Reds Fix Final Flaw

The Reds have been one of the most active and aggressive teams this offseason, and with good reason. After winning the division in 2010, the had a quiet offseason a year ago. They were hoping that their young roster would be one year older, and age would bring improvement. They though that they had a deep rotation, solid bullpen, and a potent offense. The offense came through, scoring the second most runs in the National League, but as the saying goes, "if you're not getting better, your getting worse." The pitching didn't show up in 2011, largely due to injuries and ineffectiveness in the rotation. Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez both had down seasons, while the lone bright spot in the rotation was Johnny Cueto.

With a limited budget they chose to trade away prospects to reinforce their pitching staff instead of shelling out money in free agency. They sacrificed some of their future for five years of Mat Latos and one year of Sean Marshall. Once his cost came down, and a shorter deal was an option, they signed Ryan Madson to one of the best contracts of the offseason. 

It's a strategy that smaller market teams must use to keep competitive, but it comes at a cost. Losing all of that their young talent has really made put a lot of the Reds eggs in 2012. After 2012, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Madson, Sean Marshall, and Scott Rolen will all be free agents. And the better the team plays next season, the more revenue they can generate to resign these guys. They'll also have to find money if they plan to retain perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto before he hits the market following the 2014 season. 

The only problem with their offense this season (besides finding a spot for Yonder Alonso, who was traded) was finding a bat for left field, and they got their man Monday night with Ryan Ludwick. Earlier in the offseason, when they were negotiating the trade for Mat Latos, I thought that the Reds should have been going after Josh Willingham. Willingham eventually signed a three year $21 million deal with the Twins, and represented the type of right handed power bat that they Reds need.  It's possible though that they were waiting for the outfield market to shake out, and much like they did with Ryan Madson, were waiting for a bargain later in the offseason.  Before signing Ludwick, their only dangerous right handed bats were Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, and possibly rookie Devin Mesoraco. Not exactly a group who strikes fear into a pitcher to protect lefties Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. 

Left field was also obvious spot to upgrade. Before signing Ludwick, the only outfielders on the Reds 25 man roster were Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey. Dave Sappelt would have served as a fourth outfielder, but he was moved to the Cubs in the Sean Marshall deal, leaving the Reds with little depth in the outfield. Chris Heisey is also a more of a fourth outfielder or platoon player, who lacks the on base and power skills required to play left field. His new role will likely land somewhere between fourth outfielder, and platoon player with center fielder Drew Stubbs, which I think is a good fit for his skills. 

Ludwick came cheaper than other outfielders who've signed this offseason. He will get $2.5 million in 2012 with $500K in possible incentives, and a mutual option for 2013. In an offseason where we've seen David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, and Jason Kubel get two deals worth at least $10 million total, the Reds signing of Ludwick seems like a bargain. After enjoying success in his breakout season in 2008 with the Cardinals, he's spent most of his time in San Diego, one of the worst destinations for his power and [lack of] defense. The move to Cincinnati should hide his defense and also bring back some of his power, and hopefully land him somewhere around a two or three win player. 

Walt Jocketty, the General Manager of the Reds, was also the GM of the Cardinals for most of Ludwick's tenure in St. Louis, which I think brings an interesting dynamic. In the NFL this season, we saw the Raiders overpay to acquire Carson Palmer from the Bengals. The Raiders coaching staff at the time, who pushed for the deal, had been with Palmer in Cincinnati, during his run as an upper echelon quarterback. It's evident now that Palmer is past his prime, and didn't deliver what the coaches thought, and most of the staff was let go following the season. Whenever a situation like this arises, I'm always curious to see if Jocketty knows something we don't about Ludwick, or if he's just living in the past. Either way, one year and $2.5 million isn't nearly as crippling to a baseball franchise as two first picks are to a football one, so this deal comes with considerable less risk. 

Signing Ludwick should represent the final major acquisition for the Reds, as their roster seems pretty full. They could still look to add another pitcher, but they'll probably stick to smaller deals to improve the team's depth (the outfield is still pretty thin). With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leaving the division, and Ryan Braun set to miss 50 games, the Reds are positioning themselves to take the division. A successful 2012 could also be the start of a snowball affect, wherein winning the division and making a playoff run could bring in the revenue to retain Phillips, extend Votto before the hits the open market, bring Rolen back for another season or two, and/or bring in another bullpen piece if Marshall and Madson leave. 2012 represents a very important year for the Reds, if their team takes a step in the right direction, it could set them up to retain their core and contend for the next few years.