The aggressive bid for Darvish represents the first offseason move of a championship caliber team. The Rangers' biggest division rival, the Angels, have already made two big moves this offseason, while the Rangers have been quiet. Coming off of two consecutive trips to the World Series, the Rangers should expect added revenue next season, which should help to offset some of the initial cost of Darvish's posting fee.
Darvish is a big right handed pitcher, who should ascend to the top of the Texas rotation. He has a reputation for attacking the strike zone, and not nibbling at the corners as much as former import Daisuke Matsuzaka. Much of Matsuzaka's troubles in recent years have come form his stubbornness around the zone. It seems like too many of Daisuke's at bats start out with him getting ahead early, only to try to nibble at the corners, ended up in deep counts and walks. Both of which can lead to a quick hook, especially in the American League East. Darvish could learn a lesson from this, and continue to attack the strike zone throughout at bats.
His repertoire in Japan has consisted of many different pitches, with some people saying he throws up to ten. In America, he'll have to cut it down to his best offerings. I expect him to stick primarily to his two seam and four seam fastballs, his slider, his cutter, and a slurvey curveball that he throws. He'll still offer a diverse arsenal, and the presence of a cutter gives confidence that he won't suffer from a large platoon split, even though he doesn't throw a changeup or splitter.
Now that the Rangers have won the rights to Darvish, they have 30 days to negotiate a contract. If they reach a deal, the Nippon Ham Fighters get their $52 million, but if Darvish doesn't sign, he goes back to Japan, and the Pork Fighters don't get anything. It's a high initial cost, but most Japanese players have signed deals at below market value, which helps the team spread the cost over the years a little. Even Daisuke, who was represented by Scott Boras, signed for well below market value with his six year $52 million deal.
The Rangers recent success should help them bring in more money, but much like the Angels, they also have a new T.V. deal that will being in $80 million per year for the next 20 years. That deal doesn't begin until the 2014 season though, so while the Rangers could backload a contract, their posting fee could leave them tight for cash at the onset of a contract.
The Rangers would probably like to agree to a longer term deal (at least as far as deals for pitchers are concerned) with Darvish. A below value deal, which would eat up the prime years of Darvish's career, but then again, what team wouldn't want that? On the other side, Darvish would probably like a shorter deal, with guaranteed free agency afterwards. Going back to the Daisuke deal once again, when he becomes a free agent in 2013, the Red Sox won't be able to offer him arbitration. Meaning teams could be willing to spend more money on him for his next contract since they won't have to give draft picks as compensation. Getting to free agency while he still has good years left should be a goal for the first Darvish contract, because getting a true free agency contract at around age 30 should bring in more money than any upcoming deal with the Rangers.
The Rangers winning the bid for Yu Darvish has one big loser, and that's Prince Fielder. Even though the Rangers denied being in on the first baseman, they've always been his best fit. He brings a left handed bat that they need, at a position with epresents a huge hole for them. If the Rangers sign Darvish, and pay the posting fee, I don't think they'll have the resources to offer Fielder a substantial deal. With the T.V. contract in the future and the posting fee being a one time thing, the Rangers would be in a great position for Fielder in a few years, but I don't know about this offseason.
Fielder's best options for a big payday include teams like the Cubs and Nationals. The Marlins might use some of their Albert Pujols money to make an offer, but I don't think they'll be big players. The Cardinals could be in a similar boat, but haven't made any noise on Fielder. If Fielder wants to had a chance to win, his options are probably a smaller offer from Texas, Miami, or possibly St. Louis, while his big money offers might come from Washington or the Cubs.
Darvish's celebrity in Japan is already on par with the biggest athletes in America, and he's been dealing with the immense pressure of being a star since he was a teenager. Coming over to America at age 25, I don't think he'll have a problem transitioning to life in the States. If he does sign with the Rangers, it's probably not going to be until at least a week before the deadline. We're still three months away from opening day, and there's really no reason for Darvish to make a move until he has to. I think there's a three in four chance he signs, so while I think it's likely, the chance he doesn't is still significant.
I believe his stuff will play in America, better than Daisuke and many of the other recent signings. He has a big frame, and a big fastball. Those should translate, and he should have enough offering to keep guys off balance. We could see an adjustment period though at the beginning of the season, this could be due to the difference in the baseballs, the higher mound, or just getting used to the culture of America. I have confidence in Darvish, but if he turns out to be Daisuke 2.0, it should be the end of the big posting fees for Japanese players for a while, at least for smart teams who are paying attention or have been burned before.
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