Anthony Rizzo is the big prize in this trade. After the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso from the Reds, they had two players for one position. We learned last year, from the Reds, that Yonder Alonso can't play another position, and I don't think Rizzo would fare much better. Rizzo is younger than Alonso, has the better upside, and has more power. Both are left handed, and because of that, Petco Park would probably negate much of the power advantage Rizzo has. They both possess good on base skills, which shouldn't be affected too much by the park. While their offensive contributions projected to by similar in Petco, Rizzo is the better defensive player. Rizzo had more value on the market, and ended up being the one that was moved. The first base job should he his when the club breaks spring training this April, and he should keep the job for the foreseeable future. His 128 at bat sample from last season looked poor because of a .210 BABIP and 30% K rate. His power should play better in Wrigley, and when his BABIP regresses to the norm and that strikeout rate goes down, the real Anthony Rizzo should come out.
The minor leagues going to Chicago, Zach Cates, was a third round pick of the Padres in 2010. He made his minor league debut in the Midwest League this past year, and had a decent showing. He threw 118 innings, and had a lackluster 4.73 ERA. His WHIP was a respectable 1.36 though, and his ERA is inflated by his 56.5% strand rate. He made 25 starts in 2011, and threw to the tune of a 3.23 FIP. His control was a problem, with a 4.04 BB/9 rate, and is the biggest thing he'll need to work on to continue his development. He'll also need to develop a breaking pitch to go with his fastball and changeup if he wants to end up in a rotation. He's still has a lot of work to do, but could end up at the back or possibly the middle of a rotation if things break right for him.
The Major League piece going back to San Diego, Andrew Cashner, is a starting pitcher for the time being. He's going into his age 25 season, and hasn't pitched more than 111.1 innings in any professional year, and only has 65 innings at the major league level in his career. His innings have been limited due to being bounced from the rotation to the bullpen and back, and he's also missed time due to injuries. The Cubs may not have faith in Cashner's health, and think he's bound for the bullpen. While he has the arsenal to start, I do think his shoulder won't be able to hold up. As a relief pitcher, he could be a dominant late inning guy with a fastball that could approach triple digits and a sharp slider.
The minor leaguer headed to San Diego is 20 year old Korean-born Kyung-Min Ka. He's a defense first center fielder, with a solid glove, good speed, and a strong arm. His bat is the biggest question mark about him, as he's a slap hitting type, and has a career .040 ISO throughout his minor league career. If he continues as a singles-only hitter, he'll need excellent contact and need to utilize his speed for his offense to make it to the Majors. He doesn't have the upside that Cates has, but could be a solid Major Leaguer, especially in the huge Petco outfield, if his bat allows.
The Cubs got their first baseman of the future, and while both teams got a player who's still a long way from the Majors, I think Rizzo provide more value than anyone else in the trade. It's a smart move by the Cubs, who get an every day player, for the price of a reliever. The Padres were trading from a area of depth, with two first baseman. And while Epstein and Hoyer were probably only interested in Rizzo, I think they still would have won the deal with the lesser Alonso.
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