Sunday, November 27, 2011

A Starting Plan for the Rebuilding White Sox

The Chicago White Sox can call it whatever they want, but they definitely are making the right choice by rebuilding not just the major league roster, but the organization as a whole. There are a few bad contracts on the roster that are really hampering the team. The minor league system is thin and weak thanks to their all-or-nothing strategy, which has largely blown up on them. First rounders like Jarrod Mitchell and Keenyn Walker, along with second round pick Trayce Thompson are great athletes, but have struck out in over 25% of their plate appearances in the minors. None of them have made it out of Class-A ball, and are perfect examples of the White Sox draft philosophy. Another recent first round pick, Chris Sale, will attempt to transition to the rotation, but might end up being a full-time reliever. Using first round picks on relief pitchers is never a good idea. 

The White Sox rebuilding process will look to shed payroll from the major league roster, while replenishing the minor league system. Although we tend to focus on the bad contracts on their team, they do have a few good assets who could be on the move. From the rotation, both Gavin Floyd and John Danks could find new homes this offseason. I've never been as infatuated with Danks as the rest of the league. He wears his hat crooked and had a good year in 2008. Other than that, he's a pretty average starting pitcher. There are teams still believe Danks is something more, like the Yankees. The Yankees have shown interest in Danks in the past and my first move would be to try to trade Danks to the Yankees, and see if I could pry some of their young starting pitchers of one of their young catchers away. If Danks can't be moved to the Yankees, anywhere would really do, as long as they get a decent return. Danks is still young enough where the team getting him could extend him through his prime, and still have a solid investment at worst. Gavin Floyd is a little older, but should still bring back something nice. Floyd has one year left on his current deal, and a team option for 2013. Floyd posted a 1.16 WHIP and 3.73 xFIP in 2011, and definitely has value as a right handed middle rotation starter. 

Of their position players, the one that is best situated to move is Carlos Quentin. Quentin is a prototypical power hitting right handed corner outfielder. In this era of pitching, Quentin could be a middle of the order bat for the right team. He's going into his last year of team control, but is still 28, and should be entering his prime. He should have at least four or five more productive years, which makes him valuable to another team, but doesn't fit with the White Sox time frame. 

Danks, Floyd, and Quentin are their best options to be traded in the offseason, but I think a few of their pieces will be more valuable at the 2012 trade deadline. Their bullpen is pretty deep, and even though relief pitchers usually only bring back midlevel prospects, they could trade a few of them at the deadline to try and replenish the system. Paul Konerko could also be a name that attracts interest at the deadline. With Pujols and Fielder available this offseason, along with most of the big budget teams being set at first base, Konerko's value won't be too high this offseason. At the deadline however, If there's an injury, or a team needs a designated hitter, we could see Konerko move, and bring back a decent return. Dayan Viciedo appears to be the heir apparent at first base for the White Sox. During the first half of 2012, they could put him in left field or designated hitter, and if he's doing well, it could give them the incentive to move Konerko and insert Viciedo at first base full-time. 

Obviously with their new direction, everyone on the roster should be available for trade. Although, I doubt many teams will be inquiring about Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, or Jake Peavy. But another player who could be on the move is Gordon Beckham. Beckham came out of the University of Georgia, and had a lot of success at a young age. Much like Danks, though, he's floundered in recent years. He's a former first round pick, and still young enough that another team might take a shot on him, hoping to change his approach or tweak his stance to tap into his full potential. 

With all these players leaving, we're going to have to fill a few holes. With the lose of Mark Buehrle and one or both of Gavin Floyd and John Danks, the rotation is going to need bolstered. Along with incumbents Jake Peavy and Philip Humber, Chris Sale will transition there next year. Zach Stewart came over from the Blue Jays this past season via a trade, and should get a chance at the rotation. Like Sale, Stewart might be destined for a bullpen role, but he came up as a starter, and I believe players should get a chance to be a starter before being forced into the bullpen. With the thin rotation, and stocked bullpen, I think it's a better fit for the team anyway. In the final rotation spot, I think the team needs a guy who can eat innings. With Peavy's injury history, and Sale and Stewart being young (and probably limited), they'll need a stabilizer in the rotation. A Livan Hernandez type, who can make 30+ starts, and eat innings would be a great signing for this team. 

The only other position of need in this plan is an outfielder. Without any signings, the outfield mix will consist of Alejandro De Aza, Alex Rios, and possibly Dayan Viciedo. My first choice to add to this team would be David DeJesus. DeJesus can play all of the outfield positions well, and really is only one year removed from posting a .384 OBP in 2010. He had a bad year playing in the pitchers parks of the A.L. West, but could have an offensive resurgence in the hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field. 

DeJesus and Livan aren't flashy signings, but they get the job done, are versatile, and come cheap. The White Sox are going to be to be looking for impact players in free agency this year, but instead looking for guys who can get the job done. With this new plan the White Sox roster will look like this: 

Catchers: A.J. Pierzinski, Tyler Flowers 
Infielders: Paul Konerko, Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel, Alexei Ramirez, Osvaldo Martinez
Outfielders: Alejandro De Aza, Alex Rios, Dayan Viciedo, David DeJesus, Brent Lillibridge 
Starting Pitchers: Jake Peavy, Philip Humber, Chris Sale, Zach Stewart, Livan Hernandez 
Bullpen: Sergio Santos, Matt Thornton, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod 

The roster above has 23 names, meaning there's room for two more players. With the youth and inexperience in the rotation, they could add another member to the bullpen. A bullpen arm capable of going multiple innings as a long reliever could see a lot of work with this team. The other spot could go to either an infielder or outfielder depending on how they view Brent Lillibridge and Dayan Viciedo. Osvaldo Martinez came over as compensation for Ozzie Guillen, and should be the teams utility infielder this season. He is a good defender with a strong arm, and enough range to play shortstop. He's known for his defense, and his best offense attribute is his patient approach. If his offense comes around, he could be a top of the order option, and the eventual replacement for Alexei Ramirez. 

In order for this team to sustain success in the future, the biggest thing that needs to change is their draft philosophy. Although I like drafting guys with high ceiling, they're not going about it the right way. The draft is the best way to get talent into the organization, and is also the cheapest. Teams that fail in the draft well will have trouble producing talent at the major league level. They've had trouble signing talent out of Latin America since their scouts were found to be taking part of players signing bonuses a few years ago. Many Latin players are still wary about signing with the White Sox. Even though they've made strides to restore their credibility, they are still not getting the results they'd like from the market.

This isn't going to be a one year process. This team is going to need a few years to let the Alex Rios and Adam Dunn come off of the books and let the young talent develop. That said, 2012 could represent Gordon Beckham's last with the White Sox. I think that they still view his as a building block, but could fall out of favor if he doesn't show something this season. The roster will probably completely turnover before Chicago is competitive again, so there are infinitely many ways the team could go. The White Sox are a storied franchise with a good following. Although they'll never be the most popular team in Chicago, they have the resources to spend money when they need to, and should rise back to prominence when they get their organization back to the quality it needs to be. It might take a while, but the A.L. Central is a soft division, and if the White Sox bounce back to .500, they could complete. With the lack of talent int he system though, it could take a while.

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