It's late Wednesday night, and the Red Sox and Rays just finished the most epic five minutes of baseball that I've ever seen. We're not going to have any play-in games on Thursday, but did we get a show tonight. I haven't written much lately because I didn't think that there was a chance that the Red Sox and Braves would lose their leads. Up until a week ago, the Braves and Red Sox had an 85% chance and 90% chance of making the playoffs. Tonight however we had four games that mattered and three of them were phenomenal. The Cardinals crushed the Astros 8-0 behind a strong effort from Chris Carpenter, but the other three games were all one run games, with two taking extra innings.
We now know the playoff match ups, and in the American League it will be Rays at Rangers and Tigers at Yankees. The National League will see Diamondbacks at Brewers and Cardinals at Phillies. In the end I think that all of the right teams made it. Even though it didn't seem like the Rays or Red Sox wanted to win the AL wild card, the Rays did play better than Boston down the stretch and should be fun to watch in the playoffs. Here's how I see the first round shaking out.
Rays at Rangers I think that this is a terrible matchup for the Rays. The Rangers offense is playing so well right now. It's firing on all cylinders, and I don't see how the Rays can keep up with them. They're middle of the lineup with Hamilton, Beltre and Napoli have been unbelievable this month. While the starting pitching of the Rays has been their strong suit this season, the Rangers have had good starting pitching for most of the season. I think that the Rangers pitching will keep Tampa in check, while the Rangers with breakthrough with a few big innings at the plate and take the series. I hate betting against Joe Maddon, but I just think that the Rangers are better than the Rays right now. I think that the Rangers win this series in four games.
Tigers at Yankees I actually think that the Tigers could win this series. They're starting pitching has been better and more consistent than the Yankees, while their offense has been very productive. Verlander will pitch twice, in game one and in either game four or five. He will be matched up against Sabathia in game one, and possibly in his second start. CC has been just as good as Verlander this season, but hasn't been as lucky. Verlander is really good, but even the best need a little bit of luck to have a season like this one. The key to this series will be the Yankees starters other than CC. If they can just give quality starts of six innings with three or less runs, I think they can win the series. Doug Fister has been pitching well since coming over to Detroit, but what's most shocking is his strikeout rate. Since getting to Detroit, his strikeout rate is 7.3 K/9, while his walk rate is .6 BB/9. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez have had great years in the middle of the lineup. All in all, I don't trust the Yankees starters, and think that Detroit wins this series in five games.
Diamondbacks at Brewers This is the hardest series for me to get a feel for. I think both teams offenses are comparable to each other. When I look at both teams bullpens, I think that Brewers are deeper, but the back ends are comparable, which I put more value in for a playoff series. One thing that the Brewers don't have is a lefty arm in their bullpen. The only left handed Arizona hitter that scares me is Miguel Montero. Montero is a good hitter, but I think the Brewers will be able to navigate the Arizona lineup well enough to avoid putting Montero is a position to impact the game. The Diamondbacks have two starters that I can trust, while the Brewers have three. I'm not sold on Josh Collmenter or Joe Saunders, while Shaun Marcum is someone that I believe in. The Brewers defense hasn't been a problem so far this year, and I don't think that it will be exposed in a short series. I think that the Brewers take this series in five games.
Cardinals at Phillies The key thing to watch in this series is the Phillies bullpen. Antonio Bastardo had a great start, but looks to have run out of gas. Brad Lidge walks way to many people, and has gotten lucky with his strand rate. If St. Louis can get to the the Philadelphia starters and force Charlie to use his bullpen, I think the they can win this series. My biggest concerns of this series as far as St. Louis is concerned is their starers. Whenever you have Kyle Loshe starting game one of a playoff series, I raise an eyebrow. I'm not worried about whether or not Matt Holliday will be able to play. If Holliday can't go, Allen Craig will take his spot in the lineup. Craig has ben good this year, and shouldn't make a noticeable difference in a five game series. I worry that Tony La Russa will over-manage his team, and have to quick of a hook for his pitchers, and then end up with Octavio Dotel pitching to Chase Utley of Ryan Howard late in the game. I think that the Phillies will win this series in five games, possibly four.
Conference Series and World Series I'm not going to put much into this because I'm not sure what the match ups will be, but I'm predicting Tigers at Rangers and Brewers at Phillies. This leads me to believe we'll have a Rangers vs Phillies World Series, and I think that the Phillies are going to win it again.
Other Notes Much has been made in recent years about how offense is down, and teams are valuing defense more now-a-days. If you look at all of these teams that made the playoffs though, you'll notice they all can hit. San Francisco and Atlanta both have great pitching staffs, but in the end neither team could score enough to make it to the post season. I think teams are overvaluing defense, and forget that you have to score runs to win. That's what I like about what the Brewers did last offseason. They went all in this year, and the best players that they could find were offensive. They went with it and are now in the playoffs.
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