Before this season started, I was optimistic about the future for the Orioles. I was high on them for the 2011 season, I didn't think that they would win the division or anything crazy like that, but I thought that they could be competitive, and and possibly get close to the .500 mark.
The season started off well enough for the O's. Through the End of June, they were 35-43. Not a great record, but certainly better than they have been in recent years. Then the calendar flipped to July, and that month was a disaster with the Flying Showalter's going 7 and 20 in the month. With the way the other four teams in the division were playing, their July pretty much cemented the Orioles into the basement for the season.
Their offense hasn't been the problem, as they've been right around league average in runs scored this season. They've gotten contributions from a lot of places to their offense, but haven't had anyone have a real breakout season, with the exception of J.J. Hardy. They gave Hardy a three year extension during the middle of the season. I didn't like the deal because Hardy has had a long injury history throughout his career, and they could have gotten a lot for him at the trade deadline. After Stephen Drew went down, both NL West teams could have used Hardy's services, but the Orioles locked him up.
I also didn't understand why they signed Derrek Lee before the season began. They already had three players who can play first base in Luke Scott, Felix Pie, and Nolan Reimold. The Lee signed just created a log jam, and limited the looks that the front office could get at the players that they already have. The Orioles weren't going to win this year, and Derrek Lee wasn't going to be a part of their future, so the signing didn't make sense to me.
There is a silver lining to the Orioles offense however. Much of there production has come from players who they have signed for the future. If, for instance, the Orioles had a league average offense, but were getting career years from Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee, it would be very deceiving, because those players would be gone next year. Currently, the only position players with a [Fangraphs] WAR of over one are Matt Wieters (3.5), J.J.Hardy (3.4), Adam Jones (3.0), and Nick Markakis (1.9). The rest of the roster is mostly within one win of replacement level.
The biggest problem that the Orioles have had this year though is their starting pitching. The Orioles have a lot of good young starters on their club, and most of them have had disappointing year so far. Zach Britton has been the only one who I could say is having a good year. He's getting a lot of ground balls, keeping the ball in the park, not walking too many, and getting a few occasional strikeouts. Britton is only 23, and should develop into a reliable sinker baller who can eat innings, and put up good numbers.
Brad Bergeson hasn't improved much in his third season in the majors. Although his ERA has regressed each of the past three seasons, his peripheral numbers show that he's essentially been the same pitcher for all three years, just getting more bad luck each year. Bergson was moved to the bullpen in early June because of struggles. Through June and July, he struggled from the pen, but has been better since the beginning of August. Next year, Bergeson should be back in the rotation, taking the spot vacated by Jeremy Guthrie, who will be a free agent, and shouldn't be resigned.
Jake Arrieta has been better this year than last, in every way except his home run rate. He's allowing twice as many home runs this year as last, but he's currently giving them up at an unsustainable rate. The biggest positive for Arrieta this year is that he's managed to carry over his strikeout rate from the minors which disappeared last year. He still walks a lot of people, and will need to work on his command as he continues to develop as a pitcher.
Brian Matusz has been the biggest train wreck of the year for the birds though this year. He's has a year to forget, its been a year filled with injuries and bad results. His velocity has been down all year, and I don't think that he's ever been fully healthy. He projects as being the ace of the staff in the future, and I'm inclined to just write this year off as a lost cause, and not draw any long term conclusions about Matusz from 2011.
Chris Tillman is the fifth member of this young rotation, but was optioned to Class-AAA in the middle of August. He's only 23, but has already started 36 games in the majors. His ERA over that span is 5.58, and the advanced metrics say that that's about where it should be. Tillman's walk, strikeout, and ground ball numbers leave something to be desired. He's never had great control, and will need to work on that as he continues to pitch.
I think that all of these five pitchers could start, but Bergeson and Tillman could find themselves in the bullpen. Besides Britton, all of them have been disappointing this season. Their pitching as a whole has been a disappointment. There hasn't been much progress, and there has been noticeable regression with some of their staff. Their pitching coach resigned in the middle of the year, and I think that might be for the best.
Before the season, the Orioles looked to be building a team with a decent offense, a good pitching, and average defense. The pitching hasn't been there this year, and the offense could also defiantly improve. The defense has been below average, but the team metrics are being weighted down in large part by Mark Reynolds and Felix Pie.
While the Orioles best chance for contention in the near future is still probably based on realignment, I think that their future is still bright. Especially if the get a new pitching coach who is good at developing young pitchers. They're future is tied to their young pitchers, and developing them should be their first priority.
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