Big-Z to Miami

The Marlins got the prize of the offseason this week when they acquired Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs for Chris Volstad. This was obviously a case where the Cubs wanted to get rid of Zambrano, for the benefit of both club and player. On the other side, Chris Volstad's career had stagnated, and a change of scenery could benefit him as well. 

Along with Zambrano, the Cubs will send $15 million to Miami, to offset his $18 million contract. There is an option for 2013 that kicks in if Big Z finishes in the top four of the National League Cy Young voting this season, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. 

Between being banished to the bullpen, injured, or suspended, Zambrano has failed to hit the 200 inning plateau in any of the past four years, and has been below 170 for the past three. This follows five seasons in which he threw at least 200 innings during his age 22 to his age 26 seasons. He is doing better than any of the other pitchers from his generation who got Dusty'd, but it's obvious that he's a lesser pitcher. 

Along with his lack of innings, his fastball velocity is down from 91.7 mph during his age 26 season, to 90.2 this past year. His strikeout rate was down to 6.24 K/9, down from 7.6 for his career. Even though his walk rate was down in 2011, it was still 3.46, and he hasn't posted a 2:1 K/BB mark since 2005. While he used to be able to generate ground balls at a 50% rate, his rate has slowly gone down, and reached 42.4% last year. When putting all of these things together, and keeping in mind that he's been pitching in Wrigley Field, it's actually kind of a wonder he's made it this long. 

It's understandable why Miami was willing to take a gamble with Zambrano. Apparently the thinking is that Ozzie Guillen will just yell back at his when he blows up, and make things better. Both Guillen and Zambrano are Venezuelan, and there seems to be a relationship there. The Marlins are also hoping that Zambrano will also help to attract some of Miami's Latin population, which was a motive for signing Jose Reyes, and is a reason why they went so hard after Albert Pujols, but are seemingly out of the Prince Fielder bidding. 

Zambrano should slot in as nothing more than the team's fifth starter behind Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Mark Buehrle, and Ricky Nolasco. Taking a cheap gamble on Zambrano makes sense, especially as just a backend starter. And for all his shortcomings and problems in 2011, Zambrano nearly doubled the WAR of one of the Marlins big free agents, Heath Bell (0.9 to 0.5 per fangraphs). 

In Chris Volstad, the Cubs receive a big righty, who's under team control for the next three years. He generates a lot of ground balls, 50.4% for his career, and has average control, with 3.14 BB/9 for his career. He doesn't get a lot of swing and miss, with only a 5.83 K/9 rate for his career. But if he can limit the free passes and get ground balls, his profile should work for the Cubs in Wrigley. 

I like this deal for the Cubs, because I don't think anyone around the North Side wanted Zambrano back, and even though they're still paying for him, they get three years of Chris Volstad. He's not a a front line pitcher, but he should eat innings, which should be important for a team with a young rotation who struggled with injuries this past year. Even though his ERA was an ugly 4.89 last season, his FIP was 4.32, and his xFIP was a very nice 3.64. I could see Volstad giving the Cubs 180 innings next season, with an ERA around 4.00, which is probably isn't too different from what they could expect from Zambrano, but Volstad comes with fewer headaches. 

Zambrano should be motivated to overhaul his image, and work to post respectable numbers season. There's been no hint of the Marlins wanting to extend him, so Zambrano would be going on the free agent market after 2012 at the age of 31. Even though John Danks just signed an extension, next years free agent class of pitchers seems deep, with names like Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, and Anibal Sanchez. Teams like the Giants and Philles are looking to lock up there guys on the list, but it looks to be a buyers market for starters next offseason. Zambrano will need to give a good season on the field, and keep him emotions in check if he wants to get another multiyear deal. 

Other Notes: 

Fernando Rodney signed a one year deal with the Rays. Rodney has struggled with his control in recent years, which culminated with a 7.88 BB/9 mark last season. Tampa has done a good job at targeting relievers in free agency, and if Rodney can get his control back, it could happen again. He posted a 3.69 FIP against lefties in 2011, largely thanks to his changeup. He can be useful in a certain role, and I'm sure Tampa has a plan for him since they were willing to spend $2 million on him.