A Strange Offseason in Colorado

Along with the Chicago White Sox, the Colorado Rockies have been one of the most puzzling teams this Winter. They've been active, but with no discernible plan. Many of the moves that Colorado has made look to make the team older, more expensive, and less flexible. Others seem to be bad personal decisions which show a misunderstanding about how they home environment plays. Certain moves have hinted at rebuilding, while others are typical of a team who's interested in winning. It's concerning because when team's make moves without a plan or goal, they usually end up stagnating and slowing the progress of the franchise. 

It all started in late November, when the team traded away Chris Iannetta for Tyler Chatwood, and signed Ramon Hernandez with a corresponding transaction. Trading Iannetta was understandable, as the team and player didn't seem to ever be on the same page. Iannetta was bounced from the Rockies to Colorado Springs and back, sat on the bench, and struggled at times. Ramon Hernandez is a serviceable player, and fine replacement for Iannetta, but is also seven years older. Tyler Chatwood has always been young for his level, but has never showed dominance or posted good strikeout to walk numbers, and profiles more as a reliever than a starter in Colorado. 

Their next move in early December was to acquire Kevin Slowey for a player to be named later. Most players to be named later aren't anything of consequence, so the Rockies most likely didn't give anything up anything for Slowey, but Slowey is a pitcher who's never struck out many (6.67 K/9 career), and holds a career fly ball rate of 48%. Unless the Rockies have a plan to change the way that Slowey attacks hitters, it's borderline delusional to expect him to succeed in Coors Field with a fly ball rate which will probably top 50% in the mountain air. 

The next day, the Rockies traded Huston Street to the Padres. Trading high priced relief pitchers is usually a sign that a team isn't trying to win, as the marginal wins that they would provide is usually not worth the high price tag. The move seemed like a salary dump, as the prospects they got back aren't very highly regarded. It seemed to indicate that they Rockies wanted to save money, and weren't looking to compete in 2012. 

The day after that, the Rockies finished a busy week by trading Ian Stewart to the Chicago Cubs for outfielder Tyler Colvin. This move seemed out of place since they already gave away Ty Wigginton to Philadelphia and were left baron at third base. Colvin also didn't seem to have a position to play, as the Rockies were already seemingly full in the outfield. 

The problem was compounded with their next big move, signing Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer represents the type of player who I'm always hesitant about in free agency. He's in his thirties, was never a great player, doesn't play good defense, and has his value built up for his off the field and clubhouse presence. It's the type of player who is more likely to be on waivers than finish out his contract. However, giving Cuddyer over $10 million a year make it clear that he was going to start, and that an outfielder would likely have to be traded. 

Before they fixed their outfield problem, the team signed Casey Blake. Blake isn't any better than Ian Stewart, and is definitely not an upside play or a player who'll be with the team down the road. He can fill a hole for a year, but I don't see the logic between trading Ian Stewart and signing Casey Blake for a year unless they are confident that top prospect Nolan Arenado will be ready to start 2013 at the big league level, which is a stretch for a player who played 2011 in High-A. 

Seth Smith is actually a player who I like a lot. He hits right handed pitching well with a career .882 OPS against them, and can play average defense in an outfield corner. He faired well last season in his first chance at regular playing time (he was mostly a platoon player in years past) with a .284/.347/.483 slash line. He was the odd man out though, and traded to Oakland for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman. 

In a vacuum, I think that Seth Smith is a better player than both Moscoso and Outman. But considering that Outman and Moscoso are moving to Coors Field, this seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Moscoso and Outman have 56% and 44% fly ball rates respectively, and each has a strikeout to walk rate below 2:1 for their career. That profile can work in Oakland, but tends to fail in Colorado. 

Unless there's an endgame that we're not privy to, the Rockies offseason seems like a disaster. Their position players have gotten older and more expensive, while the pitchers that they've added are fly ball guys, who don't profile for success in Colorado. The pitcher that the Rockies should be looking to add need to be ground ball pitchers who limit walks. 

This Rockies moves this offseason seem to be devoid of a plan, and lack a basic understanding of how their park plays. Unless they plan to start the humidor now, and have it set to 3000% for the duration of the season, I'm not sure how this team plans to succeed. They have a superstar in Troy Tulowitzki and star in Carlos Gonzalez, and in recent years have been unable to put a legitimate team around them, struggling with depth at the back end of the roster, and especially in the rotation. After trading away Ubaldo Jimenez, and with Jorge De La Rosa set to miss the first half of this season, their pithing doesn't seem any better this season. The Ubaldo trade with Cleveland made them younger, but the moves they've made in the field have made them older and doesn't seem to match up. We'll see how they do this year, but I think this offseason could be looked at as a disaster in the future, and one that retards the progress of the team moving forward.