So since Jim Thome hit his 600th home run on Monday night, and since then there's been a lot of talk about whether or not he's a hall of famer or not. I'm sorry, but wasn't he a hall of famer when he hit number 500?
When judging hall of fame credentials, I think that there are two things to look for. The length of a player's career, and the peak of the player's career. Thome definitely has the length, with this being his twenty first season in the league. He's not hanging on as a shell of his former self like so many others do. His production has dropped off, but his on base percentage over the last three years in .380, and his slugging percentage is .533. Neither of those are more than 25 points below his career averages. His career batting average is only .277, which is respectable, but a lot of people that think batting average is the best stat for determining how often a player got on base. These people have never heard of on base percentage apparently.
Thome also had a pretty dominant peak to his career. From 1995-2007 he never posted an OPS below .900 except for 2005 where he missed most of the year with an elbow injury. His best year came in his last year with the Indians in 2002. That year he hit .304/.445/.667 with 52 home runs and nearly a 1:1 K/BB rate. His OPS+ for the year was 197, which led the league and shows that even in the steroid era, this was a phenomenal year. He never won an MVP award, and actually never finished better than sixth in the vote, but this is mostly due to the slight retardation of the voters (it's only been in recent years that they've figured out that wins for a pitcher aren't the best way to measure performance). He only made five all-star teams, but much like MVP awards, I don't put much stock into that. Fans vote for the all-star game, and in the AL, if you're not in the AL East, good luck.
This past year, the only position player to make the hall of fame was Roberto Alomar. Alomar was a great player, and many people thought he should be a first ballot hall of famer. Alomar has a career wins above replacement of 68.0. Thome's career WAR is currently 71.0. In 2009, Andre Dawson was the only player inducted into the hall, and his career WAR was only 62.3. Thome's career WAR is built largely on his OBP, which is over .400 for his career. The value of this wasn't recognized until half way through his career. His OBP is reflected in his career wOBA of .403. wOBA measures a player's total offensive performance and is to be viewed on the same scale as on base percentage.
The people who say that Thome has been a DH his whole career aren't remembering the whole story. He was a third baseman for the first six years of his career, and then was a first baseman for nine years. He's only been a full time DH since he returned to the American League in 2006. His early seasons were probably overlooked because he was always over shadowed by Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez on those mid-to-late nineties Indians teams.
Ken Griffey Jr. has 630 homeruns, and is currently 5th all time. If Thome plays out this year and next year, he could pass Griffey. Alex Rodriguez would also most likely pass Griffey before Thome comes up for the HOF vote, but if Thome were to pass Griffey, I think it would really help his case for the hall. Thome, of all players, would benefit the most by playing as long as he can. Not only will it add to his counting stats, but in the future, hopefully voters learn a little and realize OBP is more important than BA, and that awards and all-star appearances don't define a career.
Everyone who plays with Thome recalls the time with him in a positive light. By all accounts, he's a great teammate in every aspect. He's also never been linked with steroid use, in an era where home run records haven't been as majestic as in previous years.
Around the League:
I watched the Cubs vs Astros game yesterday. Wow, the Cubs had the bases loaded and no outs twice, and didn't score once in those situations. I watch a good share of Cubs games because in the afternoon, they're the only thing on. Their ability to not score a run when there is a runner on second with less than two outs is epic.
Special Shout out:
Shout out to my blog's #1 fan Brittany. For your loyal reading, I will buy you three cases of natural light, and then proceed to drink most of it myself.
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