A player has to have a very special career to make it into the Hall of Fame his first time on the ballot. Although I'm not sure how players improve their standing in the subsequent years, they must be doing something, because guys tend to get more votes as the years past, even though they're still retired, and aren't adding anything to their legacies on the field.
When I am trying to decide whether or not I think someone should be in the Hall of Fame, I tend to look at two different things; the length of his career, and the five or seven year span that represent the player's peak years. Williams was only in the league for 16 years, which is a good run, but not so much when compared to other Hall of Fame players. He had a good peak, posting a .321/.406/.531 composite line from 1995-2002. Those are good numbers, and really stand out when you consider that Williams played a premium defensive position in center field. But there are definitely negatives…
By all defensive metrics, besides gold gloves, Williams was miscast as a center fielder. Most defensive metrics crush Williams' defense, and portray him as more of a corner outfielder playing center. At his worst, fangraphs shows him costing his team three wins in a single season based solely on defense. That's more than twice as bad as any center fielder rated in 2011. Combine his bad defense with the fact that he played his most productive years in the heart of the steroid era, and he played half of his games in offense-friendly Yankee Stadium, and his overall numbers don't appear to be special anymore.
One thing that we can't look past about Williams however are his playoff numbers. I'm not a big proponent of using playoff numbers to validate a player because they usually occur in very small sample sizes. When looking at all time numbers, the counting stats are skewed too, because of the added rounds in recent generations. But Bernie Williams did have a 545 plate appearances on the playoffs, which equates to almost a full season. And when you presume that he wouldn't be facing any number five type starters, and would be facing fewer garbage time relievers, his slash line of .275/.371/.480 does shine.
Overall, I can't look past the fact that Williams played in an offensive environment, and was probably more suited for a corner outfield spot. I see the Hall of Fame as the "Best of the Best," and not the "Hall of the Very Good." Bernie Williams doesn't make the cut for me, but it's close. Maybe if I figure out what all these other players are doing to increase their votes, and follow Bernie with the same process, he'll get it, but not at this time.
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