Since the time Derek Holland was drafted in 2006, to the point where he had made him MLB debut in 2009, he's was one of the top prospects in the Texas Rangers system. Coming up through the farm system, Holland developed very well, filling out and adding some velocity to his fastball. He's always been a strikeout pitcher, with a minor league strikeout rate of 9.5 K/9, and a major league strikeout rate of 7.4 K/9 coming into 2011. Since being promoted to the majors however, Holland has largely struggled. In over 380 major league innings, his ERA is 4.79. He's had flashed of dominance, but has been largely inconsistent.
This year, in his second half, Holland has been very strong however. Holland's strikeout rate for the year is only 7.16 K/9, but that's largely weighted down by June, where is was down to 4.9 K/9. Over the second half, he's strikeout rate is 7.8 K/9, and his K/BB rate is 3.0, a full strikeout higher than his 2.0 mark in the first half. Even more so, in August, his strikeout rate was 8.2 K/9, and is September so far it's been 9.1 K/9. Another positive sign for Holland has been his ground ball rate. It's up from 42.1% last year to 46.4% this year. The difference isn't that great, but getting ground balls is very important for Holland because fly balls tend to fly out in Arlington, and with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus on the left side, those ground balls should turn into outs at a very high rate. While walks were never a problem for Holland in the minors, they were in his 2010 stint with the big club, as he was walking 3.77 batters per nine innings. This season however, he's down to 3.05 BB/9.
Even with all of these improvements that Holland is making this season, his ERA is still very similar. It was 4.08 in 2010, and it's 4.02 in 2011. These numbers conceal that Holland was a little lucky last year, and his xFIP indicates that his ERA should have been around 4.21. This year on the other hand, Holland is getting a slightly unlucky, with an xFIP of 3.80.
All of these underlying numbers, combined with the fact that Holland has the pedigree to be a top end starter, lead me to believe that Holland is primed for a major breakout season in 2012. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that he's probably going to have thrown around 70 more innings that last year, and 50 more than any other professional season by the end of this year. That doesn't even include the fact that the Rangers look like they'll make the post season, which could add four or five more starts to his workload, while simultaneously taking away from his offseason recovery time.
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