Friday, February 3, 2012

Indians add Depth at First with Kotchman and Russ Canzler

Shortly after the Edwin Jackson signing, the Indians jumped at the opportunity to sign Casey Kotchman. They locked him up on a one year deal worth $3 million dollars. By all accounts, the Indians had an offer out to Edwin Jackson, but when he chose the Nationals larger offer, the Indians were quick to finish a deal with Kotchman. 

Kotchman will add another left handed bat to an already lefthand-heavy Cleveland lineup. But if Kotchman can post of numbers that are anything like what he managed to do in 2011 with the Rays, he'll bring an on base percentage boost that the club needs. His defense and contact rates will also represent a chasm between himself and the team. Although the pitching staff isn't as ground ball heavy anymore (due to the hijinks of Roberto Hernandez Heredia), his reputation with the glove at first base should help the lackluster infield defense on days when the remaining ground ballers are on the mound.  

A big problem for Kotchman during his career has been his inconsistent BABIP. By year, since his debut in 2004, his BABIPs have been .245, .275, .169, .305, .272, .283, .229, and .335. In each year he's been one .300, he's been a three win player, while being below replacement level when his BABIP is below .250. With anything in between, he's been a solid player. His high ground ball rate is part of the reason that he doesn't profile for the power that we normally associate with first baseman, but it should help with his on base percentage, which is his offensive calling card. 

Kotchman's skill set matches up very well with what the Indians very looking for, with the only real downside being that the lineup is now even more left handed. The Tribe did try to remedy this, as they also traded for Russ Canzler. Canzler was a late round pick, who got tagged with the Quad-A label, even though he's only had one full season in Triple-A. 

I can understand where the label comes from though. He seems like to have one of the two profiles I see for a Quad-A player. He's a right handed hitter, who's limited athletically, and his strikeout rate has been a red flag during him minor league career, even though he's been old at every stop. The limited athleticism limits him to a corner spot, which puts more pressure on the bat for success. And limited athleticism usually comes with limited bat speed, which is most likely the reason for his strikeout rate. Having this profile while also being right handed is even more damning, since 73% of pitchers in The Bigs are also right handed. 

Canzler has had a tough journey making it this far, but going up against the best players in the world is probably a task which is above him. In a small sample size though, anything can happen, and he does bring a little defensive flexibility. He can play all of the corner positions, and while it might be in a Ty Wigginton sort of way, there is some value in that since teams carry such a shallow bench in this day and age with their 12 or 13 man pitching staffs. Canzler will probably prove to be insurance for Shelley Duncan, but could carve out some at bats in Cleveland this season if things break right for him. 

The Indians first base situation took a step in the right direction when the calendar turned over to February. They aren't playing o the same field as their division rival the Tigers are, but they seem to be making wise decisions to improve the roster around the margins. Detroit still has the star power that the Indians lack, but the Indians have the deeper roster, and are better prepared for injuries and the like.

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