The Brewers have home field advantage in this series, which we found out against Arizona, appears to be critical for them. The Cardinals appear to have the best pitcher in the series in Chris Carpenter, but the Brewers have the deeper staff with Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum. Both bullpens look deep enough and talented enough that they will be able to hold a lead, even if they need to pitch four or five innings.
One thing missing from the Milwaukee bullpen, however, is a lefty reliever. They have Chris Narveson, but I think that they want to save him for a long relief situation than use him as a lefty specialist. If this is the case, then I believe that the middle of the Cardinals order has the best chance to do damage late in games. The middle of the Cardinals order consists os Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, and Matt Holliday. Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and he doesn't care who pitches to him, he's got a career OPS over 1.000 against both right and left handers. While Matt Holliday isn't Albert Pujols, he's still a good hitter, and doesn't much mind facing righties of lefties. Lance Berkman is sandwiched in between Pujols and Holliday, and really likes facing righties. With the hyper managing that goes on these days though, I wouldn't think that Ron Roenicke will let Narveson pitch to either Pujols or Holliday, meaning that he would only face Berkman if he came in. Using the only pitcher in your bullpen accustomed to pitching more than one inning for a single batter isn't the wisest thing, but it might happen.
If Tony plays his match ups right, he should be able to use Octavio Dotel to neutralize the right handed hitters in the Brewers lineup, possibly for two innings as a time, and then use Author Rhodes and Scrabble for Prince Fielder. With all of the right handed hitters inn the Brewers lineup, we could see Octavio Dotel pitch in every game. Fernando Salas also has great numbers against rich handers this season, and could be another important pitcher in this series.
The thing that worries me about the Brewers is the bottom of their order. If Tony La Russa managed this team, he's almost be justified hitting the pitcher eighth, or seventh, or sixth. Especially since Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum are good hitters for pitchers. Between Jonathan Lucroy, Yuniesky Betancourt, and whoever plays third base for this team, you have three batters with a composite OBP of about .300. That means after the fifth hitter in the Brewers order, which is usually Rickie Weeks, you have four hitters (including the pitcher) who are essentially replacement level. Watching the Brewers, they have a very potent middle of the lineup, but it only comes up every other inning, and if you sequence outs to split it up, it's much less devastating. The Cardinals lineup on the other hand is deeper and turns over much quicker. The advantage that Milwaukee gains with their deeper lineup is neutralized by the Cardinals deeper lineup in m mind.
The way the pitching match ups look, it seems that Chris Carpenter will pitch in game three of this series, meaning he will be available to come back for game seven. This is assuming that TLR is smart enough to realize that if the Cardinals are facing elimination in game six that he shouldn't bring Carp back for it because they still has to win game seven anyway. Considering that these two teams both won nine of the 18 games that they played against each other this year, and the fact that I see them as very evenly matched, I'm gonna say that this series goes seven games. In that seventh and final game, I'm assuming Chris Carpenter is going to pitch for the Cardinals. I think that Chris Carpenter is the best pitcher in the series, so it's on these assumptions that I'm picking the Cardinals to win in seven games.
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