I watched James Shield pitch tonight against the Rangers, and he looked good. He wasn't sharp in the first inning, but got out of it without allowing a run, and was lights out after that pitching eight innings with seven strikeouts while only allowing four hits and one walk. Shields is the oldest pitcher in the Rays rotation at the ripe old age of 29, and could be pitching his last inning for the Rays this September.
The Rays have one of the best problems that you can have in baseball, they have too much pitching. More specifically, starting pitching. They're major league rotation is full, with no weak links. David Price and James Shields are top of the rotation arms, while Jeremy Hellickson is merely average right now, but profiles as a number two starter in the near future. Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis make up the back end of the rotation, but could both be mid-rotation starters on most other staffs.
The Rays also have a prospect in Class-AAA named Matt Moore, and he is the best pitching prospect on the minor leagues. If you haven't seen Matt Moore, he pitched in the Futures Game in Arizona this summer, and stole the show. He's a lefty, and throws in the mid to high 90's and has a slider in the high eighties that will help him rack up the strikeouts. Moore will be ready to join the big league rotation next year, and the Rays will need to make room for him. Much like what they did prior to this season by trading Matt Garza to the Cubs to make room for Jeremy Hellickson, I expect them to trade one of their current starters to make room for Moore.
I don't see a scenario where the Rays will trade David Price, he should be their ace for the next few years. Even though his contract is up after 2012, I think the Rays will do everything in their power to lock him up. I don't think that the Rays would trade Jeremy Hellickson either, but there was rumors about swapping him for Colby Rasmus around the deadline. I don't think that this was ever officially offered, because the Cardinals would be crazy to accept a package based on Edwin Jackson instead of one with Hellickson as the center piece.
James Shields has pitched well this year, after having seasons to forget in 2009 and 2010. The Rays have options for him for the next three years, and could pick one up, and then look to trade him if they see this season as a statistical outlier, and want to sell high on him.
If the Rays want to put together the best possible rotation on the coming years though, they'll part ways with either Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis. Niemann is having a good season, but doesn't have the upside that Shields, Price, Hellickson, or Moore have. Neimann, much like Adam Wainwright, has carried the worry of arm injury with him since before he was drafted. Niemann changed his release point this summer, and it has led to good results so far, but the Rays could look at themselves as playing with fire with Niemann, and could choose to deal him over the offseason.
Wade Davis was a good prospect throughout his time in the minor leagues, but hasn't had the success in the big leagues that the Rays would have hoped. He's only 25, but a change of scenery might be needed. His strikeout rate is down his year to below 5 K/9, and he's only generating 35% ground balls. A trade might be the best thing for Davis, because it would be a lot easier for him to develop if he leaves the American League East. I could see a trip to the National League really jump starting his career the way it did for Ian Kennedy.
There's always a market for starting pitching in the big leagues, and teams are willing to pay a premium for it. One of these guys will be traded this offseason, and will bring back a good return to add to the already loaded Rays farm system. While Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann are the most likely to be traded, although I could see the Rays picking up Shields option and trading him.
The one thing that the Rays need to add to the major league roster in power. They play in a good pitchers park, and have a lot of pitching talent, but have trouble scoring runs at times. Their best power hitting prospect is Josh Sale, an outfielder who's still a few years away from contributing. If they trade B.J. Upton this offseason, it'll be even worse. They need to add power, and I could see them swapping a starter for a major league ready bat with power. If they trade Upton, and then slide Desmond Jennings over to center, left field will be vacant. First base should also be open, assuming that the Rays don't bring back Casey Kotchman. With these two openings, the Rays will have two openings of positions at the top of the defensive spectrum that should be easy to fill.
No comments:
Post a Comment