Their deal with Bell is a three year deal, which pays an average annual value of $9 million and locks up Bell through his age 36 season. The Marlins don't have an "established" closer on their roster thanks to the antics of Juan Carlos Oviedo (the pitcher formally known as Leo Nunez). And although Steve Ciskek seemed to be ready to take over the role, the Marlins decided to go after a bigger name instead.
Bell broke into the majors as a reliever at the age of 26, but has only been closing games for three years. He's topped 40 saves each of the past three years, and has averaged more than a strikeout per inning during that span, with a ground ball rate of over 40% each season. That all sounds well and good, but Bell's 2.36 ERA over that span has benefited from a 4.3 HR/FB rate, thanks in part to Petco Park. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.1 K/9 in 2010 to 7.3 this past season. The dip in strikeout rate is even more alarming when you factor in that he threw nearly 45% breaking balls this past season as opposed to only 30% in 2010. Breaking balls should induce more swings and misses, and the fact that Bell went away from his fastball could be an indication that he didn't have as much faith in it. Although his velocity remained consistent, Texasleaguers.com shows that it didn't move as much in 2011 as it did in 2010.
With the lack of vertical displacement, drop in strikeout rate, and removal from Petco Park, Bell could see himself giving up more home runs with the Marlins. We don't know how Miami Ballpark will play, and there's really no reason to speculate. Early word from Minnesota before the 2010 season was that Target Field would be a hitters haven, but we've seen in suppress offense for two years now. If the Marlins new home plays big, Bell could continue to use it to his advantage, but he is aging into his mid thirties, and posted a career low in ground ball rate this past season (43%) and strikeout rate. To me, it seems like a three year, $27 million deal seems like a bad idea, but there is still hope for Marlins fans.
As with the Phillies decision to sign Jonathan Papelbon to a large contract, this could be a sign of things to come. The Marlins have been expressing interest in spending oodles of money this Winter, and if they're wiling to spend this much on a closer, who knows what they could do next. Last season, after the Nationals signing Jayson Werth to a 30 year $2 billion deal, we all thought they were crazy. After one year, it appears that they were, but for the rest of the offseason, the media connected the Nationals to every other big free agent. There were rumors about them being in the Cliff Lee bidding, and although none of it came through, the Nationals were in the news, and got a lot of attention. The Marlins could find themselves in a similar boat. Although I think that they will still make a run at a the big names, I'd say it's about 50-50 that they land one of Pujols, Reyes, Wilson, or Buehrle.
In the end, I think this deal, like all big money deal for relief pitchers, will prove to be a bad investment. It could, however, be a sign of things to come though from the Marlins, as they've opened up and signed Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and Ricky Nolasco to bigger money deals in the recent past. They obviously want to bring star power into their new stadium, but I'd be careful, because Miami fans haven't been wiling to support this strategy on the basketball side, and I'm afraid that the Marlins could dig themselves into a whole lot of debt.
Other Notes:
The Tigers retained the services of Ramon Santiago yesterday. Santiago has spent all but 2005 with Detroit, and will continue to do so for the next two seasons. He's a competent defender all around the infield, and can handle the bat. He's a guy who can play everyday incase of an injury, and I view as one of the better utility infielders around. He may get a shot at the starting second base job, but Detroit would be better served using him as a reserve off of the bench.
Dan Duquette made a strange move to begin his tenure with the Orioles on Thursday. He sent pitching prospect Randy Henry and a player to be named later to Texas for Taylor Teagarden. With the emergence of Mike Napoli both offensively and defensively, Teagarden was expendable for the Rangers, and they must have jumped at the opportunity to flip him for a pitching prospect. Henry isn't a great prospect, but he has established himself as a good relief pitcher over the past couple of years. He spent this past season in A+ ball, at the age of 21. He doesn't put up great strikeout numbers, but has good control, and generates a lot of ground balls with his sinker. Relief pitchers are frugal, but Henry has a chance to be a good reliever, with a profile that could succeed in Rangers Ballpark. I don't see how the Orioles can justify this deal. They already have an established young star behind the dish in Matt Wieters, and shouldn't be giving up assets for a back up. Their pitching talent took a step back in 2011, and I would think that they'd want to hold on to all of the arms that they could at this point.
The Texas Rangers also announced that Mitch Moreland underwent wrist surgery and will be out for 12 weeks. Now, it's only December 1st, and that means that Moreland should be about ready to go by the time position players report to spring training. So, I don't see this as a big deal, but the Rangers could use this as a reason to pursue Prince Fielder. Much like my home town Tribe, first base is a disaster for the Rangers, and after making it to the World Series two straight years, I would think that they would pounce on an impact player who's in his prime like Fielder. His left-handed bat would bring balance to the lineup, and they wouldn't have to bat their first baseman ninth anymore. The biggest negative the addition of Fielder is that is would give Ron Washington another good hitter that could bump Mike Napoli further down in the order.
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