Game Seven

The Cardinals won gam seven to win the World Series over the Texas Rangers Friday night. The game was a little of a let down after the shenanigans of games five and six.  The game featured a crazy strike zone, which moved and expanded as the innings changed.

I was worried about Texas coming out of the gate flat in game seven after losing game six the way they did, but they came out ready to play. The first four Rangers hitters reached base in the top of the first inning. Only two came around to score, however, largely in part to Ian Kinsler being thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop. Chris Carpenter was up in the zone in the first inning, and his sinker was pretty flat. He managed to get through the inning only allowing two runs to score, but it could have been much worse. 

Matt Harrison started the bottom of the first by getting the first two batters he faced out. He then walked Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. With a full count and both runners on the move, David Freese doubled to center to score both runners. The first inning of game seven really represented the final few games of the series. Texas got men on, but couldn't get them around to score. St. Louis got men on base, and was more efficient in getting them around to score. 

Game Six: A Three Act Play

Oh, what a night. Game six was a thriller, in which there were five blown leads, and St. Louis came out on top. Looking back on the game, I almost see it as a three act play. The first act lasted the first six innings, where both teams had to overcome errors, managerial miscues, and missed opportunities. The second act starts in the top of the seventh, and lasts until the middle of the ninth. In this act, the Rangers take the lead, and start to close in on their first ever World Series Championship. In the third act, which starts in the bottom of the ninth, and lasts until the end of the game, the Cardinals rush back to tie the game, and the game turns into an offensive blitzkrieg until the David Freese home run ends the game. Let's break down this Shakespearian performance act by act. 

Act 1 - "Catching baseball is hard" 

In the first six innings of the game, there were five errors. Three committed by the Cardinals and one committed by the Rangers. In four of the first five innings, the Rangers got their leadoff man on either by an error or by a walk. The strike zone early on was small, Jaime Garcia was being squeezed, especially at the bottom of the zone, and this made it hard for him to be effective. The Rangers put a lot of men on base in the early innings, but struggled to get them around to score. Through the first five innings, the Rangers stranded eight base runners, and had two more erased via double plays. The Cardinals managed to score four runs during the first act, and were fortunate that they weren't losing by three or more runs. 

The Cubs New Front Office

In what was possibly the worst kept secret of the year so far, the Cubs announced Tuesday that Theo Epstein will take over as President of the club. Theo has been much heralded for what he put together in Boston over the past decade, and should bring his progressive front office style over to the National League. Progressive front offices like what Theo had in Boston, what Andrew Friedman has in Tampa, and what Billy Beane has in Oakland have been reshaping the game in the American League since the early 2000's, but the National League hasn't been as quick to adapt to these organizational philosophies.

Wednesday, the Cubs announced that Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod will join Epstein in the front office. Both Hoyer and McLeod come front he Padres organization, in what appear to be lateral moves. Jed Hoyer was the General Manager in San Diego, the same title he'll hold with the Cubs. McLeod was an assistant to the GM in San Diego, but will be head of scouting and player development with Chicago. Both Hoyer and McLeod were with Epstein in Boston, and will try to work magic with a lack-luster Cubs organization. The Cubs will send a player to be named later back to the Padres as compensation.

The outlook for the Cubs appears to be a lot brighter with their new front office. With the help of Hoyer and McLeod, Epstein took the Red Sox from a mediocre team with a well storied history of playoff heartbreaks, to a perennial playoff contender and two world championships. Moving from the American League East to the National League central, I expect that the new Cubs front office will have no trouble turning the ship around. The only question is; how long will it take. 

Three Nights in Arlington, Part 2

This is part two of a longer post, part one can be found here. 

Game Five, what a ride. Coming into the game, I was really worried for the Rangers. Chris Carpenter had been good, and C.J. Wilson hasn't been. If the Cardinals won game five, then Texas would have to beat them twice in St. Louis to win the series. Chris Carpenter pitched really well again, and C.J. Wilson really wasn't. Carpenter threw seven innings, allowed two runs, and made most of it look easy. Wilson only went 5.1 innings, and actually threw more pitches than Carpenter did, largely because of his inability to control his pitches. He walked five batters in his outing, and never got into a groove. He was constantly pitching out of the stretch, getting behind in counts, but got a few key double plays to limit the damage. The only inning that the Cardinals scored off of Wilson was the second. The inning could have been much worse, as Wilson walked the first two hitters that he faced, and had an error committed behind him. 

Both of the Rangers runs came on solo home runs by Mitch Moreland and Adrian Beltre. The Rangers never really threatened to have a big inning against Carpenter, but continually threatened to put up big innings against the Rangers. The over management of the offense by La Russa really hindered their ability to score though. Allen Craig got caught stealing twice in front of Albert Pujols, and sacrifice bunted once. In front of Pujols, you never want to give away outs, open up a base, or kill base runners with him up. Two days after he hit three home runs, trying to advance a baserunner from first to second is a risk that is totally misguided. If Albert hits a home run it doesn't matter where you are, you're scoring. If he hits a double, you still have a pretty good chance to score. The risk of an out while trying to advance a runner to second with a stolen base is not worth it. Giving away an out to advance a runner form first to second with a sacrifice bunt actually reduces your chance to win a game. 

Three Nights in Arlington, Part 1

After game three of the series, when St. Louis beat the Rangers by a score of 16-7, I didn't feel the need to write anything about it, because the game was pretty self-explanatorty. The Rangers kept throwing Albert Pujols good pitches to hit, and he continued to hit them 400+ feet. Game four was closer, with Texas winning 4-0, but I was still feeling a little lazy. I decided that after game five, I would write a longer article about the three games in Texas, but then the debacle that will go down in history as game five happened. Wow, I don't think I've ever seen anything like game five. It was the worst managed game I've ever seen. I'm going to write this, and split it up into two parts. Part one will cover games three and four, and part 2 will cover game five and all it's glory.

Game three was an exciting game, but Rangers fans won't tell you that thy enjoyed it. The Cardinals beat the Rangers by a score of 16-7. Matt Harrison started for the Rangers, and didn't have his good stuff. He left a lot of pitches in the top half of the zone, and paid for it. He only lasted 3.2 innings, and gave up five runs. After that, the Rangers bullpen kept bringing out different pitchers, but none of them could slow the Cardinals offense. Every pitcher for Texas gave up a run in game three, and every Cardinals starter had a hit, except John Jay. 

Allen Craig started the game with a bang. After knocking in runs while pinch hitting in the first two games, Craig hit a solo home run in the first inning of game three. Albert Pujols led the way though, as he had five hits in six at bats. Three of those hits were home runs, and they were all tape measure shots. He ended up five for six with four runs scored, and knocked in six.

World Series Game Two

In a total opposite showing from what was expected, the Rangers beat the Cardinals in game two by the score of 2-1. The starting pitchers dominated the game. Jaime Garcia threw seven innings is shutout ball, while striking out seven and only allowing four base runners. Garcia did a good job of getting ahead of the Rangers hitters, and then used his curveball to finish them off, generating a lot of weak contact an swings and misses. The fourth inning was the only inning where Garcia struggled, he walked the leadoff man, and gave up a single later in the inning. No runs scored, but Garcia was forced to go from the stretch, and threw 21 pitches in the frame.

Colby Lewis went 6.2 innings, and only gave up one run. He only struck out four hitters, but but come help from his defense. Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler made two great plays on balls hit up the middle. If either one of them would have went through, it could have proved to be a turning point, as there were men on base on both occasions. In game one of the series, both pitchers had good lines, but neither pitched particularly well. Both let base runners on, especially early in the game, but managed to get out of it. This game was different, as the hitters were rarely reaching base, and the early part of the game moved at a brick pace, and didn't have the same laboring feeling as game one.

World Series Game One

After two days without any baseball it's back. The World Series started with a great game in which the Cardinals defeated the Rangers 3-2. The game could have been much more high scoring, but both teams squandered scoring opportunities and gave away outs as the game was played. 

Ron Washington gave away two outs in this game with a runner on base and the middle of his lineup coming up. In the first inning, Ian Kinsler lead off with a single off the glove of David Freese. With Elvis Andrus up, Washington put on the hit and run. Andrus didn't make contact, and Yadier Molina threw out Kinsler at second base. I have no idea why Washington thought it was necessary to put this sign on. Playing for one run like that hurts your chances of winning in the first inning. With two teams with offenses like the Rangers and Cardinals have, playing for one run is the wrong move, unless it's the ninth inning, and the baserunner represents the winning run. Ian Kinsler led off the sixth inning, and again reached on a single. Washington then had Andrus bunt Kinsler to second. The game was tied at 2-2 at this point, but it's still not a situation where playing for one run helps your chances of winning the game. Kinsler was successfully moved into scoring position, but never made it home. 

The Cardinals are guilty of the same thing. In the bottom of the fifth, Rafael Furcal walked to start the inning. John Jay then sacrificed to move him over to second. This took the bat out of Albert Pujols hands, as he was intentionally walked. Matt Holliday then grounded into a double play to end the inning. When you have the middle of your order coming up, and your leadoff man is on first base, He's already in scoring position. Either Furcal of Kinsler have a good chance to score on a double, and the power in both of these lineups could easily hit one over the fence. In baseball, a team only gets 27 outs, there's no clock. Those 27 outs determine how long your teams gets to score. Giving them away is counterproductive to scoring, plain and simple. 

Preparing for the World Series

Over the weekend the Rangers and Cardinals bumped the Tigers and the Brewers from the playoffs to advance to the World Series. Both series took six games, but the winning teams were convincing in their victories.

The Cardinals pitching proved to be too much for the Brewers, as Milwaukee struggled to score off of the St. Louis bullpen. Milwaukee's defense also finally came back to bite them, as the committed nine errors in the series. David Freese stepped up in the series with a lot of big hits to propel with Cardinals past the Brewers.

Coming into the ALCS, Detroit was dinged up. Their roster was depleted, and their bullpen was lack luster sans Valverde and Benoit. The Rangers showed that they were a deeper, more complete team against the Tigers. Their starting pitching wasn't great, but their bullpen was phenomenal, and their offense came as advertised.

Looking at these two teams, the Rangers and the Cardinals, I think that the Rangers have the better overall team. Neither of these starting staffs are great, but I think that the Rangers starting pitching is deeper, while the Cardinals have the best pitcher in Chris Carpenter. The Rangers bullpen can shut a team down just as well as the Cardinals. The middle of the lineups are comparable, but Texas's lineup is much deeper. The Rangers are also a better defensive club than the Cardinals.

A Little League Championship Series Analysis

We're two games into the National League Championship Series and three games into the American League Championship Series. After a few games of these series, it's easier to see how the teams matchup, and see who's going to use their strengths, and who's weaknesses are showing.

In the American League series, Texas just looks like a much better team, with an easier path to win games against a Tigers team that just isn't healthy enough. The Tigers are currently down two games to one, but have lost Magglio Ordonez for the season. Delmon Young was also out of the lineup tonight, and Victor Martinez appeared to sustain an injury tonight. The Tigers offense isn't as deep as the Rangers, and should struggle to keep up with the Rangers offense. The Detroit bullpen is also thinner than the Rangers, and Jim Leyland only trusts Benoit and Valverde. Al Alburquerque is apparently not with the team anymore, or Leyland just chooses not to use him, even though he's probably their third best reliever.  The only thing that I believe that Detroit can match Texas with is their starting pitching. For Detroit to with this series, they need their starters to have good outings, then stretch out a few runs, and have their two relievers shut the door at the end. If Detroit falls behind in the middle innings (like in game one), or is tied (game two), they just appear to have no chance of scoring against the Texas bullpen. With Ogando in the bullpen now throwing 97, Ron Washington really doesn't have a bad option to go to. It's much like San Francisco last year. Neither Bruce Bochy for the Giants nor Ron Washington for the Rangers have a history of good bullpen management, but their general managers have built them such a great bullpen, they can't possibly make a bad choice, short of letting Mike Gonzalez face Miguel Cabrera and then Victor Martinez. The only concern in the bullpen is Koji Uehara. Uehara hasn't been great since coming over from Baltimore, and I wouldn't be surprised if Alexi Ogando takes over the seventh inning role now that Yoshinori Tateyama is on the roster and can pitch multiple innings in the middle of the game. 

National League Championship Series Preview

I guess all of this defense and run prevention isn't the way to make it to the playoffs after all. I guess you actually have to be able to hit, don't cha? I'm looking at the lineups for these teams, and the only above average defenders that I see on either roster are Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols, and Nyjer Morgan/Carlos Gomez. The rest are just bad. So we'll just start by saying that neither team has a defensive advantage.

The Brewers have home field advantage in this series, which we found out against Arizona, appears to be critical for them. The Cardinals appear to have the best pitcher in the series in Chris Carpenter, but the Brewers have the deeper staff with Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum. Both bullpens look deep enough and talented enough that they will be able to hold a lead, even if they need to pitch four or five innings.

One thing missing from the Milwaukee bullpen, however, is a lefty reliever. They have Chris Narveson, but I think that they want to save him for a long relief situation than use him as a lefty specialist. If this is the case, then I believe that the middle of the Cardinals order has the best chance to do damage late in games. The middle of the Cardinals order consists os Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday. Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and he doesn't care who pitches to him, he's got a career OPS over 1.000 against both right and left handers. While Matt Holliday isn't Albert Pujols, he's still a good hitter, and doesn't much mind facing righties of lefties. Lance Berkman is sandwiched in between Pujols and Holliday, and really likes facing righties. With the hyper managing that goes on these days though, I wouldn't think that Ron Roenicke will let Narveson pitch to either Pujols or Holliday, meaning that he would only face Berkman if he came in. Using the only pitcher in your bullpen accustomed to pitching more than one inning for a single batter isn't the wisest thing, but it might happen. 

American League Championship Series Game One

Game one of the ALCS was a very quirky game. I DVRed it so that I could watch the disaster that was the Buckeyes game. Then I had a few drinks, watched the Rangers vs Tigers game and wrote this. Much like game one of the ALDS between Detroit and New York, the weather played a huge role in the game. Also like game one of that series, both pitchers weren't sharp when they came out. 

C.J. Wilson came out for the top of the first without his command or very much on his pitches. He walked one, and allowed three base runners total in the innings. Wilson was using all of his pitches, but couldn't seem to find a handle on any of them. He threw 20 pitches in the inning, but only 11 for strikes. He looked to be doing his best "Eddie Cicotte 1919 World Series" impersonation, by working the count to two strikes, and then laying a cookie in there for them. He did get a ground ball double play to get out of the inning without any runs scoring though. Verlander, too, was off with his command. He walked two in the first inning, but also struck out two and got a caught stealing on a botched hit and run to get out of the inning. 

In the second inning Wilson let on two more base runners and continued to not look sharp. He didn't let anyone score again though to hold the score at 0-0 heading into the bottom of the second. In Verlander's half of the inning he actually appeared to be human. He wasn't spotting his fastball or curveball on the low glove side corner to hitters, and perpetually fell behind in the count. The Rangers got three hits in this inning, including a David Murphy triple, which led to two runs scoring. I noticed thatVerlander's changeup was sitting at 89mph during this inning. During the regular season, hit changeup was usually around 87mph. For this reason, I think, the Rangers were able to get some good swings on it. They weren't hitting it hard, but they were fouling it off to extend at bats. Through two innings, neither pitcher looked sharp, and they had both already walked two batters. 

American League Championship Series Preview

At first glance, it looks like Detroit would be at a big disadvantage. Texas has a deeper rotation, a better lineup, and a better bullpen. While Texas has the better overall lineup, Detroit's lineup will be almost totally right handed against the left handed starters of Texas. Delmon Young won't be playing in this series after suffering an oblique injury doing game five of the Division Series. Young was the Tiger's best hitter in the Division series, and hits lefties much better than he hits righties. With Young out, the Tiger's outfield defense will be better, which could have a big impact against a team like Texas which hits a lot of fly balls. 

The most important player for Texas is Josh Hamilton in this series. The Tigers are going to use nothing but right handed starters. The games should all be played during prime time hours since there's only one other series going on. Things are lining up for Hamilton to have a big series. The Tigers only lefties are Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke. Both can keep lefties in check, but they also can lose the strike zone and walk Hamilton as often as they get him out. Neither lefty has a 2:1 K/BB rate, and I wouldn't call either one of them a good lefty specialist. The rest of the Texas starting position players, with the exception of Mitch Moreland are right handed. In the early innings against right handed pitching, Hamilton could single handedly win game for his team with a few big hits. 

I could see Justin Verlander having a let down game in game one of the series. Verlander threw a lot of pitches in his last start. He also has been a little homer phone over the season, giving up 24 of them in 2011. Starting in Arlington against that lineup, I could see the Rangers getting four or five runs off of him. Whether his second start is in game four or game five, it'll be at home, so I would worry less about him there. 

National League Division Series: Game Fives

Arizona at Milwaukee

This game started out with both pitchers putting up zeros. Through the first three innings, there were only five total base runners. The only run was scored when Justin Upton hit a solo home run in the top of the third with a full count and two outs. Yovani Gallardo came out and put up another zero in the top of the fourth, but was working considerably harder to get outs than Ian Kennedy was. Gallardo was bouncing a lot of curveballs, getting deep into a lot of counts, and had a pitch count of 79 after his fourth inning of work. Kennedy, meanwhile, was throwing a lot of fastballs, and pounding the zone. In the fourth inning, he allowed three baseruners, and one run, but still ended the inning only haven thrown 51 pitches. Gallardo ended up going six innings, only giving up the one run. In the top of the sixth though, Gallardo should have gotten out of the inning having thrown 100 pitches, but Nyjer Morgan misplayed a ball. Gallardo was forced to throw 12 more pitches to get out of the inning, and those extra 12 pitches effectively ended his night. Kennedy also ended up going six innings, but allowed a second run in the bottom of the sixth when Braun led off the inning with a double and eventually came around to score. Kennedy was still throwing well, but was pulled after six innings with only 85 pitches.

In the seventh inning both teams went to their bullpens. Takashi Saito was the first pitcher out of the Brewers bullpen. He faced the bottom of the Diamondbacks order, and got them in order. Bryan Shaw came out of the Diamondbacks bullpen, and struck out the side in order in only 13 pitches. In the eighth inning, Francisco Rodriguez came in to hold the lead, but almost gave it away. He struggled with his command, and allowed two walks and a single. He got out of the inning though by way of two strikeouts and a groundout. Arizona was using their bullpen as if they were also winning the game, and David Hernandez was brought in for the eight. Hernandez pitched two perfect innings for the Diamondbacks and looked very good in doing so.

Tigers vs Yankees: Game 5 Long-Drawn Recap

The Tigers got after it early, with Don Kelly and Delmon Young both hitting solo home runs in the top of the first inning. After Don Kelly and Delmon Young hit home runs on back to back pitches, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez both made quick outs by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. Cabrera and Martinez are professional hitters, and I would have liked to see them be more patient and try to built Nova's pitch count, by seeing more than four total pitches. The Tigers tried to add on to their lead when Magglio Ordonez hit a leadoff double, and then advanced to third on a groundout to second by Alex Avila. He was stranded there after Jhonny Peralta grounded out to third and Ramon Santiago struck out. Both of Avila and Peralta's grounders were hit hard and could have easily been hits. Doug Fister on the other hand came out very strong. Through the first two innings, he only threw 26 pitches while striking out three, getting three ground ball outs, not walking any, and only allowing one hit.

Phil Hughes came in for the Yankees in the top of the third. Hughes came in throwing very well, sitting in the low nineties, and working mostly low in the zone. He struck out the first two he faced, although they were Austin Jackson and Don Kelly. Delmon young then hit a hard single off the right field wall, but Hughes then got Cabrera to gourd weakly to shortstop. Phil Hughes came in to start the top of the fourth, but was pulled after giving up a single to Magglio Ordonez. Boone Logan relieved Hughes and got out of the inning.

Fister got into a little trouble in the bottom of the third giving up a single to Brett Gardner and a walk to Curtis Granderson, but got Robinson Cano to fly out to Austin Jackson to get out of it. Fister started the fourth by allowing three of the first four to reach base, and load the bases. He got out of it though by getting two infield pop ups. Fister started out the fifth by getting two quick outs, but then Robinson Cano hit a solo home run to make the score 3-1 before Alex Rodriguez grounded out to end the inning.

Division Series Game Five Previews

Tigers at Yankees The game one part two rematch between Ivan Nova and Doug Fister. Fister didn't pitch as bad as his game one line shows. He still got ground balls, and struck out six in 4.2 innings. I think that if Fister comes out and pitches like that again, he will win. I don't trust Ivan Nova the second time around this Tigers lineup. If Fister keep the ball in the park, and continues to not walk anyone, he'll win the game. I think to win the game, the Yankees are going to have to show their power and hit a few home runs. The Tigers aren't built on the long ball as much as the Yankees, and with Nova's strikeout rate of under 6 K/9, I think the Tigers will be able to string some hits together and score runs early, and run Nova from the game. If I'm Jim Leyland, I would get Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta in the top third of the lineup, and make sure Justin Verlander is ready for the eight and ninth inning. I know Leyland said Verlander won't be available, but Jose Valverde has been terrible. I would have Joaquin Benoit pitch the seventh inning, and then let Verlander get the last six outs for me. I wouldn't use Valverde in Yankee stadium with how poorly he's pitched against the Yankees, because with his comments about the series not coming back to New York, the fans are going to be all over him as soon as he starts to falter.

Diamondbacks at Brewers It's difficult to find a reason to pick the Diamondbacks in this game. The home team has won each game in the series so far. Each team has a good starter for this game, with Ian Kennedy going up against Yovani Gallardo. I could see either of these starters taking over the game and singlehandedly winning the game for their team. Barring that though, I believe that the Brewers have the advantage on offense, and in the bullpen. My original prediction was that the Brewers would win this series in five games, and I going to stick with that.

Cardinals at Phillies This game has a another great pitching matchup with both teams aces on the mound. I view this game as the St. Louis 25 man roster against Roy Halladay. I think that the Cardinals have the better offense in the series, and the better bullpen. In a single game, Chris Carpenter can be just as good as Roy Halladay. Carpenter didn't pitch very well in his first start in the playoffs, but that was on short rest, and he'll be on full rest tomorrow. He has virtually no platoon split over the season either, and if he can hold serve against Roy Halladay, I think the Cardinals would have a great chance to win. I also have more faith in the St. Louis bullpen that the Philly bullpen because most of the Phillies hitters have platoon split issues, and La Russa has used his bullpen to expose them in this series by playing match ups anytime after the fifth inning. The only way I see Philadelphia winning, is if Halladay gives them eight innings and leaves with the lead to give Ryan Madson the save chance. If St. Louis gets to him early, I think that they can end the game early. Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley have been the total Philadelphia offense this series. If Carpenter can keep those two in check, he should be able to work through the rest of the order without much resistance. I picked Philadelphia in five games before the series started, and I'm not going to change when they have Roy Halladay on the mound for a series ending game, but I do see a way that St. Louis can win it.

National League Division Series Game Fours

The Wednesday games of the NLDS weren't the best games we've seen so far, but they served to get up two game fives on Friday that should be very good match ups, with each team playing to extend their season.

The Philadelphia St. Louis game was a quick one. Philadelphia game out of the gate quick, scoring two runs in the top of the first thanks to some subpar defense. John Jay lost a ball in the sun, and Lance Berkman misplayed a ball in the corner. The inning turned though when the Phillies made an out on the base paths that I think was ill advised. With Hunter Pence on first, and Ryan Howard up, Pence broke for second on the full count pitch. Edwin Jackson who is a strikeout pitcher was on the mound, with Ryan Howard who is a strikeout machine at the plate, and Yadier Molina who is the best in the league at throwing out opposing base runners. The result of the play was a strike em out throw em out double play. In the bottom of the inning though, the Cardinals benefited from the sun, when Shane Victorino got a late jump on a ball, and then made an error on a Lance Berkman RBI double. The second and third inning took a total of about eight minutes, but then the Cardinals took the lead in the bottom of the fourth. Berman and Holliday reached on a walk and a hit by pitch and then were drove in by David Freese. The pitchers then took control again until Freese hit a two run homerun in the sixth. Both pitchers were efficient, going six innings each and throwing a combined 159 pitches. Tony La Russa went to his bullpen in the seventh and played the matchups with Author Rhodes and Octavio Dotel that inning. Fernando Salas came in for the eight inning, and got into trouble, but Mark Rzepczynski came in to get Ryan Howard and end the inning. Jason Motte closed the game out in the ninth to lock up the win for the Red Birds. The game lasted under three hours, the managerial moves were quick, and they worked, to keep the game moving. David Freese was the hero for a Cardinals team that played like they wanted this game more than the Phillies. Game five should be a good one this Friday between Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay in Philadelphia. Oh yeah, Brad Lidge came in the face Albert Pujols. Albert hit the ball hard, but this didn't happen.

The Milwaukee vs Arizona game on the other hand was very long and drawn out with plenty of scoring. Both starters, Joe Saunders and Randy Wolf left after three innings. Wolf wasn't sharp, and fell behind a lot of batters, while Saunders was leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone. Both got hit hard, and gave up a combined ten earned runs. The Diamondbacks hit their second grand slam in as many games. After hitting one last night, Paul Goldschmidt had a chance to hit another tonight, but struck out, and the batter behind him, Ryan Roberts hit it instead. Jarrod Parker pitched a third of an inning. His fastball was moving, but it looked like home plate was moving on him too. He struggled with his control, throwing only four of his eleven pitches for strikes, allowing one walk and two hits before being pulled. The overall feeling that I got from the game was that both teams wanted to win this game, but the grand slam in the first inning by Arizona put the game out of reach. Milwaukee tried to get back into it, but couldn't mount a big inning to truly get them back into the contest. Arizona held a two to six run lead throughout the game, and won it easily. With the home teams winning each game of the series, along with the reputations that these teams have built throughout the year, I would have to think that the Brewers will end up winning the series on Friday, but in one game anything can happen.

My Award Ballots for the American League

If I had a vote for these awards, this is what my ballot would look like. They're based on the regular season statistics, but I couldn't care less about RBIs or Wins. I don't believe that you have to be on a winning team to win the MVP, because we have an award for team performance, it's called the playoffs. I think that a pitcher should be able to win the MVP, but as you can see, I don't think that this is the year. I'm also going to give my preseason pick for the award, what my end of the season ballot would look like, and then give a little explanation and justification for my picks.

Most Valuable Player 

Preseason Pick: Miguel Cabrera 

End of Season Ballot:

1. Jose Bautista 
2. Jacoby Ellsbury 
3. Justin Verlander
4. Curtis Granderson 
5. Miguel Cabrera 
6. Ian Kinsler 
7. CC Sabathia 
8. Dustin Pedroia 
9. Evan Longoria 
10. Adrian Gonzalez 

For me I view the American League MVP race as a two horse race. Jacoby Ellsbury might be the most complete player, but when you lead the league in slugging, and are 1 point off the lead in on base percentage, you have a good chance of getting my vote. Bautista isn't the prototypical slugger though in that he isn't a liability in the field, and isn't relegated to going station to station on the base paths. Ellsbury is a fine pick, but he's giving up about 75 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG, and I don't think that his defense makes up for that.


Cy Young 

Preseason Pick: Justin Verlander 

End of Season Ballot: 

1. Justin Verlander 
2. CC Sabathia 
3. C.J. Wilson 
4. Dan Haren 
5. Felix Hernandez 
6. Jered Weaver 

I've been a Verlander fan for a few years. This award might actually be unanimous, but if you look into the stats, Sabathia has been almost as good as Verlander this season. He doesn't have the wins, but Sabathia's xFIP is lower than Verlander's, and their BABIPs are .236 for Verlander and .318 for Sabathia. Sabathia also generated more ground balls, but Verlander can live with more fly balls in his park. This is also a two horse race, even though on the surface it looks like Verlander in a landslide.


Rookie of the Year 

Preseason Pick: Jeremy Hellickson 

End of Season Ballot: 

1. Eric Hosmer 
2. Dustin Ackley 
3. Michael Pineda 
4. Mark Trumbo 
5. Ivan Nova 

The American League Rookie of the Year had a very deep class this year. Pineda started the season very strong, but seemed to hit a wall in the second half. Mark Trumbo hit 29 home runs, but it's hard to justify a .290 OBP at first base. Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson were my choices for fifth on the ballot, but I chose Nova, because Hellickson's peripheral numbers show that he got very lucky. Ivan Nova had a good second half, and overall a better season. For the top two spots I have Hosmer and Ackley. Any advantage that Ackley had in OBP was given away to Hosmer in SLG, and whilee Ackley plays a more difficult position, Hosmer played in 38 more games, and gets my vote.


Manager of the Year 

Joe Madden 

This isn't very difficult. Madden isn't afraid to be unconventional, and gets the most out of his roster. He does't hurt his team by sacrifice bunting in the early innings. He uses his bullpen very effectively, and doesn't seem to really care about the save statistic. He does his best to put his players in a position to succeed.

My Award Ballots for the National League

If I had a vote for these awards, this is what my ballot would look like. They're based on the regular season statistics, but I couldn't care less about RBIs or Wins. I don't believe that you have to be on a winning team to win the MVP, because we have an award for team performance, it's called the playoffs. I think that a pitcher should be able to win the MVP, but as you can see, I don't think that this is the year. I'm also going to give my preseason pick for the award, what my end of the season ballot would look like, and then give a little explanation and justification for my picks.

Most Valuable Player

Preseason Pick: Troy Tulowitzki

End of Season Ballot:

1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Justin Upton
4. Joey Votto
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Roy Halladay
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. Lance Berkman
9. Prince Fielder
10. Shane Victorino

Matt Kemp had the best year in the National League, and it's not close. Hitting 39 home runs in Chavez Ravine is a great accomplishment. He struck out less and walked more. He was more efficient when stealing bases, and still plays an up the middle position. He's not a great defender, but playing a bad center field is still more valuable than playing an average corner. Ryan Braun and Justin Upton had great years but didn't match up with Kemp. Joey Votto won the MVP last year, and had another great year this year, but flew under the radar. His team didn't contend, and his home runs were down, but he still had a great year.


Cy Young

Preseason Pick: Roy Halladay

End of Season Ballot:

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Roy Holladay
3. Cliff Lee
4. Ian Kennedy
5. Chris Carpenter
6. Zack Grienke

Halladay has been really good, but Clayton Kershaw has been dominant. Kershaw allowed less than one baserunner per inning, and struck out more than a batter per inning. Halladay has benefited from a Matt Cain-ian 5.1% HR/FB rate, about half of his career rate. Cliff Lee had a good season, but had times where he was merely average, and wasn't consistent enough for me to give him the award. Ian Kennedy had a great breakout season, but wasn't nearly as dominant as the first three. Chris Carpenter took a small step back form last year with his ground ball rate, but had better strikeout and walk rates. At the end, it was another Chris Carpenter season, very good, but not Cy Young worthy. Zack had a very unlucky first half of the season, but ended with a .318 BABIP, which is about what you'd expect with that defense. He managed to take a huge leap with his strikeout rate without affecting his walk rate.


Rookie of the Year

Preseason Pick: Craig Kimbrel
End of Season Ballot:

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Brandon Beachy
3. Danny Espinosa
4. Freddie Freeman
5. Cory Luebke

I picked Kimbrel in the preseason because there weren't any position players that stood out to me. I figured that the Braves would be in a lot of close games, and Kimbrel would be a safe bet for 30 saves. He blew past that and ended up with 46. He had about as dominant a season as a relief pitcher can have. I don't believe in saves, but Kimbrel was very good, and the saves will get the vote from the old school writers. The rest of the ballot is kind of, blah. It's not nearly as deep a class as the American League crop of players.


Manager of the Year

Charlie Manual
He let his team play and didn't get in the way. He might have over used Antonio Bastardo around the all-star break, but Bastardo was his only relief pitcher at the time. Manuel gets my vote here mostly because he didn't hurt his team. I know that the post season doesn't count for these awards, but today Manuel used his closer Ryan Madson to get a five out save instead letting Brad Lidge pitch to Allen Craig and Albert Pujols.

We Lost Our First Team Today...

It came early in the day. The Rangers beat the Rays by a score of 4-3 in a game that didn't seem that close. Jeremy Hellickson only pitched four innings, and gave up three solo home runs. It seemed like the Rangers hit the ball hard all day, but a lot of balls found the Rays gloves, except the ones that went over the fence. Matt Harrison actually looked dominant for most of his five innings of work. He struck out nine, but gave up two runs. Matt Moore came in to relieve Hellickson and only allowed two base runners, although one of them was Adrian Beltre who hit his third home run of the game in the seventh inning. The Rays never really mounted a comeback, as the Rangers bullpen shut them down for the most part. The Rangers now get to wait to see if they'll play the Yankees or Tigers in the ALCS.

The Tigers and Yankees will have a game five in New York on Thursday as the Yankees took care of business tonight. The Tigers looked almost disinterested and went down with only four hits. Rick Porcello and A.J. Burnett both pitched well, and were aided by a strange strike zone. The zone looked like it extended up to the letters, and a half foot outside for both right and left handed hitters. There were some very strange calls. Burnett walked four batters in his 5.3 innings of work, but was helped by some good defense behind him. The bullpen for the Yankees was very good, and recorded six of their ten outs by strikeout. The Yankees offense tagged Porcello for four runs in six innings, but then exploded for six runs in the eight to seal the game. I think it's time that Jim Leyland starts to get some criticism for his lineup construction. His first three hitters had on base percentages of .317, .311, and .302 this year during the regular season. He admitted that he had Ramon Santiago batting second to bunt runners over. His #2 hitters job is to make outs. He also had Don Kelly, owner of a career .240/.291/.381 batting sixth in front of Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. Both Peralta and Alex Avila should be in the upper third of that lineup in front of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Alex Avila's dad is the vice president and assistant general manager, you'd think they'd be able to put their third best hitter somewhere higher in the order than 8th.

Each Team's own MVP

Here are the players that I think are the most important to their teams. I think if these players were to get hurt, it would be the worst case scenario for these teams. For Instance, The Yankees have a ton of offense, taking away Curtis Granderson or Robinson Cano wouldn't have as big an impact of taking away their only reliable starting pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks - Justin Upton 
Not my pick for NL MVP, but he's been been a force in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup all season long. He's played in 159 games, been an above average defender, and has hit the crap out of the ball. I feel like this is an obvious one that doesn't need that much defense.

Atlanta Braves - Brian McCann 
We saw that when McCann went down in lat July the Braves offense shut down. They've been a team that has struggles to score runs, and he's been the most consistent player in the Braves lineup.

Baltimore Orioles - Matt Wieters 
It's been a horrible year for the Orioles so far. They've had all of their top pitching prospects struggle, and battle injuries. Wieters has had a mini breakout year, and has quieted a lot of critics who though he might be a bust as the former number one prospect in baseball. Wieters 2011 season is also a sign that the future in Baltimore might be bright if their top talent can rebound in the coming years.

Boston Red Sox - Jacoby Ellsbury 
After a 2010 lost to injuries, the Red Sox didn't resign Adrian Beltre, moved Ellsbury back to center, and hold him not to worry about other players hit sticking him. Ellsbury had a monster season in 2011. Getting on base, hitting for power, and playing great defense.   For all of the Adrian Gonzalez MVP hype around the all star break, it seems like the league caught up to him in the second half, and his production slowed.

The Night that was October 3, 2011

Tonight had two phenomenal games in the American League Division Series. We had two one run games that were full of excitement and drama. No time for introductions, let's just get into it.

The matinee game today was Texas at Tampa. Colby Lewis started for the Rangers, and was actually perfect through the first three innings. In the bottom of the fourth though, Desmond Jennings homered to start the inning, followed by a B.J. Upton walk. I thought that the game might snowball on Lewis, but he bounced back to strikeout Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, and Johnny Damon to get out of the inning. Lewis made it through six strong innings, only giving up the Jennings home run. David Price rebounded from two bad outings in a row, and didn't allow a run through the six innings. In the top of the seventh though, he gave up three hits, including a home run, which led to three of the four runs that the Rangers scored that inning.  The Rays got the first two outs in the inning, but required three relief pitchers to get the final out. The Rays tried to come back, getting three hits in the bottom of the seventh, but they were all singles, and only led to one run, and a 4-2 score. In the next inning though, Desmond Jennings hit another home run to get the Rays back within one. Ron Washington mixed and matched with his bullpen, and only gave up one run through three innings, and took the game. The Rangers scored all of their runs in one inning, and their patient approach, and ability to hit for extra base power once again allowed them to score runs in bunches, and tonight one inning was enough. Colby Lewis is the Rangers' only right handed starter, and they needed him to come through, and he did. Matt Harrison and Jeremy Hellickson matchup in game four in Tampa tomorrow, and I expect that the Rays will have a patient approach, and be very aggressive on the bases. Harrison isn't a big strikeout pitcher, so I think that the Rays won't be afraid to go deep into counts. Harrison does generate a lot of ground balls though, so if they get on base, I expect them to run to try to stay out of the double play. Hellickson has had a very lucky year thus far, and I expect the Rangers to get to him early and have a big day offensively and end the series.

Division Series Weekend Recap

Trying to predict who's going to win a five game series is always a crap shoot. Even if the Yankees were playing the Astros in a five game series, the Yankees would only have a 65% chance to win. After he first two games of a series however, we get a better feel for how it's going to play out. All of the series are tied at 1-1, except the Arizona vs Milwaukee series.

Milwaukee looks to be the better team in this series. I thought that it would be closer, but Milwaukee looks to have the better starting pitching, better bullpen, and better offense. They only need to win one of the next three games to take the series. The only hope Arizona has is that the series now shifts back to Chase Field. Milwaukee plays much better at home than they do on the road, so I think that Arizona could get back into the series. In oder for Arizona to win the series, they need strong performances from Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter. They also need to out slug the Brewers. Milwaukee has the advantage on game three with Shaun Marcum on the hill, but if they lose that game, it's not hard to see a scenario where they also lose game four and have to win game five back at home. Overall though, Milwaukee looks like the better team, and looks like they will eventually make it to the NLCS.