For Mark Teixeira's first seven years in the Major Leagues, he was a .290 hitter. In the past two years, however, Teixeira has a batting average of .252. Now, I'm not a big proponent of batting average by itself, but his batting average is weighing down his on base percentage and slugging percentage, which I do put a lot of stock into. Teixeira isn't old, he's only 31, but I do think that he is starting the decline of his career. Since the removal of performance enhancing drugs and greenies, we don't see players peaking in their mid-thirties anymore.
Teixeira is showing some tell-tale signs of a player who is developing serious "old player skills". His batting average is dropping, but he's still taking his share of walks and hitting for power. He's never had much speed, and although he played other positions earlier in his career, he's a first baseman only at this point. Not taking anything away from him, because he's a good defensive first baseman, but it's not like he's a center fielder who could move to a corner, or a shortstop who could move to third base.
His strikeout rate has been pretty much in line with his career rate, even though his batting average is down over the past two years. Usually when you see a player's batting average go down late in his career, it's due to him striking out more often, but it's generally coupled with an increase in his walk rate, which comes out a a wash in the on base percentage department. Teixeira's low batting average can be partially explained by his low batting average on balls in play, he's has a career .296 BABIP, which is what would be expected for a player like him, but in the past two years, his BABIP has been .250. His line drive rate is slightly down, while his fly ball percentage is up above his career rate over the past two years. His ground ball rate is slightly down over the same period of time.
When a hitter has Teixeira's power, an increase in in fly ball rate and decrease in ground ball rate is generally a good thing. It should lead to more extra base hits, and a higher slugging percentage, however fly balls get turned into outs more often than ground balls, which would lead to a lower BABIP, and lower batting average. His home run to fly ball ratio has been pretty consistant throughout his career, so there's not concern there. His isolated power statistic (which is just SLG-BA), is still where it needs to be for him.
Teixeira is still owed $22.5 million a year until 2016. It looks like for the remainder of the contract, this is what you're going to get from him. I don't think that he's ever going to be a high average hitter again, but he should continue to hit for power and get on base at a good clip. Toward the end of the contract however, the Yankees might have a situation where the right baseball move would be to move him down in the order, but much like with Jeter, it's going to be a tough decision. With him and Alex Rodriguez, they have a lot of money invested in middle of the order hitters who are starting their decline. I wouldn't be surprised next year if three of the first four hitters in the Yankees lineup were Granderson, Cano, and Gardner, with A-Rod, Teixeira, and possibly Jeter moving down in the order. Eventually the youth movement will have to hit this club, it's only a matter of time until they can no longer live with their declining players taking at bats away from their younger more talented players.
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