They've tried to reinforce their outfield by trading for Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, but haven't found a solution at shortstop. The shortstop market was deep this offseason, and even though all the options besides Jose Reyes had serious warts, they were still better options than Mike Fontenot or any other aging veteran that they acquire who can't hit or play shortstop anymore. But the Giants have been relatively quiet this offseason, and focused most of their attention on locking up their home grown pitching staff.
Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been at the top of the San Francisco rotation since Lincecum had his first full season in 2008. In signing them to longterm deal, the Giants hope to buy out Lincecum's final two arbitration years, get somewhat of a discount (since they're not competing with other teams on the free agent market), and get some cost certainty for the franchise moving forward.
The Giants have seemed to be putting more effort into signing Lincecum than Cain, as we've heard rumblings of deals between Big Time Timmy Jim and the Giants, but not much about Cain. Lincecum reportedly turned down a five year $100 million deal recently, and is looking for a shorter deal so he can hit the free agent market while still in his prime.
I'm not sure how a player can turn down $100 million, but Lincecum did, and recently agreed to a two year $40.5 million dollar deal, so he can reach free agency quicker. He'll be a 30 year old free agent when this new contract ends, and i doubt he'll give San Francisco a substantial home town discount when that time comes. If he were willing to give them that discount, I think he would have agreed to the five year deal. Or maybe Lincecum is hoping that once he's in his thirties he'll be worth more in the eyes of Brian Sabean.
Matt Cain, on the other hand, will probably be closer be more in the $15-16 range. He's actually a year younger than Lincecum, even though he debuted two seasons prior. Cain is a pitcher who I like more than most people. Cain has traditionally been an extreme fly ball pitcher (2011 was the first year he generated more ground balls than fly balls), and most people believe that spacious AT&T Park is his biggest asset.
Most people know that Cain also has an uncanny ability to limits home runs. His career HR/FB rate is 6.5% (league average is typically between 10% and 11%), and he's never finished a season with a mark above 8.4%. This little trick isn't just a product of his park either, as for his career he HR/FB rate of 6.3% at home and 6.8% on the road. No one can pinpoint what the cause of this is, with people believing all sorts of things. The best reasoning that I've heard is that he just has great fastball control at the top of the zone, generating weaker contact on balls in the air, but that's just a theory. As such, his xFIP is never going to be friendly to him (as it adjusts for home run rate, which Cain has 'beaten'), but his FIP and ERA are similar (3.69 and 3.35 respectively) for his career. His career BABIP, .260, is also in line with what should be expected. BABIP is generally around .290-300 for most pitchers, but for a fly ball pitcher, especially one who gets outs when others are giving up home runs, a lower BABIP is expected, as fly balls get turned into outs at a greater clip than ground balls.
Cain could look to get a deal similar to Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Justin Verlander got if he hits free agency after this season. He'll make $15 million this season, meaning he also probably won't be looking to give the Giants a hometown discount, as he's already making close to his open market value, and probably isn't interested in taking a pay cut. But if the Giants were willing to offer the big bucks for Lincecum, I think they'll be able to scrape together the coin to get Cain signed.
Cain might also be a better bet moving forward than Lincecum. Lincecum's strikeout and walk numbers have been going the wrong direction the past three years. He had a career low in strikeout rate at 9.12 K/9 and the second highest walk rate of his career 3.57 BB/9 in 2011. Only in his rookie year did Lincecum walk more hitters, and his ground ball rate has been holding steady at about 47%. A lot of his trouble seems to be connected to his fastball velocity. In his first full season in the Majors, his fastball averaged 94 mph. It was down to a career low in 2010 at 91.2, but bounced back to 92.2 mph last season.
Cain's fastball has also dropped throughout his career, but he's only experienced a 1.6 mph drop over the course of his career. Cain's walk rate is also stabilizing with two years around 2.5 BB/9 over the past two years, after being closer to 3.5 BB/9 in the early part of his career. Matt Cain seems to be entering his peak, while Tim Lincecum seems to be possibility flaming out a bit. Although Lincecum is still a better overall pitcher than Cain, Cain might have the finer career going forward.
If the Giants are willing to offer Tim Lincecum $100 million over five years, they should be able to find a way to lock up Matt Cain. However, since Cain is younger, he may not be as attractive to the Giants. They didn't do any favors for themselves by back-loading Cain's current three year deal to give him $15 million this season (he made under $12 million the first two years combined), but they definitely have the resources to extend him. Lincecum will be looking for top dollar on the open market, and if the Giants can get Cain to sign a long term deal, I think they'll be less desperate to retain Lincecum when the time comes.
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