Much like what the Rays have done, The Nationals have leveraged their recent suckitude to acquire a lot of top ten picks in the past decade. Along with a few trades, they've built a fairly strong farm system. They got lucky in the sense that the two years that they got the number one overall pick, there were clearcut number one overall talents available for them to draft. To their credit though, they picked these player, and spent the money required to sign them. The first of these two picks, Stephen Strasburg, has ace potential, but is coming off of injury. His 2012 season will probably look similar to what we saw in 2011 from Jordan Zimmermann. They probably won't be competing for anything, and will limit his inning to set him up for a full work load (or something close to it) in 2013. Twenty thirteen is also when I expect Bryce Harper, their other number one overall pick, to be ready for a full time role on the team. Harper advanced to Class-AA in 2011, and just finished tearing up the Arizona Fall League for the second straight year. He should start 2012 in AA, and will probably finish out the minor league season in AAA. He could get a cup of coffee in the Bigs next September, but nothing more.
Harper and Strasburg represent the core of the future of this organization, but the organization offers much more than that. At the big league level, they have a nice core on offense and defense. Ryan Zimmerman has been the face of the organization in recent years, and hasn't had much support. Zimmerman spent some time on the disabled list in 2011, but the Nationals offense still put up good numbers.
Around the infield, they appear to have two good pieces, and two pieces that could be in flux. Ryan Zimmerman is signed through 2013, and if the team is showing promise entering the 2013 season, they could try to sign him to a deal similar to what Matt Kemp recently got. Zimmerman has the reputation of a fantastic defender, but was slowed this past year by injuries. He's also a threat with the bat, posting wOBA's of .377 and .389 in 2009 and 2010. If he comes into 2012 fully healthy and returns to form, it would be a big relief for the Nationals. Their other infield piece that I like is Danny Espinosa (or Espinoza if you're part of the BBWAA). Espinosa came up through the system as a shortstop, but has been blocked by Ian Desmond. Espinosa strikes out too much to ever hit for a high average, but walks enough to keep his on base percentage respectable. He has above average power for a middle infielder, with an ISO of .186 through the first 676 at bats of his career. I would like to see Espinosa get the chance to move to shortstop, where I think he can be average, and has a chance to be above average. This would also allow Desmond to move to second base, where his defense could possibly rate as average. I also see Espinosa having more of a future with the club than Desmond, and think that putting Espinosa at a position with less risk of injury would be a good move for the long run.
Right now the Nationals have Desmond and Michael Morse to play middle infield and first base respectively. Washington should look to upgrade both positions, because I don't see Desmond as being a big league regular on a contending club, and don't fully believe in Morse. Desmond is a below average regular, who has struggled to post a .300 OBP in the majors for his first two plus seasons. His defense rates as below average, and his overall game reminds me of Yuniesky Betancourt with a little bit more speed. This past year, the Nationals drafted Anthony Rendon with their first round pick. Rendon was a third baseman in college, but the Nationals are going to attempt to move him to second. If he can make the move successfully, he could have the opportunity to play at the keystone by late 2013. Morse, already 29, is a bad defender anywhere you put him, but put together a good season in 2011. After a terrible start to the season in the outfield, he moved to first base after the Adam LaRoche injury and turned on the offense. LaRoche missed most of 2011 due to a shoulder injury, and if he recovers, he's signed for 2012, and his left handed bat could form a decent compliment to the right handed hitting Morse at first base. Shoulder injuries can be tricky though, and I wouldn't expect LaRoche, who will be 32 next year, to return as much more than replacement level. In the long run though, I think the club will be in the market for a middle infielder and first baseman.
Their outfield of the future looks to be bright with Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth in the corners, and a center fielder who's currently part of the organization. They've made no secret of the fact that they've been looking for an impact center fielder for about six months now. Before the trade deadline, the Nationals were linked to both Colby Rasmus and B.J. Upton. I still think that they could be Upton's next team, either by trade or free agency. An outfield of Werth, Upton, and Harper starting in 2013 projects to be above average both offensively and defensively. Werth had a down year in 2011. He was overpaid when he got his huge contract, and won't live up to it. His last three years in Philadelphia he was a five win player, and should be able to be at least a three win player for a few more years, which is better than a big league regular.
At catcher they seem to be set. They have Wilson Ramos right now, and have Derek Norris in the minors. Ramos, of much recent fame, is still only 23, and appears to have a bright future. He can hit for a solid average, and has decent walk and strikeout rates. He shows decent power, while playing above average defense. He probably won't make any all-star teams, but should be a consistent three win player. I think that Derek Norris, though, has a chance to be special. Norris, much like Harper, is doesn't hit for much average, but has always shown a great eye at the plate and good power. After having solid seasons at the Class-A level in 2008 and 2009, Norris struggled with injuries in 2010. He rebounded to have a decent year at AA this past year, but needs to cut down on his strikeout rate. Norris has showed the ability to halt the running game in the minors, but still needs more time in the minors to work on his game calling and receiving. He has the upside to be an all-star at the major league level, but also has a scary strikeout rate, which could ultimately sabotage his career.
That brings us to the pitching staff. With the recent history of Tommy John surgery, there's no reason so suspect that Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann won't get the chance to live up to their full potential. Zimmermann took a promising first step in 2011, and had a great year. If he could recover some of his lost strikeout rate (6.92 K/9 in 2011 versus 8.8 K/9 previously), he should be a very effective number two behind Strauburg. Strasburg will see his his workload nursed in 2012, but should close to 100% by the start of 2013. Filling in the rest of the rotation is where things get interesting. And the interesting starts with Tom Milone. He is perceived as a soft tossing lefty, with his average fastball velocity in 2011 being only 87.8mph. However in a full year in Class-AA in 2010, he posted a strikeout rate of 8.8 K/9. In 2011 in 148.1 innings in AAA he posted a strikeout rate of 9.4 K/9. His minor league strikeout for his career is over eight, and I think that there's more strikeout potential here than most people think. If he can keep his strikeout rate consistently above seven without losing his great control (career 1.5 BB/9 in the minor leagues), I think he could be a good number three starter. From there I think that they have enough talent at the major league level (John Lannan, Craig Stammen, Ross Detwiler, Chein-Ming Wang), and enough kids in the minors (A.J. Cole, Sammy Solis, Yunesky Maya, Brad Peacock, Alex Meyer, Matt Purke) that they should be able to fill out the back end of the rotation, and build depth in case of injury.
The bullpen will be anchored in the backend by Drew Storen for the foreseeable future. I like Storen, and think he will have a solid carer, but the Nationals need to stop drafting relief pitchers in the first round. 2008 was Chad Cordero's final year with the Nationals, and he was terrible. That same year, they drafted Storen with the tenth overall pick. Drafting a relief pitcher in the first round is a short sighted move. The player is usually quick to the majors, but you can't expect to get more than a 15 career WAR from the pick, but that's a topic for a different post. With Storen at the backend, and Tyler Clippard under control until 2016, one would think that with the Nationals abundance of arms in the minors that they could put together at least a leave average bullpen.
The Nationals future appears to be a bright one, and I think that they could compete for the division as soon as 2013. The Phillies core will be two years older by that point, and the Mets will probably be in a full rebuilding mode. Assuming the Marlins don't spend $2 billion in free agency this offseason, I don't see them being a juggernaut in the division. The Braves appear to be the Nationals biggest division obstacle in the future. The Braves boast a plethora of young pitching, and a mediocre offense. With their pitching depth though, they should be looking to trade for offense, and could make a move for an impact bat.
The Nationals need to fill a few holes on their roster to complete their transition to being competitive. They need to find a center fielder, fill a hole or two in the infield, and figure out their pitching staff. But they do have impact players both on the mound and in the field, and plenty of talent in their system. With a fully healthy Strasburg, Bryce Harper being major league ready, and development from the rest of their young core, I think 2012 could be the first year that they post an above .500 winning percentage since moving from Montreal, and 2013 could be the year they breakout and approach 90 to 95 wins.
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