I like the deal from the Dodgers perspective because in an offseason where they aren't aloud to talk with free agents (at least not until they find a new owner), locking up Kemp was most likely at the top of their priority list. The signing is the first bright spot for the Dodgers fans in a while, and adds stability and cost certainty for whoever ends up buying them.
On the player side, Kemp's average annual value (AAV) will be $20 million for the duration of the contract. To compare Kemp's deal to others, we need to only look at extensions, and not players on the open market. Players getting extensions are only negotiating with one team, and are generally younger than those hitting free agency. Some similar situations to Kemp's are Troy Tulowitzki's with the Rockies, Adrian Gonzalez's with the Red Sox, and Miguel Cabrera's with the Tigers. All these players got extensions for similar AAV, and are locked up into the mid thirties. They all have had great careers so far, and have produced after signing their big deal. The difference for the Dodgers is that Kemp has really only had one MVP caliber year.
The Dodgers are betting that Matt Kemp's 2011 season was the real deal, and his 2010 was a fluke, and not the other way around. Kemp had a disastrous 2010. His strikeout rate was the highest of his career, he wasn't efficient on the bases, and had a horrific year in the field, rating well below average for a center fielder by all metrics. 2011 showed a reduced strikeout rate, which correlated with a jump in his walk rate. He was more efficient on the bases, and was only slightly below average on defense. He hit for more power with a .262 ISO, and had all of his rate stats bumped up by a generous .380 BABIP. He has a career .352 BABIP, and during his down 2010, he say his BABIP drop to .295, the lowest of his career. The strikeout rate he posted in 2011 seems legit, but his walk rate appeared to be a little inflated. He set a personal high with 74 walks, but because no one was getting on base in front of him, and there wasn't a threat behind him, a third of his walks(24) were intentional.
His inflated BABIP isn't repeatable, but he has the speed, hits for enough power, and hits enough ground balls that he should be able to maintain a BABIP between .330 and .350. The regression in his BABIP, along with fewer intentional walks should bring his OPS down. While it doesn't look like he'll repeat his .976 OPS again, He should be able to post seasons close to .900 as he enters his prime.
Getting a .900 out of a franchise center fielder is great, but how much longer will Kemp be able to stay in center field? He's shown below average defensive numbers throughout his career, and while the Dodgers signed him to play centerfield, he'll likely have to move off of the position at some point. I imagine he'll play another three or four seasons in center before he's pushed over to a corner. His arm appears to be strong enough to play right field, and if the Dodgers are concerned with defense at a future point, I'm sure they won't mind moving Andre Ethier over to left field if he's still with the club.
Overall, I think Kemp should live up to his end of the deal. At the going rate for wins above replacement, Kemp needs to put up about a 4.5 WAR throughout the length of the contract to justify the deal. He put up an 8.7 WAR in 2011 (per fangraphs), which is MVP caliber. In 2009, Kemp put up a 5.2 WAR with a .297/.352/.490 line while playing average defense in center field. I think Kemp could put up similar numbers in the future with below average defense in center, or above average defense in a corner. This should put him right around the 5 win mark, and should justify the contract.
Now all the Dodgers need to do is find an owner and get to work locking of Clayton Kershaw to a long term deal. It also wouldn't hurt if they would someone to bat behind Kemp, because I don't think teams are going to fear any combination of Juan Rivera, Jerry Sands, Juan Uribe, or James Loney.
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