Both clubs believe that this swap helps to move their franchises where they want to go. The Rockies are pushing for the playoffs this season, and view Jeremy Guthrie as an upgrade in the rotation. Guthrie is only under team control for one more year, and since the Rockies got him before the start of the season, they're in line to receive draft pick compensation if he leaves at the end of the season (per the new CBA).
Jason Hammel is under team control for two more seasons, while Matt Lindstrom is only under contract for 2011, but could be an attractive trade chip at the trade deadline. The perception from the outside looking in on this trade depends entirely on how you view Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Hammel. While Guthrie is great at what he does (eat innings, pitch to contact, keep his walks down), he's nothing more than a middle to back end starter. He doesn't have much upside, since he's a fly ball pitcher who doesn't put up big strikeout numbers.
Hammel was near a four win player in 2009 and 2010, but saw his strikeout, walk, and ground ball rates all regress in 2011. His overall numbers form 2010 to 2011 don't look too different, because his regression was masked in a 50 point drop in BABIP from season to season. The trip from Coors Field to Camden Yards isn't that much of an upgrade, not to mention he'll be seeing a lot of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays. The Orioles front office is gambling that Hammel's 2011 season was an anomaly, and not an indication of what his performance will be moving forward.
After the trade of Huston Street, I wouldn't call the Colorado bullpen an area of strength. They have a few nice pieces, but like all bullpens, we'll have to see how effective it is as the season plays out. The piece they're losing, Matt Lindstrom, is a decent relief pitcher, who's spent time in the closers role, earning forty-five saves in his career. He's still effective against righties, with a 20% strikeout rate in 2011 (only 9% against lefties). His power fastball/slider combination is that of a prototypical relief pitcher. He can still bring it in the mid to high nineties, but has struggled with his control at times.
The acquisition of Jeremy Guthrie fits in with the other moves that the team has made this offseason. Every pitcher they've acquired (Kevin Slowey, Josh Outman, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, Jamie Moyer, and Jeremy Guthrie) is considered a fly ball pitcher. This is counterintuitive to what most associate with success in Coors Field. But this franchise has tried many different strategies to assemble a pitching staff which can have success at their home park. They've tried to assemble pitchers who relied a lot on their fastball, they've tried changeup specialists, and they've tried to get extreme ground ballers. Nothing has really worked for them, and assembling a fly ball staff may be their next step.
A possible thread of logic behind their thinking could be that balls batted into the air tend to turn into outs more often than ground balls. The thin air in Coors Field has helped it post one of the highest BABIPs for pitchers nearly every year. Colorado's front office could possibly think that assembling fly ball pitchers could help to reduce their BABIP. But home runs aren't accounted for in BABIP, so even if they do lower their team BABIP, their overall results may not improve.
The salaries included in this deal are $8.2 million going to Colorado, while Baltimore will pay Hammel and Lindstrom around $8.5 million. So this isn't any team taking advantage of a salary dump like we've seen Colorado on both sides of this offseason in dealing Huston Street and acquiring Marco Scutaro.
While a lot of people think that Dan O'Dowd got a steal here, but I kind of like this deal from the Baltimore side. They gain an extra year of control of a starting pitcher, and get a Matt Lindstrom who could bring back value at the trade deadline if the right situation arrises. If Jason Hammel can combine the batted ball luck he found in 2011 with the skills he displayed in seasons prior, Baltimore could parlay him into a decent prospect. Or they could just get their two years out of him, and let him walk when he's a free agent, since they don't look like they'll be contending anytime soon.
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