On the surface, it looks like the Royals are selling high on Melky Cabrera and buying low of Jonathan Sanchez. Melky is coming off of the best season of his career at age 26. He hit .305 and had a respectable .164 ISO, but those are really the only highlights. His walk rate was the lowest of his career, at 5%. That led to a pedestrian .339 on base percentage. He's also a below average defender in center, which could be a problem in the spacious Pac Bell Park. He doesn't really profile as a corner outfielder, and it look like the Giants will already have a log jam at the corner spots anyways. For the Royals, they sold on Cabrera at the perfect time. His value will never be higher, and they have a replacement in the form of Lorenzo Cain at Northwest Arkansas who appears to be ready to step into Cabrera's starting spot.
Like Cabrera, Jonathan Sanchez has also only had one good season. His career year, however occurred in 2010. Sanchez has been in the Giants rotation for four years now, and we all know his profile. He's got great stuff, but doesn't always know where it's going. When he can keep his stuff in or near the zone, he can be great, but evident by his career walk rate of 4.78 BB/9, he often struggles with his command. Sanchez had a down year in 2011, and it was mostly due to his walk rate, which was 5.85 BB/9. Kansas City is gambling that they can help Sanchez to harness his ability. It's not impossible for a pitcher to tweak his delivery, or figure something out and improve his command, but as Oliver Perez has shown us, it's not easy.
I like the deal more from the Royals side than the Giants. I think Melky's 2011 season was his ceiling, he's never projected to be more than a fourth outfielder, and I think he could be a disaster in the outfield in San Francisco. I don't think that we've seen Jonathan Sanchez's ceiling yet. His 2010 was good, but I think he can do better. Throughout his career he's struggled with control, not gotten as many ground balls as you'd like to see, and hasn't really had an offering to consistently get right handed hitters out. Even though Sanchez will be 29 next season, I still think that he's not a finished product. Cliff Lee's breakout year with the Indians didn't come until he was 29. I don't think Sanchez will blossom into a Cy Young contender, but I think he could put up a few seasons with a 3 WAR. He'll be a free agent after 2012, so look to see if Kansas City locks him up for a few years during the season if he has success.
Ryan Verdugo is a lefty who spend 2011 at Class-AA at age 24. He's left handed, and while he's been starting in the minors, projects to be a power lefty out of the bullpen at the Major League level. He has a fastball and slider combination that is very tough on lefties. He's a nice piece to have, as I think that Kansas City is looking to amass as much pitching as they can at this point, and see what sticks.
Melky Cabrera probably isn't long for San Francisco. The Giants drafted Gary Brown in the first round in 2010. He's a true center fielder who can fly in the outfield and on the bases. Although thought to be a defensive player, Brown had a god offensive season in High A is 2011, hitting .336/.407/.519. His line is inflated partly due to a .369 BABIP, but it was still a good year. If Melky is still in town when Brown is ready, they'll have to make room. I doubt Melky lasts that long though, as I think he'll struggle offensively and defensively in San Francisco. I think Melky has a chance to be Aaron Rowand part two in San Francisco.
Other Notes:
Jim Thome signed back with the Phillies after spending most of the past six years exclusively as a DH. I suppose Thome and John Mayberry Jr. will form some sort of a platoon at first base until Ryan Howard is healthy. I didn't think that a National League team would sign Thome, but Philly did, and I'm curious to see how they use him next season, and how Thome will hold up.
The Orioles finally got themselves a general manager. Dan Duquette has filled the vacancy nine years after leaving the Red Sox GM spot. Duquette has been away from the game for a while, but made some good decisions with the Expos and Red Sox in the nineties and early 2000's. He's got a long road ahead of him, but the Orioles apparently think he can build their franchise back up.
The Twins also fired their GM today. Bill Smith was fired and Terry Ryan was promoted to the position of interim GM. It's kind of a strange move, considering free agency has already started. It seems like something that should have been done sometime in early October.
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