I want to start in Texas, where their hole at first base is glaring. It was shown all during the season, and during the playoffs. Michael Young was great at the plate in 2011, hitting .338/.380/474. But in the previous five season, he only hit .303/.352/.446. I think 2011 was an aberration, and Young, going into 2012 at age 35, will see a dip in production. Young's defense is also well below average at first base, as well as other positions. Mitch Moreland, the other option currently on their roster, was basically terrible after May this past year. Even batting ninth, the Rangers can't justify not upgrading the position.
Texas is setup to win in the near future, and has a farm system is deep, which provides optimism that they contend for the next decade. The Rangers will probably be in on the two big first basemen this off season, but I don't think they'll commit to a monster contract that has a large chance of blowing up on them towards the end. If they can offer either Pujols or Fielder a five or so year deal, I think that they should do it. If both guys ask for and get offers of eight or so years, I would be hesitant to match that. In that case, I think that they would be fine with Carlos Pena. They could probably get Pena with a one year deal, and definitely get him with a two year deal. Pena is a left handed bat who could help balance out their lineup. He wouldn't be as expensive as the two big guys, and he's also a very good defender. When paired with Beltre, Andrus, and Kinsler, the Rangers would have the best defensive infield in baseball. The Rangers should go for a big first baseman, but Pena wouldn't be a bad alternative. With Michael young being right handed, he could spell Pena against tough lefties, while splitting time at DH and the other infield spots. I think Pena's bat would play well in Texas with the jet stream that blows out to right center.
On a different note, I don't like what the Phillies are doing. They seem to be throwing money around like the Yankees recently. They gave Ryan Howard that crazy extension last offseason, and they seem set to spend this offseason too. The Phillies are trying to keep the gang together, and make another run at the title with their current group of veterans. The team has gotten older and slower in recent years, but the rotation has the ability to hold them up. They seem set on bringing Ryan Madson and Jimmy Rollins back, and spending a lot of money in the process. They've been linked to Madson via a four year $44 million contract. That's a lot of money for a relief pitcher, and a lot of years for a relief pitcher already in his thirties. It also appears that they'll bring Jimmy Rollins back. Rollins is a shortstop, who's lost a step, and is an average defender at this point. He'll be 33 next season, and has battled let injuries in the past few seasons. Rollins has showed decline in the past few years, and going into his mid thirties, he's going to be a defensive liability. A team who gives him a three or four year deal is going to need to have a backup plan in case of injury, and a plan to move him off the position when that time comes. His offense has also fallen off as he's mode into his thirties. In the past three years, he's put up a combined .255/.316/.403 line. He doesn't merit being at the top of the order anymore, and should be moved don to the seven or eight spot in a National League lineup.
The Mets seem to be in a weird position. They don't seem to be going after Jose Reyes at all. It makes me wonder why they didn't trade him at the deadline if they're not going to try to bring him back. If they aren't going to try to bring Reyes back, it would appear that they're going into full rebuilding mode. In that case, it seems that they should move David Wright this offseason too. Wright has two years left on his contract, but the final year is voided if he's traded. This creates a scenario where if the Mets wait until midseason to trade him, they won't get much back, since it'll only be a two month rental. Wright is coming off of a down year, but I think some teams will look past that with his reputation and the lack of options at third base. If the Mets get a good offer from him, they should move him. Wright is no longer an above average defender, and his strikeout rate has jumped in the past three years. His defensive problems are probably a combination of age and injuries, but with his history of back issues, I don't expect them to improve. The repercussions form his strikeout rate haven't been realized until this year because of an inflated BABIP. This year, with a reasonable BABIP of .302, we saw his average drop to .254. That average, down from .305 in previous seasons, has drug his on base percentage down 40 points, and his slugging average down 75 points. David Wright isn't the player he used to be, and while his value is low after a down year, his value to the Mets only has the potential to drop more if they don't intend to lock him up past 2013.
There's been a lot of talk about the Marlins possibly making a big splash by signing either Prince Fielder, or more likely, Albert Pujols. I understand that the Marlins want to sign a star player to open up their new stadium with. And I understand that a Latin player would be preferable because of the Latin community in Miami, but going after either of the first baseman would only be the start of a chain reaction in Florida. The Marlins already have Gaby Sanchez at first base and Logan Morrison playing out of position in left field. Bringing in either Fiedler or Pujols would mean Sanchez has to be moved, and probably Morrison too. Morrison doesn't look good as an outfielder, and has already had run-ins with ownership. A player like Jose Reyes would make much more sense for them. Reyes is from the Dominican Republic, and by all accounts is good friends with the Marlins current shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Hanley isn't much of a shortstop defensively, and would likely be transitioned to the outfield.
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