Gio Gonzalez goes to Washington for Four Prospects

The Athletics traded their second starting pitcher of the offseason on Thursday, and got a much better return than they got for Trevor Cahill. Gio Gonzalez will spend next season with the Washington Nationals, while A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone will join the Athletics organization. The Nationals also got Rob Gilliam in the deal, who I've never actually heard of. But doing some research, he seems to be a low end prospect, who's made it to High A this past year at the age of 23. 

The Nationals will be Gonzalez's fourth organization in his young career. He'll only be 26 next season, but has already spent time in the Phillies, Athletics and White Sox (twice) organizations. The Athletics are the only time team he's ever pitched for at the Major League level though. He's a lefty, who has put up big strikeout numbers, but also big walk numbers. He's walked over 90 batters each of the last two years, and actually led the league in 2011. He's got great stuff, and generates ground balls at a good rate, 47.5% for 2011 and his career. Although the Oakland Coliseum is known as a pitchers park because of it's dimensions and vast foul territory, it hasn't really helped Gio throughout his career. He's got a BABIP of .293 for his career, and a HR/FB rate of 10.3%, which are both in line with league average. 

Nationals Park also favors pitchers a bit, and shouldn't be that big of a change for him. Gonzalez figures to slot in as a solid lefty behind the two top right handers in the Washington staff, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. The three of them should form a formidable top of the rotation, while the organization still has enough depth to fill out the back end. Due to Gonzalez's service time though, I believe he's been overvalued this offseason, and I don't believe he's as good as most people perceive. 

I believe that the Oakland Athletics made out like bandits in this deal. The prize of the deal is A.J. Cole, but Tom Milone and Brad Peacock represent back end of the rotation options, who are cheap and have less than one year of service time. Cole is a big right hander, who can bring the heat in the mid-ninties, with good control. He also throws a good slider, and is developing a changeup. He's still a teenager, but has massive upside. He'll become Oakland's top pitching prospect, as most everybody is higher on Cole than the A's other recent acquisition Jarrod Parker. With the Angles and Rangers arms race that's currently going on, it doesn't seem that Oakland will contend anytime soon, but Cole fits a timeframe that's further down the road. 

Derek Norris is a potential all-star behind the plate, but has struggled to make contact. He's solid behind the plate defensively, hits for power, and is very disciplined at the plate. He hasn't hit for much average since he broke his wrist in 2009, but I'm still a fan. He walks enough to keep his on base percentage respectable, and hits for enough power to keep pitchers from throwing the ball over the heart of the plate. If he can keep his strikeouts in check, he could develop into an upper-tier catcher in the league. 

Tom Milone is a finess lefty, with good control. He doesn't have an out pitch, which has caused his strikeout rate to abandon him at the Major League level. He's serviceable as a backend starter, and could succeed in a large park like Oakland's. Brad Peacock is a max effort righty, who has a better fastball than Milone, but doesn't have very good secondary stuff, and could end up in the bullpen as a power reliever.  

Even though Gio is an established Big League pitcher, with five years of control left, I'm not confident his performance will ever match his stuff. He walks too many people, and I think that will ultimately hold him back. Washington is building up for 2013, when Strasburg should have a healthy year without [m]any inning limitations, and Bryce Harper on the big club. Since Gonzalez is a trade and not a free agent signing, the Nationals should still have money to go out and get a big free agent if they find a good fit. 

For the Athletics, they're continuing to bring in young talent, and it looks as if they don't plan on making any noise until at least 2014. They probably aren't done tearing apart their Major League roster yet though, as it appears Andrew Bailey will be moved soon, most likely to Texas or Boston. Other bullpen arms like Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes could also be moved, although Balfour is owed significant money, and Fuentes hash't been worth much more than a replacement level player in the past three years.