Red Sox Come up Short with Melancon

The Astros and Red Sox both have new front offices, but both teams are still aiming for the same goals as their last regime. The Red Sox are still gunning for the title, while the Astros are trying to rebuild their roster into something that resembles a Major League team. Yesterday these two teams agreed to a deal that sent Mark Melancon to Boston in exchange for Kyle Weiland and Jed Lowrie.

In their rebuilding efforts, the Astros have never gotten a true impact type talent, instead opting for large packages of prospects who are of lesser talent. In the past few years, for example, the Astros sent Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence to Philadelphia without receiving Dominic Brown in either deal. They also sent Michael Bourn to Atlanta without getting any of the Braves upper-echalon pitching talent. The Astros did get a lot of talent back in their deals for these three players, but none of the pieces profile to be more than Big League regulars. 

In the Melancon deal though, the Astros got back a good haul. In my view, Melancon is a high risk reliever with little upside. He has a herky-jerky motion (which has been slightly smoothed out recently), and a history of injuries. He hasn't had any injuries of note since his Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season, but I'm still not convinced that he's totally past his injury history. He's not an option to be a starter, and I don't think the Red Sox will trust him to be a closer in the American League East. I think he'll end up in the eighth inning, as the Red Sox will continue to explore the market and will eventually land Andrew Bailey or Ryan Madson. 

Kyle Weiland is a pitcher who's situation reminds me a lot of Ian Kennedy from his days with the Yankees. The Red Sox never believed in Kyle Weiland as anything more than a fifth starter or reliever, which is similar to what Kennedy's performance dictated in his 60 innings with a 6 ERA with the Yankees. The Yankees shipped Kennedy out to the National League, where Kennedy found success. Now, Kennedy aged closer to his prime and developed in the past two years, so not all of his success is because of the switch in leagues, but it did help. Weiland will be 25 next season, and should start the season in the Astros rotation. Against the softer competition of the National League central, I could see him being a decent back end of the rotation option. He also has the stuff to be a good relief option with upside which is comparable to that of Melancon. I could see Weiland starting for a year or two with decent results while the Astros rebuild their roster, and possibly shifting to the bullpen if the Astros get better options for the rotation. 

Jed Lowrie has a history of injury, but when healthy can play a middle of the diamond position. He should be the Astros starting shortstop in 2012, as his only competition for the position is Angel Sanchez. From a pure value perspective, Lowrie should provide more value to Houston than Melancon will for Boston if he stays relatively healthy and plays over 120 games. He's a fringy defender at shortstop, but can adequately man second or third base if needed. He's a switch hitter, who has his lefties better throughout his career. In Boston, he was blocked at shortstop by Marco Scutaro, and had Jose Iglesias breathing down his neck in AAA. A trade was probably the only thing (excluding an injury) that would give him the chance to play every day.

The Red Sox replaced Lowrie's spot on the roster about five minutes after the trade by signing Little Nicky Punto.  Punto is an above average defender all around the infield, which is something that the Red Sox lacked from their bench in 2011.  He's also somewhat offensively challenged though, and I don't predict he'll put an on base percentage or slugging percentage over .330. 

This trade might prove to be the move that cements Daniel Bard into the rotation. I'm not a fan of that move, as Bard hasn't started since A-Ball, which was a disaster. He has a low arm slot, and will probably have trouble getting lefties out consistently. That low arm slot provides deception, which is a big part of Bard's game. When facing a lineup multiple times the deception of his low arm slot won't be as effective and I think Bard will eventually end up back in the bullpen. But it seem that the Red Sox are determined to give him a chance in the rotation. 

Overall, I'm never a fan of trading assets for relief pitchers, and think the Red Sox gave up way to much for Mark Melancon. The good news for Boston is that the value they did give up was surplus, and came from players who didn't have a definite role with the club in 2012 or the future. The Astros didn't have any use for a "closer" since they'll probably be close to 100 wins again in 2012, and did well to leverage a good season by Mark Melancon into two players who had fallen out of favor with the Red Sox. It was a shrewd move, at least compared to the Astros' recent history, and a good sign of things to come if they continue to operate in this manor.