walk rate is slightly higher than last year, while his strikeout rate has plummeted from 8.7 to 5.8 K/9. Seriously, 5.8 K/9? That's terrible. He's gotten lucky this year with his BABIP and his strand rate. His ERA should be about a run higher than it currently is. I don't know what's wrong with him, but something clearly isn't right with him.
The Indians bullpen has been good this year, and should currently be laid out like this:
Mop-up Duty/Middle Relief - Chad Durbin and Frank Herrmann
Lefty Specialist - Rafael Perez
Righty Specialist - Joe Smith
Lefty Setup Man - Tony Sipp
Righty Setup Man - Vinnie Pestano
Closer - Chris Perez
With the addition of Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians have shown that they believe that they can win this year, and for the coming two seasons. The bullpen is young enough to stay mostly intact for those years. I think that they need one more impact right hander. They could get this from two spots in their pen, either Herrmann (only 27) could develop into this player, or Durbin's spot could the guy. Durbin is currently 33, and on a one year deal. Assuming the Indians will let him go, they could replace him with an impact righty either through free agency, or from the minor leagues. This addition would solidify the Indians pen for the next few years, before the lose Choo and Asdrubal after 2013, and would most likely have to blow up the bullpen anyway.
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