A.J. Burnett to the Pirates

A.J. Burnett was perhaps the most unlucky pitcher in the Major Leagues in 2011. In his third year in New York, he posted an ERA over 5.00 for the second consecutive season. He fell out of favor with the Yankees during last season, and was make expendable after the team brought in Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda. The Yankees agreed to send him and a large check to the Pirates in exchange for two low grade prospects. 

The prospects going back for Burnett aren't anything special, as this is just a salary dump for the Yankees. Exicardo Coyones is a tweener outfielder, who doesn't have the bat for a corner, but doesn't have the defense for center. Diego Moreno is a pitcher with a lot of arm strength, but one who lacks command. Both of these players were available in the Rule 5 Draft this past December, but neither were picked up. There's nothing to be had with either of them, and they're only included because by definition, "trade" means something has to go both ways. 

But Burnett going to the Pirates is actually very interesting. A pitcher who's made at least 32 starts in each of the past four years shows both durability and effectiveness. In this day and age of max-effort pitching, avoiding injury could be considered a skill, but also being able to make that many starts without being pulled form the rotation shows a talent level which is considerably above replacement level. 

The Mets' Offense in 2012

One unit which I believe may surprise some people in 2012 is the Mets' offense. Last season the offense was overshadowed by the team's overall record (77-85) and ownership situation, but was actually performed pretty well under the radar. They're not going to have Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, or Angel Pagan this season, and haven't gotten anything on the free agent market. But they should get more than 40 games from Ike Davis, replace Angel Pagan's production with Andres Torres, and hopeful for a bounce back year from players like David Wright and Jason Bay.

Last season, the Mets actually finished with the second highest on base percentage in the National League (.335) behind the Cardinals. Their slugging percentage was middle of the pack, at .391. We know that in it's short history that Citi Field has suppressed offense, and when we look at all encompassing statistics that take into account park affects, the Mets offense comes out even more favorably. They were third in the National League in wRC+, at 103. 

They're losing Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, but they do have suitable options to take their spots. Lucas Duda posted good offensive numbers for the Mets in 2011, playing 100 games with a slash line of .292/.370/.482. He showed good patience with a 9.5% BB rate, and made good hard contact, displaying only a 16.4% K rate and .189 ISO. He doesn't offer you anything in the field, but he's a solid hitter who should get better as he enters his age 26 season. 

What to do with the Orioles

Of all of the Major League franchises, the Baltimore Orioles are in the worst situation right now. They're far and away the worst club in the most difficult division in baseball. They're looking up at two big market clubs who are perennial contenders in the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. They are also chasing the Rays, who after a decade of losing, have managed to win ninety-plus games in three of the past four seasons, and have the foundation to continue their success. The Toronto Blue Jays are also firmly better than the Orioles at this time. The Blue Jays were a .500 team last season, and with their young core a year older, have their eyes set on contending for a wild card position this season. 

But being the least talented team at the Major League level isn't the only thing that they have going against them. They also have the worst farm system in the division, which is almost more damning. Going into 2011, the Baltimore farm system was led by a core of young starting pitching prospects who were supposed to bring with them a new era for the club. But the group struggled with injuries, loss of velocity, and effectiveness during the season, diminishing the shine that was previously on the system. 

Meanwhile, their division rivals, the Blue Jays and Rays, both have systems which rate in the top five in most rankings. With their big wallets, a strong farm system isn't as big an issue for the Yankees and the Red Sox, but both teams are trying to get under the luxury tax threshold before the 2014 season. With their days of exorbitant spending possibly coming to an end, they will have to rely on their farm system more. The Red Sox system isn't particularly great, but is on par with the Orioles on it's worst day. The Yankees have more high risk/high reward prospects, but they only need a small percentage of them to reach their potential for their system to supplement the parent club. The Orioles system on the other hand, has two excellent prospects in shortstop Manny Machado and starting pitcher Dylan Bundy, but their system drops off significantly after that. 

How to Attack Free Agency

Although this offseason has been somewhat unique due to the new collective bargaining agreement being implemented at the beginning of it, we can still learn things to apply to next offseason. There have been many contracts in which teams have overpaid for players, and also agreements that seem like bargains for clubs. 

While Roy Oswalt has limited himself somewhat with his geographical requirements, the one year deal that he seems certain to sign will still be below market value for a pitcher of his quality. Oswalt isn't the only free agent who's seen his stock drop as the offseason has progressed. Ryan Madson also settled on a one year deal for only $8.5 million after seeing two pitchers of whom he's better than (Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon) get more years and a higher AAV. Edwin Jackson is on par with Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson talent wise, and saw them get four and five years deals with a 14.5 and 15.4 AAV respectively. Jackson seemed to be an afterthought though, and was forced to sign a one year deal with the Nationals. 

The Ryan Madson and Edwin Jackson deals have been praised by people following the free agent market because of the low dollar amounts, and because of the lack of risk associated with a one year deal. Meanwhile, clubs like the Phillies, who spend big at the beginning of the offseason, have seemed to hamper their clubs. After guaranteeing $50 million to a closer, and a two year deal to a fourth outfielder, the Phillies seemed to try to dump a little bit of salary by trading Wilson Valdez to the Reds.  

Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies

The Rockies found themselves another willing trade partner this Monday. They paired up with the Orioles in an attempt to upgrade a spot in their rotation, at the cost of a decent relief arm. The Rockies acquired Jeremy Guthrie in the deal, and will send Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom over to Baltimore. 

Both clubs believe that this swap helps to move their franchises where they want to go. The Rockies are pushing for the playoffs this season, and view Jeremy Guthrie as an upgrade in the rotation. Guthrie is only under team control for one more year, and since the Rockies got him before the start of the season, they're in line to receive draft pick compensation if he leaves at the end of the season (per the new CBA). 

Jason Hammel is under team control for two more seasons, while Matt Lindstrom is only under contract for 2011, but could be an attractive trade chip at the trade deadline. The perception from the outside looking in on this trade depends entirely on how you view Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Hammel. While Guthrie is great at what he does (eat innings, pitch to contact, keep his walks down), he's nothing more than a middle to back end starter. He doesn't have much upside, since he's a fly ball pitcher who doesn't put up big strikeout numbers. 

Indians add Depth at First with Kotchman and Russ Canzler

Shortly after the Edwin Jackson signing, the Indians jumped at the opportunity to sign Casey Kotchman. They locked him up on a one year deal worth $3 million dollars. By all accounts, the Indians had an offer out to Edwin Jackson, but when he chose the Nationals larger offer, the Indians were quick to finish a deal with Kotchman. 

Kotchman will add another left handed bat to an already lefthand-heavy Cleveland lineup. But if Kotchman can post of numbers that are anything like what he managed to do in 2011 with the Rays, he'll bring an on base percentage boost that the club needs. His defense and contact rates will also represent a chasm between himself and the team. Although the pitching staff isn't as ground ball heavy anymore (due to the hijinks of Roberto Hernandez Heredia), his reputation with the glove at first base should help the lackluster infield defense on days when the remaining ground ballers are on the mound.  

A big problem for Kotchman during his career has been his inconsistent BABIP. By year, since his debut in 2004, his BABIPs have been .245, .275, .169, .305, .272, .283, .229, and .335. In each year he's been one .300, he's been a three win player, while being below replacement level when his BABIP is below .250. With anything in between, he's been a solid player. His high ground ball rate is part of the reason that he doesn't profile for the power that we normally associate with first baseman, but it should help with his on base percentage, which is his offensive calling card. 

Edwin Jackson's One Year Deal with Washington

This Thursday, two of the top remaining free agents found homes of the 2012 baseball season. Edwin Jackson signed with the Nationals, and shortly after, Casey Kotchman signed with the Indians. Jackson helps fill out a thinned Nationals' rotation, with minimal risk for the club.

Jackson's 2011 season was better than the overall numbers look. His ERA wasn't great, and his WHIP looks ugly due to a .330 BABIP. Jackson hasn't lived up to the hype he had when he made his Major League debut on his 20th birthday, but he still has a mid-ninties fastball, and has controlled his walks in the past three years. He doesn't have the strikeout rate you'd expect for a guy with his stuff, but he generates enough ground balls to make up for it. 

Earlier this offseason, I wrote about the bright future in Washington. I like the future for the Nationals, but didn't think that their window for contention would open until the 2013 season. By then, they should have Bryce Harper established at the Major League level, be getting a full season from Jordan Zimmermann, and be getting at least something close to a full season from stephen Strasburg. Adding Gio Gonzalez may have accelerated their window, and if they would have landed Prince Fielder, I could have been onboard with them making some noise in the National League East 2012. But without Prince, I'm not sure this team can contend. The incentive of the extra wild card team (which hasn't been officially announced yet) may have persuaded them to setup for a run this season, but a lot of their core players are still young, and I think that they will really blossom in 2013.