The Cincinnati Reds believe that the National League Central is up for grabs, and they are going for it. Cincinnati traded Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez, and Brad Boxberger to San Diego for front line starter Mat Latos. Latos broke onto the scene in 2010, pitching 184.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA. His ERA was in line with his FIP and xFIP, but Latos wore down late in the season, after only throwing 123 innings in 2009. The Padres were in contention in 2010, and rode their young ace with a Dusty Baker-like intensity. In 2011, he managed to approach 200 innings (194.1), but saw his ERA rise to 3.47. His performance wasn't that different though, as his FIP was only 0.16 higher in 2011 then in 2010(3.00 vs 3.16).
Latos is a big strikeout pitcher, with a career K rate of 8.64 K/9. He also gets his fair share of ground balls, with a 42.8% ground ball rate, which is near league average. He has also done a good job at controlling the free passes with a 2.83 BB/9 rate for his career. He does the things that you look for in a starting pitcher, and I'm confident that he will maintain his performance when moving from Petco Park to The Great American Ball Park.
The one thing that Latos doesn't have, which could ultimately prevent him from ever becoming a true ace, is his mental makeup on the mound. He's no Carlos Zambrano, but his attitude is what made him slip from the first round to the eleventh round in the draft. Getting control of his emotions on the field could be the final piece of the puzzle for Latos. Latos turned 24 earlier this month, and still has time to refine his game before reaching the prime of his career.
As far as the San Diego side of the deal, they got one veteran, and three prospects. The veteran, Edinson Volquez should slot right into the rotation vacancy left by Latos. Much like Aaron Harang, I think that Volquez could get his career back on track with the move from Cincinnati to San Diego. Last year, Volquez had a strikeout rate of 8.61 K/9 and a ground ball rate of 52.4%. Both very strong numbers, which should translate to Petco. Much of his struggles came from his 5.38 BB/9 rate and his 20.7% HR/FB rate. While his control has never been a strong suit, his home run rate was about twice as high as expected, even in Great American Ball Park. With the heavy marine air of San Diego, I could see his HR/FB rate get back down under 12%, and possibly under 10%. He's still under team control for two more years, and if he manages to put together two solid seasons in San Diego, could be in line for a big pay day going into his age 30 season.
Before he left to join the Cubs, Jed Hoyer built a very strong farm system in San Diego. While it might lack the top tier talent, it's incredibly deep. This trade will only help to improve that, as the prospects that the Reds sent back are all highly regarded. But although the Padres got three high end prospects, I'm not sure the fit the Padres organization.
Brad Boxberger is the least flashy prospect, and doesn't have the potential future value of either of the others. But as a reliever, Boxberger could find his way to the closer role in the future. The Padres just traded for Huston Street, but Street will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and that's when the door could open for Boxberger. Boxberger threw 62 innings in 2011 between AA and AAA, and could be ready for the Major League team in 2012. Even though Boxberger profiles as a good late inning reliever in the future, his value to the Padres probably won't be that pronounced, as Petco Park allows the Padres to build good bullpens without big name prospects of signings.
Yasmani Grandal was one of two of the Reds top catching prospects. The other, Devin Mesoraco, is Major League ready, and is the better overall prospect. The biggest question about Grandal has been his receiving behind the plate. If he can stick behind the plate, his bat should be plus, however if he's forced to move to a different position, it will take away much of the value that his bat generates. If things go to plan, Grandal should start the season at AAA, but his defense probably warrants a full season there. He could get a September call up, but shouldn't get anything more.
The final prospect leaving Cincinnati is Yonder Alonso. Alonso has been Major League ready for a while now, but has been blocked by Joey Votto at first base. Alonso doesn't posses the athleticism to play any other position, and the efforts of the Reds to move him didn't go well, as he was a disaster at third base and in left field. Alonso's bat should play anywhere, but his glove relegates him to first base only.
The Padres already have a top first base prospect in Anthony Rizzo. Even though Rizzo didn't perform well in his 153 at bat sample in 2011, it shouldn't change his career outlook. Rizzo was 21 in 2011, and hit .331/.404/.652 in 356 at bats at AAA, and was young even for that level. Rizzo has a higher ceiling than Alonso, but might not be in the future plans of the club. Rizzo was acquired by the Padres' last regime, and the new regime might view Alonso as "their" player. The Padres will have to move one of them, and I wouldn't be surprised if it were Rizzo. His value is probably at an all-time low though, as the first thing that teams will notice about his was his terrible audition at the Major League level at the beginning of last season.
The Padres got a lot of talent with back in return for Latos, as a lot of that talent was blocked in Cincinnati and would have to be move eventually. But much of the talent doesn't seem to fit in San Diego either. At the end of the day though, the Padres are rebuilding, and the future value that they should get from the youngsters that they acquired outweighs the marginal wins Latos would have gotten them in the near future.
For Cincinnati, they finally acquired their top end starter. They gave away a lot of talent, but a lot of it was expendable anyways. Grandal and Alonso were blocked in their organization, and even though a relief pitchers have value, an ace pitcher is a tough commodity to come by. If Latos helps the Reds make a playoff run or two, the Reds will be happy with their investment, while the Padres will be content with the talent they received from the onset of the deal.
The Twins lost a pair of corner outfielders over the weekend as Michael Cuddyer signed a three year deal with the Rockies while Jason Kubel signed a two year deal with the Diamondbacks. The Cuddyer deal is a three year $31.5 million pact. It's a little bit of an overpay, but Cuddyer was in demand, and brings positional diversity. He should spend most of his time in right, with Carlos Gonzalez moving to left, and Dexter Fowler and Charlie Blackmon splitting time in center, but could fill in at first and second base.
The Jason Kubel deal seems to be a major overpay. Kubel got two years and $15 million. The plan is for Kubel to play left field, and former left fielder Gerardo Parra to serve as the team's fourth outfielder. Kubel is a poor defender in the outfield, and only has one season in which he was worth more that one win (per fangrpahs). The Diamondbacks could try to convert him to first base, and form a platoon with Paul Goldschmidt, but there hasn't been any hints of that so far. I think Kubel would have been a better fit for an American League team, where he could split time between designated hitter and corner outfield. The Twins did a nice job by signing Josh Willingham to a cheaper contract than either of their former outfielders, and will receive draft picks back as compensation for the departed, too.
Jimmy Rollins agreed with the Phillies to return on a three year deal with an option for a fourth this past weekend. Rollins best option all along was to return to the Phillies. I don't think Rollins really merits a spot at the top of the order anymore. Since his 30th birthday three years ago, his on base percentage has been .316, not exactly what you're looking for at the top of the order. Any other team that would have signed Rollins would have felt pressured to put their big free agent at the top of the order, but I think returning to Philadelphia, he could slide down in the order. He still has a good bat for a shortstop, but with the current level of play at shortstop, that's not saying much. He's better suited in the sixth or seventh hole in the lineup at this point in his career, but with Ryan Howard out, he could also find a spot in the middle of the Phillies order.
I have a feeling that the Reds biggest regret this off-season will be not completing the Latos trade in time to get Josh Willingham.
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