If I had a vote for these awards, this is what my ballot would look like. They're based on the regular season statistics, but I couldn't care less about RBIs or Wins. I don't believe that you have to be on a winning team to win the MVP, because we have an award for team performance, it's called the playoffs. I think that a pitcher should be able to win the MVP, but as you can see, I don't think that this is the year. I'm also going to give my preseason pick for the award, what my end of the season ballot would look like, and then give a little explanation and justification for my picks.
Most Valuable Player
Preseason Pick: Miguel Cabrera
End of Season Ballot:
- Jose Bautista
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Justin Verlander
- Curtis Granderson
- Miguel Cabrera
- Ian Kinsler
- CC Sabathia
- Dustin Pedroia
- Evan Longoria
- Adrian Gonzalez
For me I view the American League MVP race as a two horse race. Jacoby Ellsbury might be the most complete player, but when you lead the league in slugging, and are 1 point off the lead in on base percentage, you have a good chance of getting my vote. Bautista isn't the prototypical slugger though in that he isn't a liability in the field, and isn't relegated to going station to station on the base paths. Ellsbury is a fine pick, but he's giving up about 75 points of OBP and 50 points of SLG, and I don't think that his defense makes up for that.
Cy Young
Preseason Pick: Justin Verlander
End of Season Ballot:
- Justin Verlander
- CC Sabathia
- C.J. Wilson
- Dan Haren
- Felix Hernandez
- Jered Weaver
I've been a Verlander fan for a few years. This award might actually be unanimous, but if you look into the stats, Sabathia has been almost as good as Verlander this season. He doesn't have the wins, but Sabathia's xFIP is lower than Verlander's, and their BABIPs are .236 for Verlander and .318 for Sabathia. Sabathia also generated more ground balls, but Verlander can live with more fly balls in his park. This is also a two horse race, even though on the surface it looks like Verlander in a landslide.
Rookie of the Year Preseason Pick: Jeremy Hellickson
End of Season Ballot:
- Eric Hosmer
- Dustin Ackley
- Michael Pineda
- Mark Trumbo
- Ivan Nova
The American League Rookie of the Year had a very deep class this year. Pineda started the season very strong, but seemed to hit a wall in the second half. Mark Trumbo hit 29 home runs, but it's hard to justify a .290 OBP at first base. Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson were my choices for fifth on the ballot, but I chose Nova, because Hellickson's peripheral numbers show that he got very lucky. Ivan Nova had a good second half, and overall a better season. For the top two spots I have Hosmer and Ackley. Any advantage that Ackley had in OBP was given away to Hosmer in SLG, and whilee Ackley plays a more difficult position, Hosmer played in 38 more games, and gets my vote.
Manager of the Year Joe Madden
This isn't very difficult. Madden isn't afraid to be unconventional, and gets the most out of his roster. He does't hurt his team by sacrifice bunting in the early innings. He uses his bullpen very effectively, and doesn't seem to really care about the save statistic. He does his best to put his players in a position to succeed.
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