Minor Moves Around the State of Ohio

It's been a big week for free agents. Prince Fielder signed with the Tigers, Yeonis Cespedes established his citizenship in the Dominican Republic, and there has been a lot of talk about Roy Oswalt. Edwin Jackson is the only big name who's been quiet this week. 

Two teams who've made less newsworthy moves have been the two Ohio clubs. The Indians have been making small moves all Winter, and this week was no different, as they signed Dan Wheeler. The Reds signed a free agent, made a trade, and gave out an extension.

Let's start in Cleveland, where the Tribe signed Dan Wheeler to fill out the back of their bullpen, and fill the spot opened by Chad Durbin. Wheeler seems to be a good signing for the Tribe, and he pitched better than his numbers indicated in 2011. Wheeler is a fly ball pitcher, and pitched last season in Fenway Park with the Red Sox. With a ground ball rate which is typically in the low thirties, the dimensions of Fenway were a big reason why he struggled last season. 

Prince Fielder to the Tigers

On Tuesday afternoon, Prince Fielder, Scott Boras, and the Detroit Tigers put baseball on it's ear. After not being in on any of the Fielder rumors during this offseason, the Tigers jumped in at the last minute and signed the big first baseman to a nine year $214 million deal. 

The Mystery Team was two for two this offseason in signing big time first baseman, as the Angels swooped in earlier this offseason to sign Albert Pujols out of nowhere. This has been something of a recent trend, at least for top end free agents, with the Phillies doing the same thing with Cliff Lee last year.

The deal itself seems to be a little bit of an overpay. The AAV is $23.8 million, putting Fielder up with the top earners in the league. He also gets nine years out of the Tigers, while other clubs were hesitant to go to seven or eight years. But after losing Victor Martinez, the team needed another bat, and owner Mike Ilitch was willing to spend. No one else on the market could fill in the hole left by Victor Martinez, except for Prince Fielder. 

All of the other possible replacements (Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladamir Guerrero, etc.), though, would have only required one year deals. Meaning that they'd be off the books when Victor Martinez returns in 2013. With Fielder signing a nine year deal though, the Tigers will have themselves a logjam at first base and designated hitter for the final two years of Victor Martinez's contract. 

Shortly after the deal was signed, Miguel Cabrera said he would shift back over to third, and people actually think that could be a possibility. The last time Cabrera played any third was his first year in Detroit, 2008. Since then, he's been exclusively at first base, and has gained weight. That year, 2008, Miggy played all of 14 games at third before the team was forced to move him to first. He's not going to be any better in 2012, and probably would be substantially worse. Both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are first base or designated hitters, they can't play anywhere else. Victor Martinez, on the other hand, has the ability to play bad catcher. That won't alleviate many of the Tigers' issues in 2012 though, because Alex Avila emerged last season as a Big League catcher. 

It appears that the Tigers' will indeed have three players for two spots in the lineup. The easiest way to fix this problem would be with a trade. In which case Victor Martinez would be the most likely to be traded. He's got the least years left on his deal, the littlest money owed, so other teams would be more willing to take him on. He's also now the least valuable to the trio to the Tigers.

There are other negatives to this deal for the Tigers, besides the impending logjam. By acquiring another 1B/DH type, they take a real hit on defense. They're going to constantly have two of Delmon Young, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder in the field this season. In 2013, if they don't retain Young who will be a free agent next offseason, they have the same problem with Victor Martinez, who is a poor defender but can't play outfield. They also limit their flexibility, since they're going to have a line of people for the DH slot at all times. They won't be able to use it to rest players or ease them back from injury. 

The final "negative" from this deal is that it actually doesn't make them that much better, at least in 2012. Victor Martinez was a three win player last year for the Tigers, and Prince doesn't project to be more than a five win player, and possibly less if his power doesn't translate outside of Miller Park. Adding Prince only makes them two wins better then they were in 2011, and will create a numbers problem further down the road.

But as an Indians fan, I can't help but think how this will affect the rest of the division. I don't think it changes the plans of either the White Sox or Twins that much. They aren't looking to make too much noise in 2012, and both teams, as well as Detroit, could look different before they are both playing for something.

For the Royals, I could see how this could keep them from making any more moves. I believe that the Royals were still trying to add a starting pitcher, and try to take the league by storm from under the radar in 2012. If their young hitters took a step forward, and their young pitchers took the step forward that most of them didn't in 2011, they could have surprised some people. Instead, I think the Fielder signing might persuade them to wait a year, bide their time, save a little payroll this year (which doesn't just get put into a fire like some people seem to think, that's money that they can still spend next season), and hopefully come into 2013 a little stronger than they otherwise would.

For the Indians, this signing was close to worst case scenario, but then again, it's Cleveland, so that should be expected. This Indians team was built to try and win in 2012 and 2013, the time where the Tigers have all of their stars in their prime. This should force the Indians into making some sort of move this offseason. Whether that's signing Casey Kotchman or trading for Carlos Lee, the Indians need to do something if they're serious about winning. Because the team that beat them last season just got better, and they haven't gotten any better, and could have possibly gotten worse depending on how you feel about the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona. 

This move for the Tigers came out of nowhere, and understandably. It doesn't seem to make much sense for their roster, and they didn't have a reason to be attached to Fielder in any way before the Victor Martinez injury. This is clearly a reactionary move, while signing a big name always sounds good in the short term, it often doesn't work out in the end. The Tigers weren't the best fit for Fielder, and it'll be interesting seeing how they manage their roster moving forward.

Behind the Giants Quiet Offseason

The San Francisco Giants have been relatively quiet this offseason. The team that won the World Series in 2010 performed below what was expected in 2011. Aging veterans on offense and questionable management were points of failure, but the team still maintained it's excellent pitching. Their roster construction for 201 created obvious holes as they entered the offseason. They have holes that a tank could drive through at shortstop and in the outfield. 

They've tried to reinforce their outfield by trading for Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, but haven't found a solution at shortstop. The shortstop market was deep this offseason, and even though all the options besides Jose Reyes had serious warts, they were still better options than Mike Fontenot or any other aging veteran that they acquire who can't hit or play shortstop anymore. But the Giants have been relatively quiet this offseason, and focused most of their attention on locking up their home grown pitching staff.

Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been at the top of the San Francisco rotation since Lincecum had his first full season in 2008. In signing them to longterm deal, the Giants hope to buy out Lincecum's final two arbitration years, get somewhat of a discount (since they're not competing with other teams on the free agent market), and get some cost certainty for the franchise moving forward. 

Rox and Sox Make Swap

After literally days of rumors and whispers, Marco Scutaro is finally headed to Colorado. The Red Sox and the Rockies agreed to a deal which would send Scutaro to Colorado in exchange for 26 year old Clay Mortensen. It is a strange deal for the Red Sox, who are now left with no real shortstops on their Major League roster. It also gives up some insight to what Colorado has been striving for. 

The Red Sox will be Mortensen's fourth organization, including St. Louis, Oakland, and Colorado. He's bounced between the rotation and the bullpen in the Majors, making 13 of his 24 appearances as a starter. He is a ground ball pitcher, who doesn't strikeout many, and has struggled with his control. He'll be depth for the Boston rotation, but won't make a real impact. He doesn't profile as a bullpen option either, due to his lack of power stuff or strikeout ability. 

What Boston is really getting from this deal is salary relief. They haven't had much flexibility this offseason, but with the $6 million Scutaro was supposed to be earning off the books, they have more resources to address their biggest need, starting pitching. A short term deal for an established veteran, like what the Yankees recently found with Hiroki Kuroda, would fit their team well. Roy Oswalt would be the best fit, but I'm beginning to think that there's something in his medicals that are scaring teams away, because he's lowered his asking price to the point where he's undervaluing himself. 

Replacing Victor Martinez

The Detroit Tigers recently found out that Victor Martinez had suffered an ACL injury, and would likely require surgery. It's a devastating blow to the team, as Victor is one of the Tiger's top offensive threats, and bats behind Miguel Cabrera in the order. He put up a .330/.380/.470 slash line in 2011, hits well form both sides of the plate, and is an all around good guy. One the surface, one would think that it'd be impossible for Detroit to replace Victor Martinez. A switch hitter, who protects your best player in the lineup, and hits for both power and average.

No one player can replace Victor Martinez for the Detroit Tigers, but they do have options to make up a lot of his production. The injury happened at a good time for the Tigers actually. If it happened earlier in the offseason, they wouldn't have signed a big free agent to a long deal, as they need a one year replacement at most. There haven't been any trades of a player who the Tigers would have been interested in as a designated hitter, and the bargain bin options are probably have been their target all along. With names like Johny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, and Carlos Pena out there among others, they have options. 

A Strange Offseason in Colorado

Along with the Chicago White Sox, the Colorado Rockies have been one of the most puzzling teams this Winter. They've been active, but with no discernible plan. Many of the moves that Colorado has made look to make the team older, more expensive, and less flexible. Others seem to be bad personal decisions which show a misunderstanding about how they home environment plays. Certain moves have hinted at rebuilding, while others are typical of a team who's interested in winning. It's concerning because when team's make moves without a plan or goal, they usually end up stagnating and slowing the progress of the franchise. 

It all started in late November, when the team traded away Chris Iannetta for Tyler Chatwood, and signed Ramon Hernandez with a corresponding transaction. Trading Iannetta was understandable, as the team and player didn't seem to ever be on the same page. Iannetta was bounced from the Rockies to Colorado Springs and back, sat on the bench, and struggled at times. Ramon Hernandez is a serviceable player, and fine replacement for Iannetta, but is also seven years older. Tyler Chatwood has always been young for his level, but has never showed dominance or posted good strikeout to walk numbers, and profiles more as a reliever than a starter in Colorado. 

Reds Fix Final Flaw

The Reds have been one of the most active and aggressive teams this offseason, and with good reason. After winning the division in 2010, the had a quiet offseason a year ago. They were hoping that their young roster would be one year older, and age would bring improvement. They though that they had a deep rotation, solid bullpen, and a potent offense. The offense came through, scoring the second most runs in the National League, but as the saying goes, "if you're not getting better, your getting worse." The pitching didn't show up in 2011, largely due to injuries and ineffectiveness in the rotation. Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez both had down seasons, while the lone bright spot in the rotation was Johnny Cueto.

With a limited budget they chose to trade away prospects to reinforce their pitching staff instead of shelling out money in free agency. They sacrificed some of their future for five years of Mat Latos and one year of Sean Marshall. Once his cost came down, and a shorter deal was an option, they signed Ryan Madson to one of the best contracts of the offseason. 

Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda... and Hiroki Kuroda

Both the Yankees and Mariners have been quiet this offseason. Seattle has been linked to Prince Fielder, but that was never a good match, while the Yankees have only been mentioned in rumors with free agents because they're the Yankees. That all changed Friday night when both clubs gave up young, impact talent with a year or less or Major League service time.

This trade addresses big needs for both teams, as the Yankees get a good young pitcher who should eventually serve as a number two behind CC Sabathia, while the Mariners get Jesus Montero to help their starving offense. The Yankees offered Montero to the Mariners in the summer of 2010 for Cliff Lee, but the Mariners opted for the Rangers package centered around Justin Smoak, as they hoped that the switch hitting Smoak's power from the left side of the plate would play better than the pure right handed hitting Montero's in Safeco Field. 

A year and a half after turning down Montero, Justin Smoak has been a disappointment with the M's, struggling with his power (.163 ISO) and suffering from a .265 BABIP. On the other hand, Montero showed a .262 ISO in his stint with the Yankees in 2011, a number which is about 44 points higher than anything he posted at any stop in the minors. 

Kendrick, Maholm, Madson, and Why Prince May be Waiting

While the big prize still left, Prince Fielder, has been quiet for most of the offseason, other team are still making moves. The Orioles and Mariners brought players over form Japan, who I'm not familiar with, so look elsewhere for that. But other teams have been busy in the domestic market. Here's my thoughts on the recent action. 

Let's start in Los Angelos, or Anaheim, where ever they are, where the Angels came to agreement with Howie Kendrick on an extension. Kendrick signed a 4 year deal for $33.5 million. The deal buys out Kendrick's last year of arbitration, and ensures that he won't hit the open market after the season, where he would have gotten more money. Kendrick is coming off of his best season, hitting for the most power in his career (.179 ISO), and putting of an on base percentage slightly better than league average (.338). 

Like a lot of Angels' hitters we've seen in recent years, Kendrick makes a lot of contact, doesn't walk much, and needs to hit for a high average to keep his on base percentage respectable. His BABIP last season was in line with his career average (.338 in 2011 vs .339 for his career), and his career high 18 home runs helped to offset a career high 20.4% strikeout rate. 

Five Big Questions for the Indians

As a true Cleveland fan, I try not to get my hopes up about things. I usually manage to find enough holes so that I don't get excited. This coming season for the Indians is no different. While the front office has done a good job at building what should be a competitive team with their limited resources, their goal is to be competitive in the American League Central, which isn't that tall of an order. This team, like all teams, is imperfect, and here are the biggest questions I have for the upcoming season. 

Who's going to play first base? 

Right now, the in-house options for the Indians include Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Shelley Duncan, and Michael Brantley. LaPorta and Duncan provide right handed options, which is needed to balance the Indians' lineup. LaPorta has been a disappointment though, and doesn't provide any defensive value. He also still has one option left, and could be sent to the minor leagues. Duncan could be a good platoon option, but doesn't hit right handed pitching enough to man the spot full time. There have been rumblings that Carlos Santana could be the Tribe's full time first baseman, but his defense behind the plate hasn't been as bad as some worried, and moving him out from behind the plate would negate much of his value. It would also force Lou Marson into a full time role, which would create another hole in the lineup. Michael Brantley played some first base in the minors, but his bat doesn't profile for a corner position. 

Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs

Friday afternoon, the Cubs front office, who all have a rich history with Anthony Rizzo, acquired the young first baseman along with pitcher Zach Cates from the Padres. Current Cubs' team President Theo Epstein traded Rizzo to the Padres last offseason to now Cubs GM Jed Hoyer. With the Epstein and Hoyer now reunited, they decided to bringing Rizzo back into the fold would be best. The Cubs will send Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to the Padres as compensation. 

Anthony Rizzo is the big prize in this trade. After the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso from the Reds, they had two players for one position. We learned last year, from the Reds, that Yonder Alonso can't play another position, and I don't think Rizzo would fare much better. Rizzo is younger than Alonso, has the better upside, and has more power. Both are left handed, and because of that, Petco Park would probably negate much of the power advantage Rizzo has. They both possess good on base skills, which shouldn't be affected too much by the park. While their offensive contributions projected to by similar in Petco, Rizzo is the better defensive player. Rizzo had more value on the market, and ended up being the one that was moved. The first base job should he his when the club breaks spring training this April, and he should keep the job for the foreseeable future. His 128 at bat sample from last season looked poor because of a .210 BABIP and 30% K rate. His power should play better in Wrigley, and when his BABIP regresses to the norm and that strikeout rate goes down, the real Anthony Rizzo should come out. 

What are the White Sox Doing

Kenny Williams has been the manager of the Chicago White Sox for over a decade now, but this offseason presents a new challenge. For the first time in his tenure, he's been tasked with the job of rebuilding the roster. Instead of adding pieces in an effort to go for a championship, he needs to shed payroll and trade away veterans to bolster the farm system. Before he took over as general manager, Williams didn't spend time as an assistant GM, or as a vice GM. He was never the head of player development or scouting. The only other positions he's held in the front office was special assistant to a chairman, director of minor league operations, vice president of player development, and studio analyst for SportsChanel Chicago. After being promoted to GM in 2000, he had learned on the fly. Not everything was pretty at the beginning of the 21st century, but he learned quickly, and over time became a good general manager. 

Earlier in the offseason, I wrote a full plan for how the White Sox should attack this offseason to put their organization in a better place for the future. The trades of Sergio Santos, Jason Frasor, and Carlos Quentin are steps in the right direction, but the returns that they got, along with the John Danks extension left many people underwhelmed and confused. 

At the beginning of the offseason, the White Sox had a lot of attractive bullpen pieces. A rebuilding team has little need for impact relief pitchers. If moved, they could return value for the team, but staying on the team would provide marginal wins, which do nothing more than hurt their position in the following years draft. Sergio Santos was the first player to leave the South Side. He had a breakout year in 2011, striking out over 35% of the batters he faced, and agreeing to a very club friendly contract. Between his slider, and his contract, Santos would have been an attractive piece for any team looking to upgrade their bullpen. All Chicago got in return for Santos was one prospect; a starting pitcher who has put up good numbers in the minors, but projects to be a #3 starter at best. 

Big-Z to Miami

The Marlins got the prize of the offseason this week when they acquired Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs for Chris Volstad. This was obviously a case where the Cubs wanted to get rid of Zambrano, for the benefit of both club and player. On the other side, Chris Volstad's career had stagnated, and a change of scenery could benefit him as well. 

Along with Zambrano, the Cubs will send $15 million to Miami, to offset his $18 million contract. There is an option for 2013 that kicks in if Big Z finishes in the top four of the National League Cy Young voting this season, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. 

Between being banished to the bullpen, injured, or suspended, Zambrano has failed to hit the 200 inning plateau in any of the past four years, and has been below 170 for the past three. This follows five seasons in which he threw at least 200 innings during his age 22 to his age 26 seasons. He is doing better than any of the other pitchers from his generation who got Dusty'd, but it's obvious that he's a lesser pitcher. 

Along with his lack of innings, his fastball velocity is down from 91.7 mph during his age 26 season, to 90.2 this past year. His strikeout rate was down to 6.24 K/9, down from 7.6 for his career. Even though his walk rate was down in 2011, it was still 3.46, and he hasn't posted a 2:1 K/BB mark since 2005. While he used to be able to generate ground balls at a 50% rate, his rate has slowly gone down, and reached 42.4% last year. When putting all of these things together, and keeping in mind that he's been pitching in Wrigley Field, it's actually kind of a wonder he's made it this long. 

Happenings from the Holidays

It's been a long time between posts. Thanks to the holidays, traveling, and lack of a consistent internet connection it's been hard to get something up. Luckily most front offices seemed to take the some time off too, as there weren't many big deals. The biggest being Gio Gonzalez going to the Washington Nationals (here). Since then, there's been a few signings and trades. The White Sox have been active, but I'm planning on detecting a post to their recent transactions. Here's my reactions to what's been going in the past ten days or so. 

Carlos Beltran also signed a two year deal with the Cardinals on Thursday. He'll get $26 million over the two years, and hopefully not be asked to center field. His knee problems have diminished his range, and at this point he's better suited for a corner spot. Compared to the earlier deals for outfielders this offseason; Cuddyer, Willingham, and Kubel, this deal seems like a steal. He's a better player than all three of the others, and signed a much more club friendly deal. There was speculation of Cleveland signing Beltran, but he blocked a trade to Cleveland last summer, and I never really though he'd sign there. If he did, it would have been the end of the Tribe's offseason moves, and forced Michael Brantley to play first base, something that I was not excited about. He'll be an everyday player in the middle or top of the Cardinals order. Even without his speed, his on base skills are valuable at the top of the St. Louis order in front of Holliday and Berkman.