Staring Pitching:
The starting rotation seems to be fine with me. Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez are a one-two punch that you can go to war with. They're solid, and can be dominating when they're on. Fausto Carmona can be a fine number three starter if he keeps the ball down, and can keep his walk rate under control. The Tribe has enough depth that they can fill in their fourth and fifth starter spots with adequate arms, and have depth in AAA that they can dip into if they need it. Josh Tomlin will probably start out next season in the fourth spot, while David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez, Corey Kluber, and Zach McAllister will compete for the fifth spot. The Tribe is always working with limited resources in the financial department, and I'd be very surprised if they spend any money here.
Relief Pitching:
Relief Pitching:
I like most of the pieces that the Indians have in the bullpen. They have two reliable lefties in the back end, in Rafeal Perez and Tony Sipp. They have righties that they can rely on with Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith, and Frank Hermann. One thing that needs to happen that can make a huge impact for the bullpen is if Chris Perez gets his strikeout rate back up. He's never had a season in the majors or minors where his strikeout rate has been below 8.7 K/9, but this year it's a pathetic 5.8. He's not walking any less, and is actually getting fewer ground balls than in years past. This all sets up for a perfect storm of disaster for Perez if he doesn't right the ship. Perez will be a player to monitor during 2012, because if the Indians are going to try to contend again, they're not going to be able to give games away in the ninth inning.
The Indians will probably have another 12 man pitching staff next year, meaning that they will have one more spot in their pen. Chad Durbin shouldn't be brought back, and this is a spot where they could use another pitcher who can be used in late innings. I'm not a fan of signing big name free agents for the bullpen, and the Indians usually don't spend money there. The Tribe does have options in Columbus that could be ready to fill in this role. Zach Putman or Chen Lee could be right handed options, while Nick Hagadone could be a lefty solution if they want to go that way.
Outfield:
The Indians will probably have another 12 man pitching staff next year, meaning that they will have one more spot in their pen. Chad Durbin shouldn't be brought back, and this is a spot where they could use another pitcher who can be used in late innings. I'm not a fan of signing big name free agents for the bullpen, and the Indians usually don't spend money there. The Tribe does have options in Columbus that could be ready to fill in this role. Zach Putman or Chen Lee could be right handed options, while Nick Hagadone could be a lefty solution if they want to go that way.
Outfield:
The only outfield spot that I'm confident about for the Indians at this point is right field. Shin-Soo Choo will be there, and hopefully will recover from a down year in 2010. He played well in August between disabled list stints, and should be fully healthy by 2012. The Indians know they're not making the playoffs this year, and shouldn't bring Choo back unless he's 100%. I expect him to come into 2012 fully healthy, and get back to his .300/.400/.500 ways. Grady Sizemore is coming off of another injury plagued season, and has a team option for $8.5 million next year. Cleveland can go three different ways with this; they can pick up the option if they think he's healthy, they can not pick up the option and try to negotiate for a lesser salary, or they can part ways with Grady. If Sizemore plays 130 games in 2012, I think $8.5 million would be fair if he produces decent numbers. If Sizemore stays, he will probably be in center field, with Michael Brantley in left. Brantley's wrist injury should be healed by next spring, and he will be in the outfield somewhere. They could put Brantley in center and Sizemore in right, to try to protect Grady a little. If Sizemore isn't retained, Kusuke Fukudome could be brought back in to play left, with Brantley in center. Fukudome would be a good top of the order hitter with good on base skills.
I don't see a scenario where all four of these guys are brought back, because it would be expensive to bring back Sizemore and Fukudome, especially when it would create an odd man out situation. In case of injury, they have resources like Ezequial Carrera in the minors, who can fill in for a short span, and play any of the outfield positions adequately. The Outfield is should be a strong point of the team in 2012, providing above average defense, good on base ability, and some power in Choo and Sizemore.
Infield:
I don't see a scenario where all four of these guys are brought back, because it would be expensive to bring back Sizemore and Fukudome, especially when it would create an odd man out situation. In case of injury, they have resources like Ezequial Carrera in the minors, who can fill in for a short span, and play any of the outfield positions adequately. The Outfield is should be a strong point of the team in 2012, providing above average defense, good on base ability, and some power in Choo and Sizemore.
Infield:
I have mixed feelings about the Indians infield in 2012. I think that Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis could be good offensive players. Cabrera's power surge in so far this season appears to be legit, while Kipnis has looked like the real deal in his short stint with the Tribe. Lonnie Chisenhall might prove to be in an awkward spot in 2012. He's struggled in his first year in the majors, while I think he'll hit well against right handed pitching in 2012, he's never hit against lefties. That could cause a problem because the only way to improve his numbers against lefties, would be to give him at bats against them. But if the Indians are contending, they won't be in a position to let Chisenhall waste outs against lefties. Forcing Chisenhall into a platoon will only limit his future potential however. It will be a situation to monitor, and the Tribe management will have to handle it delicately.
First base will be a bigger problem for the Indians, but should be solved before the season starts. Management has been frustrated by Matt LaPorta, and he may be on his way out of town. This is a spot where I think that the Indians could spend a little money to bring in a free agent. I don't expect them to go after Prince or Pujols, but a Carlos Pena type could fill the spot nicely. Although it's a long shot, I think the Indians would also be smart to look into Logan Morrison from the Marlins. He's had a few problems with the front office, and could be in the dog house. It'd be a long shot, if the Indians could buy low on Morrison, and put him back at first base, it would be a great addition. The one thing that I hope that the Indians don't do is put Carlos Santana at first base full time. Santana has held his own at catcher, and it would really take away from his value if he's moved to first base full time. Lou Marson has been great behind the dish, but I hope they give Santana the job.
The biggest point of concern I have about the Indians infield is their defense. The Indians' pitching philosophy in recent years has been pitch to contact and get ground balls. Jason Kipnis is a converted outfielder, and while I think he won't be forced off of the position, I don't think he'll be an above average fielder there. Chisenhall is at third base for his bat. He's never been a plus defender, and I don't expect that to change. Asdrubal Cabrera is great around the bag at second, but defensive metrics show he's a below average defender. Since 2009, when Asdrubal took over as the starting shortstop, he's 25.7 runs below average per Fangraphs. We get caught up with a lot of the plays he makes up the middle and near the base, but he struggles going to his right. Neither Santana nor LaPorta are good defensive first basemen, completing the all-below average defensive infield. Mixing this with a pitch to contract staff, I see problems, which is why I have mixed feelings about the Indians infield.
A few other things I'd like to address: One big thing that they Indians need to improve is their contact rate at the plate. The Indians are slightly below average in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, but they're also 26th in the league in strikeout rate. They have a few young players, who should create more contact in 2012, but I think it should be something that should be stressed in the offseason. Those who've watched the Indians play this season are much too familiar with seeing the Indians hitters striking out when a productive out could score a run, or move runners up. If the Tribe puts more balls in play, it should help all three of BA, OBP, and SLG. If the Indians could take their slightly below average offense into a slightly above average offense, it would make a big difference in the standings.
Once again the Columbus Clippers have make the International League playoffs. An important thing to take away from this is the depth in the Indians system. The Tribe has been plagued with injuries this season, but have been able to dip in tot he minor leagues and come up with players who can fill in without becoming a liability. This should continue in 2012, and can't be overlooked. It's very rare for a contender to go through a season injury free (although the Brewers have done almost that this season).
The Indians lineup appears like it will be very left handed in 2012. Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Travis Hafner, and all three starting outfielders will be left handed. Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana are switch hitters, and will bat left handed most of the time. This not only leaves the Tribe vulnerable to good left handed starters, but to right handed pitchers with above average change ups or splitters. I remember watching a game in the middle of August, where Max Scherzer mowed down the Indians, in large part due to his change up. Scherzer's change up is his third best pitch, but with all the lefties in the lineup, he was forced to use it. The only bench players that it looks like the Tribe will have who bat only right handed are utility infielder Jason Donald, backup catcher Lou Marson, and possibly Shelley Duncan. There doesn't look to be much help in the minors either, as the only prospect who looks like he could make a big impact in 2012 is Nick Weglarz, who is also left handed. Matt LaPorta is a right handed hitter, but if he's not your everyday first baseman, it'd be challenging to carry a bench player with zero defensive value while carrying 12 pitchers.
First base will be a bigger problem for the Indians, but should be solved before the season starts. Management has been frustrated by Matt LaPorta, and he may be on his way out of town. This is a spot where I think that the Indians could spend a little money to bring in a free agent. I don't expect them to go after Prince or Pujols, but a Carlos Pena type could fill the spot nicely. Although it's a long shot, I think the Indians would also be smart to look into Logan Morrison from the Marlins. He's had a few problems with the front office, and could be in the dog house. It'd be a long shot, if the Indians could buy low on Morrison, and put him back at first base, it would be a great addition. The one thing that I hope that the Indians don't do is put Carlos Santana at first base full time. Santana has held his own at catcher, and it would really take away from his value if he's moved to first base full time. Lou Marson has been great behind the dish, but I hope they give Santana the job.
The biggest point of concern I have about the Indians infield is their defense. The Indians' pitching philosophy in recent years has been pitch to contact and get ground balls. Jason Kipnis is a converted outfielder, and while I think he won't be forced off of the position, I don't think he'll be an above average fielder there. Chisenhall is at third base for his bat. He's never been a plus defender, and I don't expect that to change. Asdrubal Cabrera is great around the bag at second, but defensive metrics show he's a below average defender. Since 2009, when Asdrubal took over as the starting shortstop, he's 25.7 runs below average per Fangraphs. We get caught up with a lot of the plays he makes up the middle and near the base, but he struggles going to his right. Neither Santana nor LaPorta are good defensive first basemen, completing the all-below average defensive infield. Mixing this with a pitch to contract staff, I see problems, which is why I have mixed feelings about the Indians infield.
A few other things I'd like to address: One big thing that they Indians need to improve is their contact rate at the plate. The Indians are slightly below average in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage, but they're also 26th in the league in strikeout rate. They have a few young players, who should create more contact in 2012, but I think it should be something that should be stressed in the offseason. Those who've watched the Indians play this season are much too familiar with seeing the Indians hitters striking out when a productive out could score a run, or move runners up. If the Tribe puts more balls in play, it should help all three of BA, OBP, and SLG. If the Indians could take their slightly below average offense into a slightly above average offense, it would make a big difference in the standings.
Once again the Columbus Clippers have make the International League playoffs. An important thing to take away from this is the depth in the Indians system. The Tribe has been plagued with injuries this season, but have been able to dip in tot he minor leagues and come up with players who can fill in without becoming a liability. This should continue in 2012, and can't be overlooked. It's very rare for a contender to go through a season injury free (although the Brewers have done almost that this season).
The Indians lineup appears like it will be very left handed in 2012. Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Travis Hafner, and all three starting outfielders will be left handed. Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana are switch hitters, and will bat left handed most of the time. This not only leaves the Tribe vulnerable to good left handed starters, but to right handed pitchers with above average change ups or splitters. I remember watching a game in the middle of August, where Max Scherzer mowed down the Indians, in large part due to his change up. Scherzer's change up is his third best pitch, but with all the lefties in the lineup, he was forced to use it. The only bench players that it looks like the Tribe will have who bat only right handed are utility infielder Jason Donald, backup catcher Lou Marson, and possibly Shelley Duncan. There doesn't look to be much help in the minors either, as the only prospect who looks like he could make a big impact in 2012 is Nick Weglarz, who is also left handed. Matt LaPorta is a right handed hitter, but if he's not your everyday first baseman, it'd be challenging to carry a bench player with zero defensive value while carrying 12 pitchers.
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