Offseason Notes and Thoughts 11/30/11

Now that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement has been reached, teams are figuring out the new playing field. We've seen players continue to be signed, and trades continue to be made. None of the bigger names have come off of the board, and we haven't seen any blockbuster trades, but with the Winter Meetings starting next week, we could see the action start up quickly. Never the less, here's my take on what's been going on around the league in the past week or so. 

Let's start in Cleveland, where the Indians moved Luis Valbuena to Toronto for cash. The move makes sense because Valbuena hasn't produced for the Indians at the major league level, and is at least third on their depth chart for utility infielder behind Jason Donald and Cord Phelps. Valbuena has fallen out of favor in Cleveland, and was in danger on being dropped off of their 40man roster. Toronto brings Valbuena in mostly as an insurance policy. They're likely to try and resign Kelly Johnson, or another proven free agent. But if they are unable to, Valbuena could have a shot as their opening day starter at second base. Valbuena has put of good numbers in Class-AAA for both Cleveland and Seattle, but is yet to get similar results at the major league level. 

The Rays made a tandem of moves in the past week which are joined at the hip. They sent John Jaso to the Mariners for Josh Lueke, and then replaced Jaso with Jose Molina. I like the addition of Jaso to the Mariners, as he forms a natural platoon with Miguel Olivo. Olivo is the better defender, offers more power, and bats right handed. Jaso is a left handed hitter, with fringy defense, but has better defensive skills thanks to a career 12.2% walk rate. Eric Wedge values defense at catcher, so Jaso might not get a lot of playing time to begin next season, but should eventually garner more starts than Olivo, although Olivo's defense could be substituted in at the end of games. Josh Lueke is a hard throwing right hander, and would probably be a valuable piece in any bullpen. He's a solid pitcher, who could settle into a 7th or 8th inning role with the Rays, and is under club control for a few years. Jose Molina is a typical Molina catcher. His value comes in his defense, which the Rays must believe that they need, because Jaso's offensive skills are much better. 

A Starting Plan for the Rebuilding White Sox

The Chicago White Sox can call it whatever they want, but they definitely are making the right choice by rebuilding not just the major league roster, but the organization as a whole. There are a few bad contracts on the roster that are really hampering the team. The minor league system is thin and weak thanks to their all-or-nothing strategy, which has largely blown up on them. First rounders like Jarrod Mitchell and Keenyn Walker, along with second round pick Trayce Thompson are great athletes, but have struck out in over 25% of their plate appearances in the minors. None of them have made it out of Class-A ball, and are perfect examples of the White Sox draft philosophy. Another recent first round pick, Chris Sale, will attempt to transition to the rotation, but might end up being a full-time reliever. Using first round picks on relief pitchers is never a good idea. 

The White Sox rebuilding process will look to shed payroll from the major league roster, while replenishing the minor league system. Although we tend to focus on the bad contracts on their team, they do have a few good assets who could be on the move. From the rotation, both Gavin Floyd and John Danks could find new homes this offseason. I've never been as infatuated with Danks as the rest of the league. He wears his hat crooked and had a good year in 2008. Other than that, he's a pretty average starting pitcher. There are teams still believe Danks is something more, like the Yankees. The Yankees have shown interest in Danks in the past and my first move would be to try to trade Danks to the Yankees, and see if I could pry some of their young starting pitchers of one of their young catchers away. If Danks can't be moved to the Yankees, anywhere would really do, as long as they get a decent return. Danks is still young enough where the team getting him could extend him through his prime, and still have a solid investment at worst. Gavin Floyd is a little older, but should still bring back something nice. Floyd has one year left on his current deal, and a team option for 2013. Floyd posted a 1.16 WHIP and 3.73 xFIP in 2011, and definitely has value as a right handed middle rotation starter. 

My Take on LeBlanc for Baker

In a blockbuster deal on Wednesday, the Padres acquired John Baker from the Marlins for Wade LeBlanc. I'm normally not a fan of trading away pitching depth, especially for a player with a history of injuries and has only played 39 games in the past two seasons. In this case though, I'm going to make an exception. 

The Padres are the club who I feel are in the best place to trade away pitching. I don't mean "best place" in reference to their depth, but rather their actual location. Playing half of their games in Petco Park allows the Padres to get by with lesser pitching, and also let their pitching develop at the major league level, and have some confidence that they're not going to be crushed. 

Wade LeBlanc had a good year as a 24 year old in San Diego, but the lefty has posted a 4.39 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 225.2 inning the past two seasons. He's spent time in the minors during that time, and has really been the epitome of replacement level. He's a fly ball pitcher, with average control, and only a 16.2% strikeout rate. Florida has been looking for starting pitcher, and my best guess is that they've obtained a backend starter in exchange for a player who they've not been able to rely on. 

San Diego looks at the deal as giving away a replacement level pitcher for a left handed catcher, who could help an offense that was as the bottom of the league this past season. Baker's offensive value is mostly tied up in his patient approach at the plate, as he boasts a career walk rate of 10.8%. Petco Park is known to kill left handed hitters, but Baker also has an opposite field stroke which could help to mitigate the effect of the park. 

San Diego's incumbent catcher is Nick Hundley. Hundley isn't anything special, but as a right handed hitter, he does hit lefties well. Both Hundley and Baker have a history of injuries. With one being left handed and one being right handed, they could for a suitable platoon, which could also help to keep the pair healthy. 

Florida feels like they have a good enough offense, and are expecting to get Jose Reyes to add to it. They've wanted to add pitching, but don't want to pay the big money for a free agent. LeBlanc isn't going to make a large impact, but if he can make 25 starts, and have any form of success, I think Florida will be happy. San Diego won't miss LeBlanc, and is taking a flyer to try to improve their offense. It seems like a deal that makes sense for both teams, but San Diego got the side with the higher ceiling.

A Crawford for Werth Swap

I heard in passing on the Baseball America podcast from 11/17 that the Nationals should offer to trade Jayson Werth to Boston for Carl Crawford. It sounds kind of crazy, but when you think about it, it also kind of makes sense. While neither team is thrilled with the performances that their players gave in the first year of their mega-deals, I think that both teams are too stubborn to give up on their guy after one year... but what if.

When you look at it from the players perspective, you would think that the move would have a chance to jumpstart them after down years. Crawford, who didn't seem to adapt well to the pressures of the big market, the media, and the expectation of winning, would move to Washington.  A place where the expectations are lower. He wouldn't be expected to take them to the playoffs, and could move back up to the top of the order. 

Jayson Werth, on the other hand, would move to Boston, an environment similar to that of Philadelphia, where he performed well. He could move back down in the order, where he appears more comfortable. He could drive in runs, instead of being expected to get on base and score them. He'd be a complimentary piece in Boston, and find himself in a very similar role to that of his Philadelphia days. 

Assuming that the players would respond well to the swap, the next question is; how the teams would respond? In Boston, they're now looking for a right fielder with J.D. Drew now a free agent, never to return. Werth would fit well in Boston's right field. He's a plus defender in a corner spot, and right field in Fenway is much more demanding than left. His right handed bat would also bring balance to the Red Sox lineup. 

Crawford also fits very well with what Washington seems to be doing. Bryce Harper will take over that right field job whenever he is ready, and that would force Werth out of position, possibly to a brutal center field. Crawford is a left fielder, who's defensive value would be realized in Nationals Park, instead of being muted by the Green Monster of Fenway Park. Crawford could also serve as the table setter at the top of the Nationals lineup that they've been searching for. And given the green light, could run wild in the National League. 

It's a trade that I don't think will ever be made, but we have seen teams swap bad contracts. The most recent one that comes to mind is the Mariners sending Carlos Silva to the Cubs in exchange for Milton Bradley.  After which, Carlos Silva played well for a half season.  It makes you wonder though, if each team had interest in the other player last offseason, since they seem like more natural fits in the opposite city.

Joe Nathan, MVPs, and the CBA

Joe Nathan signed with the Rangers on Monday night. The deal is two years, with a optional third year, and will pay Nathan $12.5 million. Nathan will probably be the new closer in town, with Mike Adams staying in his setup role. I like the addition for the team, but don't like the contract. Nathan will be 37 by the time next season begins, and although he came back from Tommy John surgery, and looked good in 2011, that's a lot of money for a guy in his late thirties.

One statistic that jumps out at me from 2011 is Nathan's ground ball rate. Last season his ground ball rate was 35%, his worst mark since 2004. This was mostly due to a jump in his jump in his line drive rate, which was 17.8% in 2011, and only 12.3% in 2009. His fly ball rate remained constant from 2009 to 2011, at just over 47%. Nathan posted a HR/FB ratio of 11.5% in 2011, and if he doesn't generate more ground balls in 2012, he could end up giving up too many long balls to be effective. 

Nathan's strikeout rate in 2011 was 22.5%. While that's not bad, he hadn't posted a mark below 26% since moving to the bullpen. One would think that some of those extra balls that are being put into play are going to wind up as hits, although they didn't in 2011 (.250 BABIP). Extra base runners are never a good thing, especially when you can't rely on a ground ball double play. Nathan should be a solid reliever in Texas, but I don't expect him to get back to the dominant state form his past. 

Ruben Amaro acquires Wigginton, Facepalms

Ruben Amaro continues to confuse me with the moves he makes. After signing Jonathan Papelbon, I though it meant that they'd spend what it takes to put the best team available on the field next season. This means bringing back Jimmy Rollins, trying to bring back Roy Oswalt, and getting a Michael Cuddyer type. I mean, why pay big money for a top shelf closer if you're not going all in? There's no reason to have a big name closer if you're not going to compete. Closers are a luxury, not a necessity. 

With Michael Cuddyer yet to sign, I was surprised to see the Phillies acquire Ty Wigginton this evening. Dave Cameron, from fangrpahs.com, said it pretty well on twitter, "If Michael Cuddyer couldn't hit or field, he'd be Ty Wigginton. Phillies bought the clearance version, I guess." Now, assuming that there wasn't a huge demand for the services of Mr. Wigginton, I'm not sure why the Phillies went after him without exhausting their efforts towards Cuddyer. That is, of course, unless they're trying to limit spending. In which case, they shouldn't have spent so much money on a closer. The Phillies organization doesn't seem to think before they act, and continue to perplex me. 

Wigginton will play a little in all four corner spots. He can come off the bench and pinch hit, but isn't particularly adept anywhere defensively. The move fills a need for the Phillies, as a super-sub type, but they could have done better, and come back to Wigginton as a secondary option. 

As for the Rockies, the move does a few good things for them. They'll save about $2 million. Since trading away Ubaldo, they appear to be trying to rebuild a little bit. The move clears an older player off of the roster, and make room for a younger player. Their corner infield will consist of Todd Helton at first base, with Ian Stewart and Jordan Pacheco splitting time at third. Pacheco is the only righty of the bunch, and should get starts at both first and third against lefties. He'll spell the older Helton, and hide Stewart, who posted a .336 OPS against lefties in 2010 while striking out 40% of the time. 

At the plate, Pacheco is an on base guy. In the minors his cumulative OBP was .377, but it came with just a .123 ISO. He's similar to current day Todd Helton, but has a little wrinkle. He's spent significant time at catcher during his minor league career, and will serve at the emergency catcher for the Rockies. He's not going to be someone you want behind the dish, but he'll be nice insurance in case the Rockies want to pinch hit their backup catcher, or they find themselves in some sort of pinch. 

I think from the Rockies perspective, they wanted to shed a little bit of payroll, but it also shows confidence in their young players. Especially Ian Stewart, who has a train wreck of a season in 2011. They will receive a player to be named later or cash as compensation for shedding the aging, overpaid, replacement level player to Philadelphia.

Offseason Notes 11/20/11

This past week has been an active one. None of the big names have found new homes yet, but some low key players decided on where they're going to play next year. While these guy probably won't be the their teams on their backs and carry them into October, but before last year started, we didn't think that Mike Napoli was that kind of player either. 

Let's start out in the American League Central, with a player who, in this free agent class, strikes the closest resemblance to Napoli. Ryan Doumit signed a one year deal with the Twins. This appears to be a bargain for the Twins and a great fit. Doumit signed a one year, $3 million deal with the Twins. It seems like a good price for the Twins since Doumit put up a 1.8 WAR in only 77 games last season. At the going rate, they're paying for less than one win from Doumit, as long as they can keep him on the field, he should deliver that. Doumit also has experience at both catcher and first base. While he'll probably be more of an outfield option for the Twins, having insurance for Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau is always a good thing. 

The second news item coming out of the A.L. Central is Gerald Laird signing back with the Tigers. Laird was the World Series with the Cardinals this past year, but played in Detroit in 2009 and 2010. Laird only played in 37 games last season, and with the way Jim Leyalnd used Alex Avila last season, Laird should see about six innings of work in 2012. But seriously, the Tigers are familiar with Laird, and I assume they'll get what they were looking for from Laird. 

Looking into the Future of the Washington Nationals

The other day, one of my friends asked me how I feel about the Nationals organization. Off of the top of my head I knew that they had a lot of good young talent, a few solid pieces at the major league level, and seemed to have brighter days ahead of them. When I really looked at what they had down on the farm, I really liked what I saw. 

Much like what the Rays have done, The Nationals have leveraged their recent suckitude to acquire a lot of top ten picks in the past decade. Along with a few trades, they've built a fairly strong farm system. They got lucky in the sense that the two years that they got the number one overall pick, there were clearcut number one overall talents available for them to draft. To their credit though, they picked these player, and spent the money required to sign them. The first of these two picks, Stephen Strasburg, has ace potential, but is coming off of injury. His 2012 season will probably look similar to what we saw in 2011 from Jordan Zimmermann. They probably won't be competing for anything, and will limit his inning to set him up for a full work load (or something close to it) in 2013. Twenty thirteen is also when I expect Bryce Harper, their other number one overall pick, to be ready for a full time role on the team. Harper advanced to Class-AA in 2011, and just finished tearing up the Arizona Fall League for the second straight year. He should start 2012 in AA, and will probably finish out the minor league season in AAA. He could get a cup of coffee in the Bigs next September, but nothing more. 

Harper and Strasburg represent the core of the future of this organization, but the organization offers much more than that. At the big league level, they have a nice core on offense and defense. Ryan Zimmerman has been the face of the organization in recent years, and hasn't had much support. Zimmerman spent some time on the disabled list in 2011, but the Nationals offense still put up good numbers. 

Matt Kemp's New Deal Seems Fair to Both Sides

Just a few hours after posting an earlier post today, Matt Kemp and the Dodgers agreed to a eight year $160 million extension. It had been rumored around on Monday, but wasn't official. Since then, I've spent some time looking at the deal, and the player, and actually think it's a pretty fair deal for both sides.

I like the deal from the Dodgers perspective because in an offseason where they aren't aloud to talk with free agents (at least not until they find a new owner), locking up Kemp was most likely at the top of their priority list. The signing is the first bright spot for the Dodgers fans in a while, and adds stability and cost certainty for whoever ends up buying them. 

On the player side, Kemp's average annual value (AAV) will be $20 million for the duration of the contract. To compare Kemp's deal to others, we need to only look at extensions, and not players on the open market. Players getting extensions are only negotiating with one team, and are generally younger than those hitting free agency. Some similar situations to Kemp's are Troy Tulowitzki's with the Rockies, Adrian Gonzalez's with the Red Sox, and Miguel Cabrera's with the Tigers. All these players got extensions for similar AAV, and are locked up into the mid thirties. They all have had great careers so far, and have produced after signing their big deal. The difference for the Dodgers is that Kemp has really only had one MVP caliber year. 

Offseason Notes and Thoughts 11/14/11

Over the past week a few newsworthy things have transpired. There have been a few signings, a notable hiring, and continued speculation over whether or not the Marlins will be able to keep their 2012 payroll below that of the Yankees. Of the three big moves made in the past week, I like one of them, but I'm not too big on the other two. 

The Aaron Hill signing was I thought a great move by the Diamondbacks. Hill got two years and $11 million from Arizona, who locked him up for his age 30 and 31 seasons. He seems to fit the mold of what Arizona has been going for under their new regime. Hill isn't a big walk guy (career 6.6%), but also isn't a big strikeout guy (career 13.1%). He's very dependent on BABIP to be productive, and has gotten very unlucky in the past two seasons with a .233 BABIP. Part of that can be justified by his high fly ball rate, and especially his infield fly ball rate. He's shown himself to be a slightly above average defender throughout his career, and should continue to be for the length of the contract. Hill's power is a little perplexing, as it seems to come and go from season to season. Over the past four years his ISO has been .098, .213, .189, and .110 in 2011. His ISO was .177 in his short stint in Arizona last season, and Chase Field could prove to be a friendly park for the fly ball happy second baseman. The Diamondbacks payed for a player who's only slightly better than one win above replacement for each of the two years of the deal. In Hill's past two seasons his WAR has averaged out to one, even with his atrocious BABIP. A decent defender with any sort of regression from his BABIP should turn out to be a good deal for Arizona, and leave Hill young enough to get another decent deal afterwards if his performance justifies it. 

Offseason Notes and Thoughts 11/9/11

With baseball season being over, football only being played on weekends, and basketball still irrelevant, I've spent a lot of time poking around the internet trying to get a feel for the offseason. We've only seen a few things happen, as teams are testing the waters, and waiting for the big fish to land before the smaller ones fall into place. I mean, why would a team make a strong play for Michael Cuddyer while Carlos Beltran is still available. 

I want to start in Texas, where their hole at first base is glaring. It was shown all during the season, and during the playoffs. Michael Young was great at the plate in 2011, hitting .338/.380/474. But in the previous five season, he only hit .303/.352/.446. I think 2011 was an aberration, and Young, going into 2012 at age 35, will see a dip in production. Young's defense is also well below average at first base, as well as other positions. Mitch Moreland, the other option currently on their roster, was basically terrible after May this past year. Even batting ninth, the Rangers can't justify not upgrading the position. 

Texas is setup to win in the near future, and has a farm system is deep, which provides optimism that they contend for the next decade. The Rangers will probably be in on the two big first basemen this off season, but I don't think they'll commit to a monster contract that has a large chance of blowing up on them towards the end. If they can offer either Pujols or Fielder a five or so year deal, I think that they should do it. If both guys ask for and get offers of eight or so years, I would be hesitant to match that. In that case, I think that they would be fine with Carlos Pena. They could probably get Pena with a one year deal, and definitely get him with a two year deal. Pena is a left handed bat who could help balance out their lineup. He wouldn't be as expensive as the two big guys, and he's also a very good defender. When paired with Beltre, Andrus, and Kinsler, the Rangers would have the best defensive infield in baseball. The Rangers should go for a big first baseman, but Pena wouldn't be a bad alternative. With Michael young being right handed, he could spell Pena against tough lefties, while splitting time at DH and the other infield spots. I think Pena's bat would play well in Texas with the jet stream that blows out to right center. 

A Perfectly Sabean Trade

This afternoon the Kansas City Royals sent Melky Cabrera to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo. The Giants are in need of offense, and have a deep pitching staff. The Royals have a lot of hitting talent, and much of it in the outfield, but don't have a very deep rotation. This trade appears to make both teams better, but underneath the surface it's hard to decide who got the better end of the deal.

On the surface, it looks like the Royals are selling high on Melky Cabrera and buying low of Jonathan Sanchez. Melky is coming off of the best season of his career at age 26. He hit .305 and had a respectable .164 ISO, but those are really the only highlights. His walk rate was the lowest of his career, at 5%. That led to a pedestrian .339 on base percentage. He's also a below average defender in center, which could be a problem in the spacious Pac Bell Park. He doesn't really profile as a corner outfielder, and it look like the Giants will already have a log jam at the corner spots anyways. For the Royals, they sold on Cabrera at the perfect time. His value will never be higher, and they have a replacement in the form of Lorenzo Cain at Northwest Arkansas who appears to be ready to step into Cabrera's starting spot.

Like Cabrera, Jonathan Sanchez has also only had one good season. His career year, however occurred in 2010. Sanchez has been in the Giants rotation for four years now, and we all know his profile. He's got great stuff, but doesn't always know where it's going. When he can keep his stuff in or near the zone, he can be great, but evident by his career walk rate of 4.78 BB/9, he often struggles with his command. Sanchez had a down year in 2011, and it was mostly due to his walk rate, which was 5.85 BB/9. Kansas City is gambling that they can help Sanchez to harness his ability. It's not impossible for a pitcher to tweak his delivery, or figure something out and improve his command, but as Oliver Perez has shown us, it's not easy. 

What I'll be looking for in the new MLB CBA

With the NFL and NBA both having lockouts this year, and the NBA recently announcing that they will miss the first part of the season, it's gone somewhat under the radar that the MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement is set to expire on December 11th of this year. It's not as big a story as in the NFL simply because of the popularity of the NFL. It's not as big a story as the NBA because the NBA is in real trouble. It's still important in it's own right though, because it will change the landscape on which the 30 teams in the MLB operate. I'm not a an expert on all things CBA and don't know many details about the finer points of the agreement, but there are a few things that I will look for the new one is announced.

I really hope that the playoffs aren't expanded. I think that there are too many teams in as of now. St. Louis won the World Series from the wildcard spot, but they weren't the best team this year. They just got hot at the right time, and Ron Washington didn't want his team to win it. The more teams that you add to the playoffs, the less drama it will create for the stretch run in September. The more teams that make the playoffs, the earlier the best teams in the league will clinch and start resting their players. The races will then take place between more average teams instead of the better teams. The closer to the median of the league, the more likely it is that there will be in a tie. Tie breaker games are great at all, but in the proposed new system, there will be a one game playoff between the two wild card teams. In the new system, the second best team in the league can win a wild card spot, and play the fifth best team. Having a 162 game season decided by a one game playoff which could eliminate the second best team in the league sounds like a terrible idea. The media will also have a field day the first time either the Red Sox or Yankees win over 100 games, and then lose in a one game playoff to an 85 win Angels or Twins team. 

Gold Glove Awards for 2011

Here are my selection for the Gold Gloves for 2011. They're based on what I saw over the course of the season, with some input of the defensive metrics. Unlike the real Gold Glove awards, I do not take offense into consideration. I also skipped the pitcher's category, because I didn't have any way of evaluating them, and wouldn't have had any confidence in anyone that I chose. A new thing this year is separating the outfielders into left, center and right, instead of any three outfielders regardless of position.

The awards are announced tonight.  I don't expect my choices to match the ones that we will see tonight, because a lot of the managers who vote for these awards don't really base them on defense, but use the award as more of a popularity contest.  Here's what I came up with.