But being the least talented team at the Major League level isn't the only thing that they have going against them. They also have the worst farm system in the division, which is almost more damning. Going into 2011, the Baltimore farm system was led by a core of young starting pitching prospects who were supposed to bring with them a new era for the club. But the group struggled with injuries, loss of velocity, and effectiveness during the season, diminishing the shine that was previously on the system.
Meanwhile, their division rivals, the Blue Jays and Rays, both have systems which rate in the top five in most rankings. With their big wallets, a strong farm system isn't as big an issue for the Yankees and the Red Sox, but both teams are trying to get under the luxury tax threshold before the 2014 season. With their days of exorbitant spending possibly coming to an end, they will have to rely on their farm system more. The Red Sox system isn't particularly great, but is on par with the Orioles on it's worst day. The Yankees have more high risk/high reward prospects, but they only need a small percentage of them to reach their potential for their system to supplement the parent club. The Orioles system on the other hand, has two excellent prospects in shortstop Manny Machado and starting pitcher Dylan Bundy, but their system drops off significantly after that.
With a Major League roster that isn't competitive, a minor league system which doesn't seem capable of giving the team the necessary boost, and a division with four of the best teams in the league, it's hard to imagine the Orioles being competitive anytime in the near future. The Orioles need to realize this, and establish a time frame for when they want to be competitive. Identifying their time frame, or at least recognizing that it's nowhere close, is the first step to recovery for this team.
We saw in their own division with the Rays, that it took ten seasons of below .500 ball before they rose to the top, and went worst to first. Of course, they didn't have a great plan for this until the Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon brain trust was brought on board following the 2004 season. Still, there was some semblance of a talent base amassed through having a top five pick in the draft every season.
The Pirates have been perennially rebuilding since the early nineties, but seem to have a talent base now that they feel comfortable trying to build something around. They haven't posted a winning record for some twenty seasons, but appear to have a promising future in front of them. It's been twenty years for them, due to lack of a firm plan, and questionable decision making.
The Washington Nationals were 81-81 during their first year in the nation's capitol, but haven't make it back to that mark since. Like the Pirates, they seem to have a bright future in front of them. They are hoping to leverage two number one overall draft picks into the core of a contending team. The Bartolo Colon trade with the Indians set their franchise back, but the ownership at the time didn't care, because they were on the way out and wanted to make an attempt at a championship before they left. It's took from the time of that trade until now, about ten years, for them to have a Major League club worthy of contention.
These are just a few examples of many team's who've gone through a rebuilding process in recent years. These clubs were in a similar situation to that of the present day Orioles. Their franchises had to basically start form scratch, and rebuild their organization on the fly from the ground up. For Baltimore to do this, it's going to take a lot of work, and more importantly, they're going to have to commit to it.
By committing to a rebuilding process, I mean they have to layout a plan and follow through with it. This is a problem that a lot of teams face during the rebuilding process. At the first sign of success, they abandon their plan, and start spending money on free agents. The previous Rays' regime did this, Baltimore did it to an extent with Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, and Vladimir Guerrero, and all it does is win you a few extra games, hurt your draft position in the following years draft (not to mention losing draft picks in some cases), and possibly hinder the growth of your young players.
The days of trading away young pitchers for Mark Reynolds, or signing a past-his-prime Derrek Lee to keep the team afloat need to end. The only players that the Orioles should be looking to add in free agency should be coming off of the scrap heap. They shouldn't be looking to add any players through free agency who could cost them a draft pick, or cause them to win more games and move back in the draft. And the money that they don't spend this offseason, can still be spent next offseason, it doesn't just disappear into the ether.
They need to bring talent into the system, but not expensive talent that's close to or past the age of thirty. Their signings of Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yen Chen are understandable with the coming limitations on international talent acquisition, and either of the two could bring back something in a trade if they pitch well.
In fact, the Orioles have a lot of pieces who could bring back decent returns in trades. Adam Jones and Nick Markakis could make great complimentary pieces to a championship caliber club. Matt Wieters is still growing into what could ultimately be an all-star catcher. Jim Johnson pitched well out of the pen last season, and some may see Kevin Gregg as an attractive option because of his career saves mark. Many of their bullpen pieces could be attractive at the deadline, when team's usually pay top dollar for bullpen help.
But the fact is that none of these players are going to be around the next time that the Orioles are competitive, and they should all be made available, and traded when their values are at their highest. If this means trading guys with multiple years of team control, so be it. We saw the haul that Oakland got back when they traded away their young pitchers this offseason, if Baltimore can gets packages of that caliber for any of their young players, they need to do it.
None of their young arms are proven enough to shop yet, but Adam Jones is coming off of a career year, and has only two more season until he reaches free agency. As an overrated defender who lacks on base skills, now is the prime time to move him. But the Orioles were smart not to take on Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado from the Braves. Jurrjens would get shelled in the American League East, and neither are younger than Jones. Much like what the Oakland Athletics have done in recent years, trading away players as soon as they have any sustained success, the Baltimore Orioles need to continue to multiply their assets, until the talent level in their organization matches that of the rest of their division.
In order to get the best return for their trades, they're going to have to improve their scouting department. With the position that they're in, the Orioles should be focusing more money into their scouting department than just about any other team. They need to bring in the best young talent that they can get their hands on, and scouting other organizations and amateur talent in the draft should be at the top of their agenda.
There are going to be some ugly seasons, but they're an unavoidable stage of this process. It's better for the franchise's long term outlook to be a doormat in the coming seasons. They're in such a dyer position right now, that they could see Manny Machado hit free agency before they post a winning season. By multiplying assets, scouting better, drafting better, and putting a stop to frivolous spending, they can help themselves shorten their timetable to contention, and get baseball in Baltimore back to where it used to be.
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