The Aaron Hill signing was I thought a great move by the Diamondbacks. Hill got two years and $11 million from Arizona, who locked him up for his age 30 and 31 seasons. He seems to fit the mold of what Arizona has been going for under their new regime. Hill isn't a big walk guy (career 6.6%), but also isn't a big strikeout guy (career 13.1%). He's very dependent on BABIP to be productive, and has gotten very unlucky in the past two seasons with a .233 BABIP. Part of that can be justified by his high fly ball rate, and especially his infield fly ball rate. He's shown himself to be a slightly above average defender throughout his career, and should continue to be for the length of the contract. Hill's power is a little perplexing, as it seems to come and go from season to season. Over the past four years his ISO has been .098, .213, .189, and .110 in 2011. His ISO was .177 in his short stint in Arizona last season, and Chase Field could prove to be a friendly park for the fly ball happy second baseman. The Diamondbacks payed for a player who's only slightly better than one win above replacement for each of the two years of the deal. In Hill's past two seasons his WAR has averaged out to one, even with his atrocious BABIP. A decent defender with any sort of regression from his BABIP should turn out to be a good deal for Arizona, and leave Hill young enough to get another decent deal afterwards if his performance justifies it.
The first of two deals that I'm not in favor of is the Papelbon deal. I wrote last week about Philadelphia throwing money at Madson being a bad idea, and they ended up throwing more money at a player who I feel is inferior to Madson. I know people are going to say "look at how many saves Papelbon has, how can you think that Madson is better?!?!?!!?" But considering the park, I think Madson was a better fit for the Phillies. Citizens Bank Park is a small park that has a history of turning fly balls into home runs at a high rate. I think we've all seen enough primetime games to know that Papelbon likes to rely too heavily on his fastball, and works high in the zone more than he should. His career fly ball rate is 44.1%. Madson works lower in the zone, mixes in his good changeup more limits fly balls. His career fly ball rate is 32%. Papelbon has cut down his fly balls in recent years, but has only finished a season under 40% once. Papelbon is a good relief pitcher, but I don't think his profile fits the park, unless the Phillies are going to make him work lower in the zone, and utilize his splitter better.
The contract is also an abomination. Teams obviously haven't learned their lesson about signing a relief pitcher to long term/high price deals. Ask Toronto about B.J. Ryan. Relief pitchers performance varies more from year to year than any other position on the field. Signing a guy to that sort of deal to work into hi mid thirties has a high chance of blowing up in Ruben Amaro's face. When offering these sort of deals, especially to pitchers, teams don't seem to ever account for any sort of risk. Whether it's Carl Pavano's shoulder, John Lackey's elbow, or Alex Rodriguez's hip, we've seen guys signed in to long term deals, and not live up to them due to injury and decline. It's clear that the Philies are trying to push for another championship while Chase Utley is still around, and they have Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in their primes, but in three or four years, there is going to be a lot of dead weight on this roster.
The Cardinals finally found their new manager in the form of Mike Matheny. Matheny played for the Cardinals in the early 2000's, but was never much of a player. He was a serviceable backup catcher, and like a lot of them do, turned his energies towards managing. I don't like this move on the surface because Matheny doesn't have any experience coaching or managing at any professional level. He's spent the last few years being a special advisor to the organization, but doesn't appear to have done much coaching. He's going to have a good team to work with, even if they do lose Albert, but I think his best chance to succeed will be fill our his coaching staff with smart people. I think having a good cast of coaches can disguise some of the warts Matheny may have as a first time manager.
One player who I don't think is getting enough attention this offseason is Ryan Doumit. In a time where teams are struggling for offense, Doumit represents a player who put up a .303/.353/.477 line this past year. Although he's oft injured, and only played in 77 games last season, he's shown power throughout his career, and is somewhat versatile defensively. I think he'd be a great fit for a National League team looking for a corner guy who can play right field, first base, and serve as a backup catcher. I think Doumit could be used to spell a number one catcher once or twice a week, and handle 50 or so games behind the plate per year. He doesn't have the prowess or injury history of someone who you'd sign to be a number one catcher, but in the right role, I think he could be a good piece. I'd much rather have Doumit than a player like Rod Barajas or most of the other backup catchers on the market.
My Take on the Browns:
"Cleveland - Where offense goes to die," should be our new slogan. I still maintain my stance that Phil Dawson is our best player, even though he missed his final field goal attempt. And there you have it, short and bitter.
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