Ranting about Players Turned Analysts

One of the things I can't stand in baseball is when former players turn into analysts, and then give their analysis based on stats like RBIs, pitcher wins, and saves. It's not only the fact that I believe that their analysis is off-base because of the statistics that they use. It's the fact that they've played the game, and still believe what those stats are telling them. In my younger years, I was told to that the best way analyze players were by stats like runs batted in, pitcher wins, saves, and batting average. At the time, I took this to be fact, and never really questioned it.

I remember the first time that I questioned these traditional stats. I was playing in high school at the time, and was usually a leadoff hitter. As a leadoff hitter, my job was to get on base, make my way around the bases, and score runs. I remember thinking, "Why aren't runs scored a more important stat that RBIs. I have to get on base, navigate my way around them successfully. And then score on either a hit, or sometimes a ball that's put in play, but not a hit. Why is the other player's RBI more important than my run scored, I did most of the work?" This happened when I was 15 or 16 years old.

I watch MLB Network a lot. And for the most part, I like their mix of analysts and former players especially when explaining how to execute plays or pointing out details during the game that would otherwise go unnoticed. The thing I can't stand though, is how the former players can still see the value in the traditional stats. At one point, you have to think critically about your profession, and after being around the game is a professional nature (either as a player or analyst), I don't understand how they can be so ignorant that they think that the best way to analyze individual players is by statistics that are so largely based on team performance.

I'm not saying that former players should dive head first into saber metrics and solely use them. Even I site stats like earned run average and batting average if I think that they're appropriate. But on MLB Network last night, Mitch Williams admitted to having never heard of UZR. He also stated that he thought that the Rangers have better starting pitching than the Rays because all of the Rangers starters have double digit wins. Larry Bowa followed this up by stating that the Yankees defense is better than the Rays because of the fact that the Yankees have won more gold gloves than the Yankees. I disagree with both of these statements, but that's not what's important here. I think we can all agree that gold gloves are more based on offense than they should. Derek Jeter won a gold glove last year, even though every defensive metric shows him as being below average. These men have obviously dedicated their lives to baseball, but I don't understand how they can be so oblivious to the change in analytics that's happening all around them. Front offices and media are starting to use newer metrics when looking at players performance, but it seems like former players refuse to acknowledge them. You see this also with network announcers.

I'm assuming that anyone who runs a TV network, but I'm assuming that most of the time that they are progressive thinking. I can't imagine why none of them have tried to take a chance by employing a color analyst with a saber metric mindset. Newer metrics are a better way to analyze players and judge their performance, and the best way to spread the knowledge is to have them incorporated during the live analysis of the game.

Red Sox vs Orioles Bottom of the Ninth

I just saw a replay of the bottom of the ninth on MLB network and found a few things curious. When Nolan Reimold was up, Why was Ellsbury shading him so far towards left. Papelbon had been pitching away to right handers throughout the whole inning, I don't understand why Ellsbury would be playing anyone to pull. If you look at Riemold's spray chart, you can see that he's not a pull hitter. He seems to hit the ball to all fields, so I'm not sure what the Red Sox Through process was here.

On the Robert Andino hit that ended the game, what exactly was Car Crawford doing. Coming off the bat, it looks to be an out, but Carl Crawford looks lackadaisical coming in on the ball, and then slides and the ball goes under it. Carl Crawford is known for speed and defense, I have no idea what he was doing there. It caps off what was a very disappointing year for him and the team.

I think that the Red Sox need to resign Theo Epstein and pick up the option on Terry Francona immediately. Red Sox fans might not be happy with the way the team has performed this year, but who are they going to get to upgrade the manager or general manager positions. If the Boston fans aren't happy with them they should look into the Jim Tracy's and Brian Sabean's of the world.

Playoff Preview and Predictions

It's late Wednesday night, and the Red Sox and Rays just finished the most epic five minutes of baseball that I've ever seen. We're not going to have any play-in games on Thursday, but did we get a show tonight. I haven't written much lately because I didn't think that there was a chance that the Red Sox and Braves would lose their leads. Up until a week ago, the Braves and Red Sox had an 85% chance and 90% chance of making the playoffs. Tonight however we had four games that mattered and three of them were phenomenal. The Cardinals crushed the Astros 8-0 behind a strong effort from Chris Carpenter, but the other three games were all one run games, with two taking extra innings.

We now know the playoff match ups, and in the American League it will be Rays at Rangers and Tigers at Yankees. The National League will see Diamondbacks at Brewers and Cardinals at Phillies. In the end I think that all of the right teams made it. Even though it didn't seem like the Rays or Red Sox wanted to win the AL wild card, the Rays did play better than Boston down the stretch and should be fun to watch in the playoffs. Here's how I see the first round shaking out.

Rays at Rangers I think that this is a terrible matchup for the Rays. The Rangers offense is playing so well right now. It's firing on all cylinders, and I don't see how the Rays can keep up with them. They're middle of the lineup with Hamilton, Beltre and Napoli have been unbelievable this month. While the starting pitching of the Rays has been their strong suit this season, the Rangers have had good starting pitching for most of the season. I think that the Rangers pitching will keep Tampa in check, while the Rangers with breakthrough with a few big innings at the plate and take the series. I hate betting against Joe Maddon, but I just think that the Rangers are better than the Rays right now. I think that the Rangers win this series in four games.

Derek Holland Could be Primed to Breakout in 2012

Since the time Derek Holland was drafted in 2006, to the point where he had made him MLB debut in 2009, he's was one of the top prospects in the Texas Rangers system. Coming up through the farm system, Holland developed very well, filling out and adding some velocity to his fastball. He's always been a strikeout pitcher, with a minor league strikeout rate of 9.5 K/9, and a major league strikeout rate of 7.4 K/9 coming into 2011. Since being promoted to the majors however, Holland has largely struggled. In over 380 major league innings, his ERA is 4.79. He's had flashed of dominance, but has been largely inconsistent.

This year, in his second half, Holland has been very strong however. Holland's strikeout rate for the year is only 7.16 K/9, but that's largely weighted down by June, where is was down to 4.9 K/9. Over the second half, he's strikeout rate is 7.8 K/9, and his K/BB rate is 3.0, a full strikeout higher than his 2.0 mark in the first half. Even more so, in August, his strikeout rate was 8.2 K/9, and is September so far it's been 9.1 K/9. Another positive sign for Holland has been his ground ball rate. It's up from 42.1% last year to 46.4% this year. The difference isn't that great, but getting ground balls is very important for Holland because fly balls tend to fly out in Arlington, and with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus on the left side, those ground balls should turn into outs at a very high rate. While walks were never a problem for Holland in the minors, they were in his 2010 stint with the big club, as he was walking 3.77 batters per nine innings. This season however, he's down to 3.05 BB/9.

Even with all of these improvements that Holland is making this season, his ERA is still very similar. It was 4.08 in 2010, and it's 4.02 in 2011. These numbers conceal that Holland was a little lucky last year, and his xFIP indicates that his ERA should have been around 4.21. This year on the other hand, Holland is getting a slightly unlucky, with an xFIP of 3.80.

All of these underlying numbers, combined with the fact that Holland has the pedigree to be a top end starter, lead me to believe that Holland is primed for a major breakout season in 2012. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that he's probably going to have thrown around 70 more innings that last year, and 50 more than any other professional season by the end of this year. That doesn't even include the fact that the Rangers look like they'll make the post season, which could add four or five more starts to his workload, while simultaneously taking away from his offseason recovery time.

Areas that the Tribe Needs to Address this Offseason

The 2011 season has overall been a good one for the Indians. The Tribe was a team that no one expected to contend, but they stayed competitive throughout most of the year. Now, as the season is closing out, they've slid out of contention. The Tigers got hot, and the Indians got cold, and it's about time for Cleveland fans to do what they do best, speculate about next year. Here's my take on what needs to happen to set this team up to take the next step in 2012.

Staring Pitching:

The starting rotation seems to be fine with me. Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez are a one-two punch that you can go to war with. They're solid, and can be dominating when they're on. Fausto Carmona can be a fine number three starter if he keeps the ball down, and can keep his walk rate under control. The Tribe has enough depth that they can fill in their fourth and fifth starter spots with adequate arms, and have depth in AAA that they can dip into if they need it. Josh Tomlin will probably start out next season in the fourth spot, while David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez, Corey Kluber, and Zach McAllister will compete for the fifth spot. The Tribe is always working with limited resources in the financial department, and I'd be very surprised if they spend any money here.

Relief Pitching:

I like most of the pieces that the Indians have in the bullpen. They have two reliable lefties in the back end, in Rafeal Perez and Tony Sipp. They have righties that they can rely on with Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, and Frank Hermann. One thing that needs to happen that can make a huge impact for the bullpen is if Chris Perez gets his strikeout rate back up. He's never had a season in the majors or minors where his strikeout rate has been below 8.7 K/9, but this year it's a pathetic 5.8. He's not walking any less, and is actually getting fewer ground balls than in years past. This all sets up for a perfect storm of disaster for Perez if he doesn't right the ship. Perez will be a player to monitor during 2012, because if the Indians are going to try to contend again, they're not going to be able to give games away in the ninth inning.

List of Must Watch Hitters

There are plenty or great hitters in the league now a days, but there are only a few who I consider have "must watch" plate appearances. With these guys, I schedule my bathroom and snack breaks around their spot in the batting order. I can't get enough of them, and try to catch as many at bats as I can. Here's my list of guys:

Mike Stanton - This guy hits the ball so hard it scares me. I think he's the reason no one buys seats in the outfield of Sun Life Stadium, because they fear for their health. He hits line drives that go 400 feet, and when I see them, I just say "Good Lord," to myself.

Matt Kemp - One of my favorite all around players. What I like about Kemp is his ability to hit the ball to center-right center field, especially in Dodger Stadium. His opposite field power is amazing, and once he gets on base, he is a threat to run. 

Jose Bautista - He's a dead pull hitter, and it's fun to watch. On his way to leading the league in home runs for the second straight year, he should win the AL MVP this year. The only negative to Bautista is that he walks in one of every five plate appearances.

Justin Upton - He's the main reason for the surge that the Diamondbacks have been on. He hits the ball with authority, and his home ball park makes it look even better. I still wish he was in the home run derby this year, and he's still only 24.

Miguel Cabrera - Not as much power as the rest of these guys, but hey, he was originally a shortstop. That still makes me laugh. Cabrera has power, but also has plate discipline. He always gives you a professional at bat, and is a real pleasure to watch.

Joey Votto - Miguel Cabrera has almost a clone in the National League with Joey Votto. Votto is more athletic, and a better defender. Their slash lines are .320/.427/554 for Votto and .330/.432/.555 for Cabrera. Cabrera has 26 home runs, while Votto has 28, but in a much better park for hitters.

There are many other great players in the league, but these are the ones that I feel are a step above the rest.

Around the League: Chris Carpenter agreed to an extension with the Cardinals this week. The contract is a two year, $21 million deal. I like the contract from the Cardinals side, because it's short, gives them more cost certainty for their Pujols negotiations, and ensures that they will have an elite pitcher while Adam Wainwright recovers from his injury. I don't like when teams give long contracts so pitchers, so I like two years. The price is fair, because I think it factors in the risk for injury.

And the Races are Back

Going into the weekend, the only race for the postseason was in the AL West. However, the two teams leading in each league's wild card race got swept by the team closest to them. The Cardinals took three from the Braves, and the Rays swept the Red Sox. The Cardinals are now 4.5 games behind the Braves, and the Rays are only 3.5 games back.

The Cardinals and Braves series was a close one. The first two games were both won by a score of 4-3, with the first game going into extra innings. The Braves played well, but the Cardinals were better. The first game went to extra innings after Pujols ties the game in the ninth with a hit off of Craig Kimbrel. In the other two games, the Cardinals put up runs early, and the Braves offense couldn't keep up. The Braves are a team that is built much like the Colts in football, before Peyton Manning got hurt. Their team is setup to play with a lead. The Braves want to get six innings out of their starter, try to built a lead, and then shorten the game with their bullpen. The Colts want to get out to a lead, and then let their pass rushers loose, and create havoc in the backfield to cement a win. The problem with both, is that their offense can't be counted on to give them a lead in the early stages of the game with any consistency. They have a few hitters who are playing well, but they also lack depth, and have a few holes in their lineup. Even their tremendous pitching depth is being tested. They're Class-AAA rotation is great, but very young, and will have some growing pains adjusting to major league hitters, which isn't ideal for a team trying to make the playoffs. St. Louis on the other hand has the offense to stick with them, but they need their starting pitching to remain consistent and their bullpen to be more reliable. I think that the Braves should still win the wild card, but a team with Fredi is never a sure thing.

The Save Stat Needs to Go

I've never been a big fan of the save statistic. It was created by a baseball writer in the sixties, and was fine back then, when pitchers would pitch multiple innings to record a save. Managers not manage their teams to the save rule, saving their best reliever for a save opportunity, even though I'm pretty sure the worst pitcher on a staff could get three outs before giving up three runs.

Tonight, the Braves were playing a game against the Phillies in Philadelphia. Both of these teams are ticketed for the playoffs, and tonight's game seemed like a possible preview. Each team was playing hard, and the game had the atmosphere of a playoff game. Going into the late innings, the Braves had a one run lead. Things were setup for them to use their big three relievers, and win the game. Then the game got off track when Jonny Venters gave up the tying run in the bottom of the eighth. Atlanta didn't score in the top of the ninth, so the game was tied going into the bottom of the ninth, and here's why the save stat becomes a problem.

Fredi Gonzalez, the Braves manager, decided to use Peter Moylan in the bottom of the ninth, saving Craig Kimbrel in case a save situation arose in extra innings. Moylan allowed three base runners, while only getting one out, and allowed the winning run to score. Without the save statistic, Gonzalez wouldn't have had a reason not to use his best relief pitcher in that situation.

We saw another glaring example of managers hurting their teams because of the save rule in Pittsburgh earlier this year. We all remember when the Pirates lost to the Braves earlier this year in the 19th innings, and then went on to lose 11 of their next 12 games. Joel Hanrahan has been the Pirates best relief pitcher all year, but because of the save rule, Hanrahan only appeared in 4 of those games. Five of those 12 games were one run games, but Hanrahan didn't wasn't used because Clint Hurdle, the Pirates manager, was saving him for a save situation instead of using him to try to help the team win games.

As an Indians fan, I got to see Joe Borowski rack up 45 saves in 2007. Forty-five is a lot of saves, but was Borowski a good pitcher in 2007? No, absolutely not. His ERA was 5.07. Watching the Indians that year was probably the closest I've ever come to having a heart attack. Getting saves doesn't make you a good relief pitcher, getting a lot of strikeouts an ground balls without walking many batters makes you a good relief pitcher.

My Case Against MLB Playoff Expansion

When I think about the landscape of baseball people. I don't usually associate myself with the "Old School" baseball folks. I generally view myself as a suave, smooth, James Bond type that aligns with the "New School" ways of thinking and analysis. However, on the topic of expanding the playoffs to include another wild card team, I find myself agreeing with the traditional baseball view.

I already think that the wild card spot that we have is a problem. The unbalanced schedule in the MLB creates an unfair scenario for teams when competing for the wild card. Let's say that the Rays are contending with the Angels for the wild card playoff spot; is it fair that the Rays have to play 18 games against each of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, while the Angles get to play 18 games against each of the Mariners, Rangers, and Athletics? No, it's not. Ever since the wild card was created in 1995, the MLB has systematically ruined the competitive balance, creating an unfair competition for teams in different divisions. The unbalanced schedule was introduced in 2001, and interleague play was introduced in 1997. The problem with interleague play is the notion of "natural rivalries." The natural rivalries are basically MLB's excuse to make more money by allowing the two New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles teams play each other more often. If the Mets are competing against the Nationals for the NL East, how is it fair that the Mets have to play two series against the Yankees, while the Nationals get to play the Orioles for six games. The schedule changes since the MLB went to three divisions per league handicaps the league, and hurts teams competing for the wild card in stronger divisions.

The Orioles Season in 2011

Before this season started, I was optimistic about the future for the Orioles. I was high on them for the 2011 season, I didn't think that they would win the division or anything crazy like that, but I thought that they could be competitive, and and possibly get close to the .500 mark.

The season started off well enough for the O's. Through the End of June, they were 35-43. Not a great record, but certainly better than they have been in recent years. Then the calendar flipped to July, and that month was a disaster with the Flying Showalter's going 7 and 20 in the month. With the way the other four teams in the division were playing, their July pretty much cemented the Orioles into the basement for the season.

Their offense hasn't been the problem, as they've been right around league average in runs scored this season. They've gotten contributions from a lot of places to their offense, but haven't had anyone have a real breakout season, with the exception of J.J. Hardy. They gave Hardy a three year extension during the middle of the season. I didn't like the deal because Hardy has had a long injury history throughout his career, and they could have gotten a lot for him at the trade deadline. After Stephen Drew went down, both NL West teams could have used Hardy's services, but the Orioles locked him up.

The Future of Dexter Fowler

Coming up through the minors, William Dexter Fowler profiled as the perfect leadoff hitter; a switch hitter, who has always shown good patience at the plate and taken a good amount of walks. He has good speed, and plays a premium position in center field. Fowler has spent most of his time since 2008 in the majors, but has never excelled, and is frequently sent back down to the minors when he struggles.

Fowler has always been a raw player, ever since being drafted. He was a two sport athlete in high school, also playing basketball, and drew attention from colleges for both sports. He ultimately chose professional baseball, and was drafted by the Rockies. Two sport athletes typically take a longer time to develop because they haven't focused strictly on baseball, and throughout high school they usually succeed purely on their athleticism. They need the repetition of minor league seasons to turn their tools into skills, and learn the subtleties of the game.

Friday Recap 9/2/11

The Indians slid past the Royals tonight by a score of 5-4. The Tribe got out to a five run lead by the end of the fourth inning, thanks to home runs by Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Donald. Justin Masterson had a good outing, going seven innings while only allowing four runs. He was good early, but gave up all the runs in the final three innings as he began to tire. The bullpen them came in to shut the door in the eighth and ninth to preserve the win.

The Indians didn't get any help from the White Sox, as Chicago fell to the Tigers behind another strong outing form Justin Verlander. The Tigers got to White Sox starter John Danks in the first and fifth innings for all eight of their runs. Danks pitched better than his line shows, it seemed like everything that the Tigers put in play fell for a hit. It probably didn't matter though, because Verlander was outstanding once again.

In another big game, the Rangers got to Boston early and never looked back. They scored in four of the first five innings, getting out to a quick 10-0 lead. Derek Holland went seven innings for the Rangers and pitched very well. He only allowed two hits, while striking out six and not walking anyone. Andrew Miller got shelled, which isn't surprising. Even though he'd pitched well recently, he was walking way too many people, and should have an ERA close to five. Miller was once a top prospect for the Tigers, but due to injuries and his inability to control his walk rate, he's never lived up to his potential. He's still only 26, and signing him was a good lottery ticket for the Red Sox if they can turn him into a reliable back end starter or lefty specialist in the future.

Weekend Preview 9/2/11

It's the first weekend of September, meaning rosters have just expanded. Throughout this month, you'll see teams bring up players, mostly to sit on the bench. Some will get spastic starts, some will pinch hit, it all depends where the parent club is in the standings. Not all players will be up right away, because some minor league teams make the minor league playoffs. As they're eliminated, you'll see more youngsters be called up. The only people eligible to be called up are players that are on the 40 man roster. These players are normally high draft picks who got a major league contract, players who were optioned to the minors earlier in the season, and players who were signed as depth but are still in the minors. These players won't have a big affect on the pennant races though, because if they could affect it, the clubs would have called them up in July.

There are a few good series happening this weekend. There are only two that should impact the playoff races, but there is another one that could be a playoff preview. The Rangers go to Boston this weekend, and this could be a divisional series matchup. The pitching match ups aren't ideal, but it should still be a good series. Texas will throw Holland, Lewis, and Harrison, while Boston will use Miller, Bedard, and Lackey. While I think Texas has the advantage, the Rangers aren't as good against lefties, and Boston will throw two at them. Getting Adrian Beltre back should help them against lefties, and should solidify them as the division winners over the Angels.