Last season, the Mets actually finished with the second highest on base percentage in the National League (.335) behind the Cardinals. Their slugging percentage was middle of the pack, at .391. We know that in it's short history that Citi Field has suppressed offense, and when we look at all encompassing statistics that take into account park affects, the Mets offense comes out even more favorably. They were third in the National League in wRC+, at 103.
They're losing Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, but they do have suitable options to take their spots. Lucas Duda posted good offensive numbers for the Mets in 2011, playing 100 games with a slash line of .292/.370/.482. He showed good patience with a 9.5% BB rate, and made good hard contact, displaying only a 16.4% K rate and .189 ISO. He doesn't offer you anything in the field, but he's a solid hitter who should get better as he enters his age 26 season.
Ruben Tejada will be where the Mets turn to replace Jose Reyes. He showed a good eye and good contact skills at the plate, managing to keep his strikeouts down while walking in 9% of his plate appearances over 631 at-bats with the Mets. He's only 22, and should still have room to improve as he learns the game and learns the pitchers of the league. Defensively, he should actually be an improvement over Jose Reyes. Reyes lost some of his range with his leg injuries, and is no longer a plus defender. Tejada rates well both by metrics and the eye test, and has the potential to be a first division defensive shortstop.
Another reason to like the Mets offense this season is the reconstruction of the outfield walls. Citi Field has been a tremendous asset to the Mets' pitchers since the park opened, but hitters haven't been nearly as enthusiastic about the outfield dimensions. Now, bringing in the outfield walls will also help the opponents offense, and hurt the Mets' pitchers just as much. But I'm only concerned with the Mets' offense here, which should see their doubles and home runs tick up a bit.
The biggest beneficiaries of the park change should be David Wright and Jason Bay. In two of his three years in Citi Field, Wright has failed to hit 15 home runs, with two of his three seasons accounting for his two lowest HR/FB ratios of his career. Back injuries has chipped away at his overall game in recent years, but he still puts enough balls into the air (over 40% the past two years) and has the power to reach the mid-to-high-twenties in home runs.
Jason Bay seemingly lost all of his power when he signed with the Mets. But his gain from the park changes should be two fold. For one, he won't have to cover as much ground in the outfield, and the Mets won't have to worry about his terrible defense as much. The other is the hopeful return of some of his power. His HR/FB dropped from 19.7% with the Red Sox in 2009, but dropped to 5.1% and 8.8% in 2010 and 2011 with the Mets. This has resulted in his slugging percentage dropping to 100 points below his career average with the Mets. Unlike David Wright, who's still in his 20's, Bay is going into his age 33 season. I'm not as optimistic about his chances to rebound to his prior form, but I think he could bounce back a little, and possibly get back between 20-25 home runs. If both Wright and Bay bounce back with the power a little bit thanks to the fences, it would not only help their slugging percentage, but their batting averages as well, which is the anchor for on base percentage.
As a team, I do like what how the Mets performed in 2011. Their team K/BB rate was an impressive 1.9. They hit for a decent average, and got on base at a good clip. Hopefully their power will tick up in 2012 to help round the whole package into form. Considering that no Met played in more than 126 games in 2011, I also think that it's not a reach to say that the Mets' starting lineup should gain a bit of production with the benefit of consistent playing time and by avoiding injury.
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